Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-10 09:49:51 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.9% (3d) | Alignment: 29% (2 aligned, 5 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | DIX 0.479 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.80 call-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +5.1B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 38% β narrow participation, rally is fragile |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold -0.5% neutral Β· real yield 2.43% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.87 normal, SPY/DXY -0.37 normal, SPY/TNX -0.45 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.47 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 17.5 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 149 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.55 dealer stress |
| Inflation | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Stagflation score 26 β moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d -0.9% stable, MOVE 77 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.67% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose |
Divergence read: Cautious regime with SPY slipping, but dark pool, gamma, and correlations flash bullish β 5 of 7 signals refuse to confirm the decline.
Market Status
Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 66/100 (Mixed) | Signal-price divergence detected: 5 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $99, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.479; GEX positive at 5.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.5 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $758.84 | 50 SMA $758.02 | 200 SMA $713.18 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $763.93
- QQQ: $710.11 | 50 SMA $711.17 | 200 SMA $658.90 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $716.28
- IWM: $288.59 | 50 SMA $296.74 | 200 SMA $273.27 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $264.0
- VIX: 17.54 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.920%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $758.84 | 43.46 | 15.4 | $763.93 | Bearish | 2.71 |
| QQQ | $710.11 | 50.20 | 16.0 | $716.28 | Bearish | 2.16 |
| IWM | $288.59 | 32.02 | 10.9 | $264.00 | Bearish | 4.10 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.54 | 52.48 | 22.7 | $11.08 | Neutral | 0.98 |
| TNX | 49.20 | 70.44 | 20.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $400.80 | 43.07 | 37.0 | $403.00 | Bearish | 3.81 |
| DXY | 99.05 | 52.32 | 38.1 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $58.65 | 52.29 | 10.3 | $45.81 | Neutral | 0.87 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.479
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.12B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.67% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.40% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 37.6%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 58.6%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 490
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.3%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.7%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 94.7% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 61.1% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 52.6% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 50.8% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 44.6% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 34.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 29.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 25.4% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 20.0% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 13.8% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 11.9% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $99.38 (5d: +8.8%)
- Brent Crude: $104.67 | Spread: $5.29
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1400/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.7600/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $55.18/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $65.03
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.00
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.868 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.374 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.445 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.473 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.74
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.23 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 296,645.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 238,633.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.80 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $40.6B
- Gamma Call Wall: $770 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $758.84)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -75,941 contracts (Z +0.70, as of 2026-09-01)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.1% (as of 2026-09-02)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.92%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.08 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.05
- Growth vs Value: 0.94
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.41% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.37%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 26/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6737.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $967.9B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,769B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,861B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,179B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,809B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $76,866 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $99.38 β energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $153.61 (vs 20d avg 134.06, +2.7Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 149 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] SPY (757.82) dropped below ZGL (763.93) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [INFO] SPY (758.17) reclaimed ZGL (756.02) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~319h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~55h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hormuz_oil_brent_price has printed the same value (96.02) for 5 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=159186B avg=117887B
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.58%
- Median Return: +0.30%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 284.057 | Prev: 286.279
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-10-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β3.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β6.8% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (1):
[1] Copper: Record prices with real constraints - NBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/copper-record-prices-with-real-constraints-nbc-202609101343 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 13:43:37 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[BREAKING] [1] IAEA sees new activity at Iran's Pickaxe Mountain - Bloomberg Time: 2026-09-10T13:30:43.784Z
[2] UAE presidential adviser criticizes diplomacy driven by ambiguity, domestic pressure Time: 2026-09-10T12:12:48.910Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 194 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 9 of 60 normal daily β 13.3% of normal
- Throughput: 12.7% of normal (1.3M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 227
- Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 50.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS420 (+740% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost