Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-08 12:45:16 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.7% (3d) | Alignment: 20% (1 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.476 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.17 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +8.4B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 44% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +3.0% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.42% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.80 normal, SPY/DXY -0.32 normal, SPY/TNX -0.45 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.48 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.3 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 152 high Β· VVIX/VIX 5.77 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 24 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | USD/JPY 5d -3.7% yen strengthening, MOVE 73 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.68% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose |
Divergence read: Cautious regime with SPY slipping, but gamma, correlations, and inflation flash bullish β 4 of 5 signals refuse to confirm the decline. Watch for: breadth falling below 40% (bearish resolution).
Market Status
Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 72/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 72 (Favorable) but regime is CAUTIOUS β breadth at 44% keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.476; GEX positive at 8.4B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads widening (stress building). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.3 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $767.02 | 50 SMA $756.86 | 200 SMA $712.15 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $770.23
- QQQ: $719.34 | 50 SMA $711.09 | 200 SMA $657.71 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $595.0
- IWM: $295.37 | 50 SMA $297.01 | 200 SMA $272.68 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $250.0
- VIX: 15.27 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.792%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $767.02 | 47.52 | 18.0 | $770.23 | Bearish | 1.65 |
| QQQ | $719.34 | 42.07 | 22.3 | $595.00 | Neutral | 0.90 |
| IWM | $295.37 | 36.92 | 10.4 | $250.00 | Neutral | 1.33 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.27 | 46.66 | 20.2 | $11.05 | Neutral | 1.40 |
| TNX | 47.92 | 56.41 | 21.9 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $402.98 | 50.73 | 37.6 | $406.00 | Bearish | 1.71 |
| DXY | 98.89 | 39.67 | 36.3 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $59.85 | 50.68 | 12.8 | $44.54 | Neutral | 0.67 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.476
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.4B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.68% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.41% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 44.0%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 63.9%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 496
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.2%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.7%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 100.0% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 68.4% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 59.3% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 58.5% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 55.9% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 41.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 33.9% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 26.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 26.5% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 19.4% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 13.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $92.20 (5d: +2.2%)
- Brent Crude: $97.30 | Spread: $5.10
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0600/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.5800/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $57.60/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $64.51
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.32
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.797 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.318 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.451 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.481 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.10
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 1,886,528.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 2,215,001.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.17 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $314.6B
- Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $767.02)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -75,941 contracts (Z +0.70, as of 2026-09-01)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.1% (as of 2026-09-02)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.79%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.01 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.89
- Growth vs Value: 0.94
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.37% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.35%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 24/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6737.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $967.9B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,769B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,879B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,182B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,829B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $78,781 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] USD/JPY 5d RoC at -3.7% β yen strengthening, carry unwind pressure building.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $143.5 (vs 20d avg 131.94, +2.0Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 152 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] SPY (767.06) dropped below ZGL (770.57) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [INFO] SPY (767.54) reclaimed ZGL (753.27) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [INFO] Screener: 12 fresh PRIMED high-conviction name(s) for 2026-09-08 β A (conviction 76/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5481)); BIIB (conviction 74/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5481)); AMGN (conviction 74/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5481)); ZBRA (conviction 73/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5481)); HWM (conviction 71/100, range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5481)); HPQ (conviction 70/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5481)); CNH (conviction 68/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5481)); GWW (conviction 68/100, range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5481)); AGCO (conviction 66/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5481)); ATI (conviction 66/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5481)); PCTY (conviction 63/100, range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5481)); OC (conviction 63/100, range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5481)). Calibrated setups only; decision-support, not advice.
- [INFO] Screener: 658 name(s) exited the program (983 exit event(s)) in the trailing 7d (2026-09-02 β 2026-09-08). Reasons: decayed 798, s2_evicted 147, tier_drop 35, horizon_elapsed 3. 604 never ripened, 0 unclassified.
- [INFO] Screener: A β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 76/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5481)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: ELV β promotion-ready (14d on list, HIGH conviction 64/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 48% (n=10182)).
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.52%
- Median Return: +0.32%
- Hit Rate: 60%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-10-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β7.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β7.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (2):
[1] The Japanese Yen spikes and unwinds on the best pay data in decades URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/the-japanese-yen-spikes-and-unwinds-on-the-best-pay-data-in-decades-202609081639 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 16:39:50 GMT
[2] Canadian Dollar trims gains as risk aversion supports US Dollar despite higher Oil prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-trims-gains-as-risk-aversion-supports-us-dollar-despite-higher-oil-prices-202609081632 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 16:32:51 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Bessent warns firms against business with Iranian airlines Time: 2026-09-08T16:31:21.036Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 192 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 12 of 60 normal daily β 20.0% of normal
- Throughput: 4.0% of normal (0.4M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 450
- Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 58.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS285 (+470% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost