Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-09 18:26:22 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.9% (3d) | Alignment: 40% (2 aligned, 3 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.479 above 0.45 but falling β institutional buying fading, 0DTE PCR 1.30 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +5.1B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 38% β narrow participation, rally is fragile |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +4.4% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.43% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.81 normal, SPY/DXY -0.30 normal, SPY/TNX -0.47 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.51 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.5 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 149 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.74 dealer stress |
| Inflation | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Stagflation score 26 β moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | USD/JPY 5d -3.5% yen strengthening, MOVE 77 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.67% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose |
Divergence read: Signals are mixed with no strong directional consensus against price.
Market Status
Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 64/100 (Mixed) |
Leading indicators show DIX falling to 0.479 (institutional buying fading); GEX positive at 5.1B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 38% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.5 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: DLR, ARWR, PFE
- Shorts: VTRS, RJF
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 13% (n=166) | 3d 38% (n=166) | 5d 32% (n=166)
- Screener Board Record: 361 closed (hit rate 46%) Β· 155 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $762.68 | 50 SMA $757.60 | 200 SMA $712.68 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $763.57
- QQQ: $715.60 | 50 SMA $711.32 | 200 SMA $658.32 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $595.0
- IWM: $290.61 | 50 SMA $296.91 | 200 SMA $272.99 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $240.0
- VIX: 16.46 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.837%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $762.68 | 48.48 | 15.7 | $763.57 | Bearish | 2.20 |
| QQQ | $715.60 | 50.74 | 18.0 | $595.00 | Neutral | 0.83 |
| IWM | $290.61 | 40.17 | 6.1 | $240.00 | Bearish | 4.97 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.46 | 54.38 | 21.5 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.89 |
| TNX | 48.37 | 60.59 | 21.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $403.70 | 50.67 | 37.1 | $402.17 | Neutral | 0.67 |
| DXY | 98.78 | 49.21 | 35.3 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $60.80 | 55.77 | 11.1 | $45.15 | Neutral | 0.58 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.479
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.12B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.67% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.40% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 37.9%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 59.3%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 496
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.4%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.9%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 94.7% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 59.3% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 55.4% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 52.6% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 42.6% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 33.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 27.1% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 26.5% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 16.4% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 15.4% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 13.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $97.16 (5d: +6.8%)
- Brent Crude: $102.14 | Spread: $4.98
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0600/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.8100/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $55.86/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $65.31
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.09
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.807 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.3 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.47 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.514 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.74
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 2,924,897.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,801,177.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.30 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $512.8B
- Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $762.68)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -75,941 contracts (Z +0.70, as of 2026-09-01)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.1% (as of 2026-09-02)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.84%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.03 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.78
- Growth vs Value: 0.94
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.41% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.37%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 26/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6737.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $967.9B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,769B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,882B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,200B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,851B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,848 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $97.16 β energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] USD/JPY 5d RoC at -3.5% β yen strengthening, carry unwind pressure building.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $149.97 (vs 20d avg 132.95, +2.7Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 149 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [INFO] Screener: SN β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 80/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=5916)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: NXST β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 68/100, regime structural_derate, calibrated positioning_extreme hit-rate 55% (n=185)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: PAYX β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 82/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated positioning_extreme hit-rate 55% (n=185)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: BX β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 74/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=5916)). Worth a look.
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.55%
- Median Return: +0.30%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-10-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β3.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β6.8% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
No new articles found since last report.
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 193 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 6 of 60 normal daily β 10.0% of normal
- Throughput: 10.0% of normal (1.0M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 285
- Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 58.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS350 (+600% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $8.5 billion/day economic cost