Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-09 11:15:20 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -1.1% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (1 aligned, 3 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.485 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.38 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +6.0B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 41% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +3.4% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.43% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.81 normal, SPY/DXY -0.30 normal, SPY/TNX -0.48 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.52 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.6 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 149 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.78 dealer stress |
| Inflation | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Stagflation score 26 β moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | USD/JPY 5d -3.5% yen strengthening, MOVE 76 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.68% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose |
Divergence read: Cautious regime but gamma, correlations, and credit are turning bullish β if dark pool confirm, this becomes a legitimate lean.
Market Status
Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 68/100 (Mixed) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.485; GEX positive at 6.0B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 41% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.6 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $761.71 | 50 SMA $757.60 | 200 SMA $712.68 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $767.07
- QQQ: $715.08 | 50 SMA $711.32 | 200 SMA $658.32 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $595.0
- IWM: $291.33 | 50 SMA $296.91 | 200 SMA $272.99 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $240.0
- VIX: 16.57 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.849%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $761.71 | 48.48 | 15.7 | $767.07 | Bearish | 2.79 |
| QQQ | $715.08 | 50.74 | 18.0 | $595.00 | Bearish | 1.59 |
| IWM | $291.33 | 40.17 | 6.1 | $240.00 | Bearish | 4.50 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.57 | 54.38 | 21.5 | $11.07 | Neutral | 1.03 |
| TNX | 48.49 | 60.59 | 21.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $402.51 | 50.67 | 37.1 | $401.99 | Neutral | 0.85 |
| DXY | 98.75 | 48.73 | 35.3 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $60.52 | 55.77 | 11.1 | $59.55 | Neutral | 0.61 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.485
- DIX Signal: Strong buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.96B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.68% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.41% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 40.9%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 60.5%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 494
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.3%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.7%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 100.0% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 63.2% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 58.5% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 56.6% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 46.3% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 45.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 30.5% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 23.5% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 19.2% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 17.9% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 13.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $96.36 (5d: +5.9%)
- Brent Crude: $101.17 | Spread: $4.81
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0500/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.7800/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $55.96/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $65.16
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.30
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.811 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.297 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.481 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.516 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.14
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 1,028,725.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 1,422,582.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.38 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $186.7B
- Gamma Call Wall: $770 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $761.71)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -75,941 contracts (Z +0.70, as of 2026-09-01)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.1% (as of 2026-09-02)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.85%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.05 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.75
- Growth vs Value: 0.94
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.40% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.37%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.34%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 26/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6737.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $967.9B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.6B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,769B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,878B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,197B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,844B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $79,601 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $96.36 β energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [INFO] DIX at 0.485 β strong dark pool buying activity.
- [WARNING] USD/JPY 5d RoC at -3.5% β yen strengthening, carry unwind pressure building.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $149.32 (vs 20d avg 132.95, +2.6Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 149 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [INFO] Screener: 7 fresh PRIMED high-conviction name(s) for 2026-09-09 β RVTY (conviction 77/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5812)); ASML (conviction 74/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 48% (n=10778)); IRT (conviction 69/100, range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5812)); OLN (conviction 68/100, structural_derate, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 48% (n=10778)); OMC (conviction 68/100, range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5812)); NDSN (conviction 61/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 48% (n=10778)); GAP (conviction 61/100, range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5812)). Calibrated setups only; decision-support, not advice.
- [INFO] Screener: MTDR β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 69/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated precatalyst_coiling hit-rate 53% (n=3078)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: ASML β promotion-ready (14d on list, HIGH conviction 74/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 48% (n=10778)).
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.54%
- Median Return: +0.30%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β3.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β6.8% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (4):
[1] Bitcoin's evolution into financial collateral URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoins-evolution-into-financial-collateral-202609091513 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 15:13:46 GMT
[2] Brazilian Real: Rate gap points to weakness against US Dollar - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazilian-real-rate-gap-points-to-weakness-against-us-dollar-rabobank-202609091512 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 15:12:34 GMT
[3] Inflation data prognosis URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/inflation-data-prognosis-202609091511 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 15:11:55 GMT
[4] WTI Oil rises as Middle East escalation threatens global supply URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-oil-rises-as-middle-east-escalation-threatens-global-supply-202609091501 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 15:01:07 GMT
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 193 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 1 of 60 normal daily β 3.5% of normal
- Throughput: 1.8% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 436
- Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 40.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS180 (+260% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost