Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-08 21:49:03 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.9% (3d) | Alignment: 0% (0 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | DIX 0.485 above 0.45 and rising β institutions accumulating, 0DTE PCR 1.20 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +6.0B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 43% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +2.7% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.43% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.80 normal, SPY/DXY -0.29 normal, SPY/TNX -0.46 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.51 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.7 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 149 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.64 dealer stress |
| Inflation | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Stagflation score 26 β moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | USD/JPY 5d -3.3% yen strengthening, MOVE 76 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.68% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose |
Divergence read: Cautious regime with SPY slipping, but dark pool, gamma, and correlations flash bullish β 4 of 4 signals refuse to confirm the decline. Watch for: breadth falling below 40% (bearish resolution).
Market Status
Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 72/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 72 (Favorable) but regime is CAUTIOUS β breadth at 43% keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX rising to 0.485 (institutional accumulation increasing); GEX positive at 6.0B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads widening (stress building). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.7 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: DLR, ARWR, PFE
- Shorts: VTRS, RJF
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 14% (n=172) | 3d 37% (n=172) | 5d 33% (n=172)
- Screener Board Record: 349 closed (hit rate 47%) Β· 157 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $765.41 | 50 SMA $756.86 | 200 SMA $712.15 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $770.59
- QQQ: $717.43 | 50 SMA $711.09 | 200 SMA $657.71 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $595.0
- IWM: $294.49 | 50 SMA $297.01 | 200 SMA $272.68 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $250.0
- VIX: 15.72 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.806%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $765.41 | 47.52 | 18.0 | $770.59 | Bearish | 2.25 |
| QQQ | $717.43 | 42.07 | 22.3 | $595.00 | Neutral | 1.17 |
| IWM | $294.49 | 36.92 | 10.4 | $250.00 | Bearish | 1.97 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.72 | 46.66 | 20.2 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.10 |
| TNX | 48.06 | 56.41 | 21.9 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $398.84 | 50.73 | 37.6 | $402.51 | Bearish | 2.19 |
| DXY | 98.81 | 38.84 | 37.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $59.31 | 50.68 | 12.8 | $46.00 | Neutral | 0.71 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.485
- DIX Signal: Strong buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.96B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.68% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.41% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 43.1%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 62.3%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 496
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.2%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.8%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 100.0% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 68.4% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 59.3% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 58.5% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 52.9% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 37.5% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 33.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 29.4% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 23.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 19.4% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 13.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $94.50 (5d: +4.7%)
- Brent Crude: $99.43 | Spread: $4.93
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0900/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.6400/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.98/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $64.77
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.46
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.8 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.292 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.463 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.506 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.14
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,267,688.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,931,653.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.20 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $551.4B
- Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $765.41)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -75,941 contracts (Z +0.70, as of 2026-09-01)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.1% (as of 2026-09-02)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.81%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.03 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.81
- Growth vs Value: 0.94
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.40% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.37%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.34%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 26/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6737.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $967.9B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.6B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,769B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,877B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,194B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,839B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $78,870 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [INFO] DIX at 0.485 β strong dark pool buying activity.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.506 with energy in ELEVATED β crude shock propagating into equities.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] USD/JPY 5d RoC at -3.3% β yen strengthening, carry unwind pressure building.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $146.03 (vs 20d avg 131.94, +2.5Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 149 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] Screener: HOG β promotion-ready (98d on list, HIGH conviction 67/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5812)).
- [INFO] Screener: HOG β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 67/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5812)). Worth a look.
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.50%
- Median Return: +0.50%
- Hit Rate: 60%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-10-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β7.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β7.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (10):
[1] 0.8%: China's CPI inflation rises in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/08-chinas-cpi-inflation-rises-in-august-202609090131 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 01:31:26 GMT
[2] China Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.4% above expectations (0.3%) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-consumer-price-index-mom-registered-at-04-above-expectations-03-in-august-202609090130 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 01:30:16 GMT
[3] China Producer Price Index (YoY) came in at 3.8%, above forecasts (3.7%) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-producer-price-index-yoy-came-in-at-38-above-forecasts-37-in-august-202609090130 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 01:30:14 GMT
[4] China Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets expectations (0.8%) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-consumer-price-index-yoy-meets-expectations-08-in-august-202609090130 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 01:30:13 GMT
[5] US President Donald Trump bans Canadian autos, dairy and alcohol URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-president-donald-trump-bans-canadian-autos-dairy-and-alcohol-202609090120 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 01:20:13 GMT
[6] WTI surges as US strikes Iranian tankers URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-surges-as-us-strikes-iranian-tankers-202609090117 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 01:17:33 GMT
[7] PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7769 vs. 6.7804 previous URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pboc-sets-usd-cny-reference-rate-at-67769-vs-67804-previous-202609090115 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 01:15:37 GMT
[8] British Pound holds steady near mid-1.3500s vs USD as traders eye UK GDP and US inflation URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-holds-steady-near-mid-13500s-vs-usd-as-traders-eye-uk-gdp-and-us-inflation-202609090110 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 01:10:42 GMT
[9] Euro grinds higher above 1.1600, traders await ECB rate decision, US inflation data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-grinds-higher-above-11600-traders-await-ecb-rate-decision-us-inflation-data-202609090058 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 00:58:02 GMT
[10] US targets Iranian oil tankers in response to attacks on US ships URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-targets-iranian-oil-tankers-in-response-to-attacks-on-us-ships-202609090001 Published: Wed, 09 Sep 2026 00:01:25 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Five tankers struck by US carried 45 million barrels of Iranian oil since 2019 Time: 2026-09-09T00:00:38.321Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 192 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 6 of 60 normal daily β 10.0% of normal
- Throughput: 7.0% of normal (0.7M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 250
- Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 53.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS280 (+460% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost