Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-08 04:01:56 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.4% (3d) | Alignment: 20% (1 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.476 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.11 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +8.4B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 48% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +0.6% stable Β· real yield 2.42% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.77 normal, SPY/DXY -0.35 normal, SPY/TNX -0.45 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.48 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.3 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 152 high Β· VVIX/VIX 5.52 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 24 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | USD/JPY 5d -3.8% yen strengthening, MOVE 73 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.65% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose |
Divergence read: Cautious regime with SPY slipping, but gamma, correlations, and inflation flash bullish β 4 of 5 signals refuse to confirm the decline. Watch for: breadth falling below 40% (bearish resolution).
Market Status
Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 71/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 71 (Favorable) but regime is CAUTIOUS β breadth at 48% keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.476; GEX positive at 8.4B (vol-suppressing); breadth rising to 48% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.3 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $769.55 | 50 SMA $756.86 | 200 SMA $712.15 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $772.57
- QQQ: $717.54 | 50 SMA $711.09 | 200 SMA $657.71 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $595.0
- IWM: $295.01 | 50 SMA $297.01 | 200 SMA $272.68 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $250.0
- VIX: 15.30 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.784%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $769.55 | 47.52 | 18.0 | $772.57 | None | None |
| QQQ | $717.54 | 42.07 | 22.3 | $595.00 | None | None |
| IWM | $295.01 | 36.92 | 10.4 | $250.00 | None | None |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.30 | 46.66 | 20.2 | $10.50 | None | None |
| TNX | 47.84 | 56.41 | 21.9 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $406.53 | 50.73 | 37.6 | $350.00 | None | None |
| DXY | 99.18 | 43.08 | 34.7 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $59.87 | 50.68 | 12.8 | $44.76 | None | None |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.476
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.4B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.65% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.00%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.41% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 48.2%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 66.7%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 496
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.3%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.8%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 94.7% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 75.9% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 73.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 66.2% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 56.9% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 39.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 32.4% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 19.4% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 15.4% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $92.61 (5d: +2.6%)
- Brent Crude: $97.24 | Spread: $4.63
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0300/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.6700/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $57.61/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $64.06
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.56
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.771 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.354 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.454 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.477 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.10
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.11 (No 0DTE Expiry Today)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $553.3B
- Gamma Call Wall: $780 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $769.55)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -75,941 contracts (Z +0.70, as of 2026-09-01)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.1% (as of 2026-09-02)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.78%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.03 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.18
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.37% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.35%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 24/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6737.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $967.9B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,769B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,879B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,182B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,829B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $78,367 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] USD/JPY 5d RoC at -3.8% β yen strengthening, carry unwind pressure building.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $141.96 (vs 20d avg 131.94, +1.8Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 152 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~268h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~124h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 39 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: acm_term_premium_10y has printed the same value (0.88) for 5 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hormuz_insurance_multiplier has printed the same value (56.7) for 5 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.50%
- Median Return: +0.50%
- Hit Rate: 60%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-10-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β7.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β7.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (29):
[1] WTI advances above $92.00, highest since July as Hormuz tensions stoke supply concerns URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-advances-above-9200-highest-since-july-as-hormuz-tensions-stoke-supply-concerns-202609080757 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 07:57:32 GMT
[2] Today's forex trade ideas (With stop loss and targets) [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/todays-forex-trade-ideas-with-stop-loss-and-targets-video-202609080743 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 07:43:22 GMT
[3] Forex Today: Japanese Yen extends rally, Oil prices climb higher URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-japanese-yen-extends-rally-oil-prices-climb-higher-202609080738 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 07:38:06 GMT
[4] Hungarian Forint: Inflation surprise and HUF dynamics - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/hungarian-forint-inflation-surprise-and-huf-dynamics-ing-202609080735 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 07:35:14 GMT
[5] Euro recovers some early losses against Japanese Yen, ECB policy in focus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-recovers-some-early-losses-against-japanese-yen-ecb-policy-in-focus-202609080728 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 07:28:04 GMT
[6] Equities: Tech leadership with Astra boost - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-tech-leadership-with-astra-boost-danske-bank-202609080722 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 07:22:13 GMT
[7] Euro dips to session lows near 0.8580 following German Trade Balance data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-wavers-below-08590-against-the-british-pound-lacking-clear-bias-202609080720 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 07:20:45 GMT
[8] Elliott Wave: Strong US jobs, Middle East tensions and key inflation data ahead [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/elliott-wave-live-strong-us-jobs-middle-east-tensions-and-key-inflation-data-ahead-video-202609080707 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 07:07:35 GMT
[9] Austria Trade Balance rose from previous β¬-635.5M to β¬-29.2M in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/austria-trade-balance-rose-from-previous-eur-6355m-to-eur-292m-in-june-202609080702 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 07:02:13 GMT
[10] Swiss Franc steadies as Fed hike expectations offset safe-haven flows URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-steadies-as-fed-hike-expectations-offset-safe-haven-flows-202609080658 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 06:58:34 GMT
[11] USD/CAD Price Forecast: Surging oil prices lift Canadian Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-price-forecast-surging-oil-prices-lift-canadian-dollar-202609080655 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 06:55:18 GMT
[12] France Exports, EUR: β¬54.677B (July) vs β¬54.537B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-exports-eur-eur54677b-july-vs-eur54537b-202609080647 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 06:47:18 GMT
[13] France Trade Balance EUR came in at β¬-6.669B, below expectations (β¬-6B) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-trade-balance-eur-came-in-at-eur-6669b-below-expectations-eur-6b-in-july-202609080647 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 06:47:14 GMT
[14] France Current Account dipped from previous β¬-1.4B to β¬-4.7B in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-current-account-dipped-from-previous-eur-14b-to-eur-47b-in-july-202609080647 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 06:47:07 GMT
[15] France Imports, EUR dipped from previous β¬60.384B to β¬31.346B in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-imports-eur-dipped-from-previous-eur60384b-to-eur31346b-in-july-202609080647 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 06:47:05 GMT
[16] A key week for EUR/USD: ECB decision and us inflation in focus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/a-key-week-for-eur-usd-ecb-decision-and-us-inflation-in-focus-202609080646 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 06:46:13 GMT
[17] Euro: Range-bound risks against US Dollar with ECB focus - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-range-bound-risks-against-us-dollar-with-ecb-focus-ocbc-202609080644 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 06:44:18 GMT
[18] Carry unwind risks are back URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/carry-unwind-risks-are-back-202609080639 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 06:39:32 GMT
[19] Muted reaction to a very strong NFP URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/muted-reaction-to-a-very-strong-nfp-202609080637 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 06:37:57 GMT
[20] Euro retreats below 1.1630 following the release of German Trade Balance data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-retreats-below-11630-following-the-release-of-german-trade-balance-data-202609080635 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 06:35:58 GMT
[21] Oil and Gold: Price review for the week ahead URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/oil-and-gold-price-review-for-the-week-ahead-202609080633 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 06:33:21 GMT
[22] EUR/USD forecast: The ECB meeting becomes the main driver for the Euro this week URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eur-usd-forecast-the-ecb-meeting-becomes-the-main-driver-for-the-euro-this-week-202609080628 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 06:28:35 GMT
[23] Japanese Yen: Strengthens against US Dollar on BoJ outlook - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-strengthens-against-us-dollar-on-boj-outlook-mufg-202609080623 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 06:23:05 GMT
[24] AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Weakens below 111.00, remains capped below 100-day SMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-jpy-price-forecast-weakens-below-11100-remains-capped-below-100-day-sma-202609080617 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 06:17:52 GMT
[25] Cryptocurrencies Price Prediction: SHIB, Ripple & Bitcoin - Asian Wrap 08 September URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-shib-ripple-bitcoin-asian-wrap-08-september-202609080608 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 06:08:21 GMT
[26] Indian Rupee retreats as oil prices rally further URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-corrects-from-two-month-high-as-oil-prices-extend-rally-202609080608 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 06:08:08 GMT
[27] Yen bid as BoJ hike bets increase URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/yen-bid-as-boj-hike-bets-increase-202609080608 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 06:08:02 GMT
[28] Yen gains may facilitate the BoJ's work URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/yen-gains-may-facilitate-the-bojs-work-202609080605 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 06:05:03 GMT
[29] Shiba Inu Price Forecast: SHIB stalls as rising supply on exchanges warns of profit-taking URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/shiba-inu-price-forecast-shib-stalls-as-rising-supply-on-exchanges-warns-of-profit-taking-202609080601 Published: Tue, 08 Sep 2026 06:01:36 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (5):
[1] Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and GCC condemn Iran-backed Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia Time: 2026-09-08T07:34:31.784Z
[2] Tehran preparing metro stations for use as shelters, council chief says Time: 2026-09-08T06:45:19.962Z
[3] Egypt, Jordan condemn Iran-backed Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia Time: 2026-09-08T06:30:13.060Z
[BREAKING] [4] Iran-backed Houthis to announce major operation deep inside Saudi Arabia Time: 2026-09-08T06:08:53.844Z
[5] Iran-backed Houthis' attacks disrupt some energy operations in Saudi Arabia Time: 2026-09-08T05:56:35.917Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 192 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 9 of 60 normal daily β 15.0% of normal
- Throughput: 15.0% of normal (1.5M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 250
- Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 56.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS460 (+820% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost