Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-08 09:43:46 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.7% (3d) | Alignment: 20% (1 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.476 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.72 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +8.4B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 46% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +3.1% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.42% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.78 normal, SPY/DXY -0.33 normal, SPY/TNX -0.45 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.48 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.7 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 152 high Β· VVIX/VIX 5.51 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 24 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | USD/JPY 5d -4.0% yen strengthening, MOVE 73 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.65% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose |
Divergence read: Cautious regime with SPY slipping, but gamma, correlations, and inflation flash bullish β 4 of 5 signals refuse to confirm the decline. Watch for: breadth falling below 40% (bearish resolution).
Market Status
Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 67/100 (Mixed) | Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.476; GEX positive at 8.4B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 46% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.7 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $767.21 | 50 SMA $756.86 | 200 SMA $712.15 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $770.58
- QQQ: $717.30 | 50 SMA $711.09 | 200 SMA $657.71 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $595.0
- IWM: $294.44 | 50 SMA $297.01 | 200 SMA $272.68 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $250.0
- VIX: 15.71 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.784%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $767.21 | 47.52 | 18.0 | $770.58 | Bearish | 1.53 |
| QQQ | $717.30 | 42.07 | 22.3 | $595.00 | Neutral | 1.16 |
| IWM | $294.44 | 36.92 | 10.4 | $250.00 | Bearish | 1.87 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.71 | 46.66 | 20.2 | $11.05 | Neutral | 1.32 |
| TNX | 47.84 | 56.41 | 21.9 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $402.83 | 50.73 | 37.6 | $350.00 | Bearish | 1.51 |
| DXY | 98.82 | 38.95 | 37.4 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $59.59 | 50.68 | 12.8 | $43.00 | Neutral | 0.73 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.476
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.4B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.65% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.00%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.41% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 46.2%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 64.4%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 494
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.3%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.8%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 94.7% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 73.7% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 66.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 59.7% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 55.4% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 45.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 38.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 37.3% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 20.9% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 19.2% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 13.8% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $93.30 (5d: +3.4%)
- Brent Crude: $98.11 | Spread: $4.81
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0800/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.6000/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $57.34/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $64.89
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.53
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.777 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.326 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.45 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.485 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.10
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 166,428.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 285,448.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.72 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $34.7B
- Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $767.21)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -75,941 contracts (Z +0.70, as of 2026-09-01)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.1% (as of 2026-09-02)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.78%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.02 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.82
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.37% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.35%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 24/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6737.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $967.9B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,769B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,879B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,182B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,829B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $78,195 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] USD/JPY 5d RoC at -4.0% β yen strengthening, carry unwind pressure building.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $145.12 (vs 20d avg 131.94, +2.3Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 152 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~268h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~124h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 39 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: acm_term_premium_10y has printed the same value (0.88) for 5 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hormuz_insurance_multiplier has printed the same value (56.7) for 5 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: vix_backwardation_depth_pct has printed the same value (0.0) for 102 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.51%
- Median Return: +0.43%
- Hit Rate: 60%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-10-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β7.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β7.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (3):
[1] Euro holds steady as US Dollar struggles for traction URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-holds-steady-as-us-dollar-struggles-for-traction-202609081330 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 13:30:55 GMT
[2] Brent Oil outlook: Brent price nears $100 per barrel on fresh escalation in the Middle East URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/brent-oil-outlook-brent-price-nears-100-per-barrel-on-fresh-escalation-in-the-middle-east-202609081327 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 13:27:31 GMT
[3] European Central Bank: Clients see higher peak and later cuts - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/european-central-bank-clients-see-higher-peak-and-later-cuts-deutsche-bank-202609081320 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 13:20:27 GMT
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 192 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 12 of 60 normal daily β 20.0% of normal
- Throughput: 17.5% of normal (1.8M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 120
- Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 50.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS475 (+850% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost