Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-04 15:52:19 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.7% (3d) | Alignment: 100% (4 aligned, 0 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.454 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.10 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +8.6B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 48% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold -0.1% neutral Β· real yield 2.45% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.77 normal, SPY/DXY -0.35 normal, SPY/TNX -0.43 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.48 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 14.4 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 151 high Β· VVIX/VIX 5.89 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 24 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | USD/JPY 5d -2.4% yen strengthening, MOVE 75 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.65% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose |
Divergence read: Cautious regime but gamma, correlations, and inflation are turning bullish β if structural signals confirm, this becomes a legitimate lean.
Market Status
Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 71/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 71 (Favorable) but regime is CAUTIOUS β breadth at 48% keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.454; GEX positive at 8.6B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 48% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.4 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $770.36 | 50 SMA $756.14 | 200 SMA $711.63 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $770.96
- QQQ: $719.09 | 50 SMA $711.03 | 200 SMA $657.13 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $706.74
- IWM: $296.14 | 50 SMA $297.07 | 200 SMA $272.36 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $296.54
- VIX: 14.40 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.784%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $770.36 | 46.87 | 17.4 | $770.96 | Bearish | 1.57 |
| QQQ | $719.09 | 40.25 | 22.7 | $706.74 | Neutral | 0.78 |
| IWM | $296.14 | 34.02 | 10.7 | $296.54 | Bearish | 1.59 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 14.40 | 50.33 | 21.1 | $11.06 | Neutral | 1.41 |
| TNX | 47.84 | 56.96 | 26.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $406.78 | 54.98 | 37.1 | $402.77 | Neutral | 1.00 |
| DXY | 99.14 | 42.68 | 37.7 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $59.84 | 55.52 | 12.6 | $43.00 | Neutral | 0.74 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.454
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.62B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.65% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.00%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.43% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 48.2%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 66.8%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 494
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.4%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.8%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 94.7% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 75.9% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 73.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 64.7% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 53.1% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 45.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 39.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 38.2% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 19.7% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 19.2% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $91.35 (5d: +6.5%)
- Brent Crude: $96.12 | Spread: $4.77
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.2100/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.5400/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $62.09/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $64.03
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.58
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.772 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.354 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.429 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.485 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 74.68
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.19 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,349,424.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,700,876.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.10 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $543.1B
- Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $770 (Spot: $770.36)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -75,941 contracts (Z +0.70, as of 2026-09-01)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.1% (as of 2026-09-02)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.78%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.03 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.14
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.37% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.35%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 24/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6737.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $967.9B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,769B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,871B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,129B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,769B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $79,700 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $141.94 (vs 20d avg 130.74, +1.9Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 151 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] SPY (769.78) dropped below ZGL (771.00) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [INFO] SPY (769.65) reclaimed ZGL (756.30) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [INFO] Screener: 3 fresh PRIMED high-conviction name(s) for 2026-09-04 β ROP (conviction 67/100, range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5373)); DASH (conviction 66/100, range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5373)); APH (conviction 62/100, capitulation, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5373)). Calibrated setups only; decision-support, not advice.
- [INFO] Screener: RRC β promotion-ready (93d on list, HIGH conviction 68/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated precatalyst_coiling hit-rate 51% (n=2634)).
- [INFO] Screener: DASH β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 66/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5373)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: ROP β promotion-ready (43d on list, HIGH conviction 67/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5373)).
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.50%
- Median Return: +0.49%
- Hit Rate: 60%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 4.1 | Prev: 4.1
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-10-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β7.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β7.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (9):
[1] Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions down to Β₯-92.2K from previous Β₯-63.3K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-cftc-jpy-nc-net-positions-down-to-y-922k-from-previous-y-633k-202609041935 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 19:35:43 GMT
[2] Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions increased to β¬-24.9K from previous β¬-36.4K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-cftc-eur-nc-net-positions-increased-to-eur-249k-from-previous-eur-364k-202609041935 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 19:35:38 GMT
[3] United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions: $-75.9K vs previous $-68K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-cftc-sp-500-nc-net-positions-759k-vs-previous-68k-202609041935 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 19:35:33 GMT
[4] United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions dipped from previous Β£-44.5K to Β£-49.6K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-cftc-gbp-nc-net-positions-dipped-from-previous-ps-445k-to-ps-496k-202609041935 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 19:35:28 GMT
[5] United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions down to $228.1K from previous $243.3K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-cftc-gold-nc-net-positions-down-to-2281k-from-previous-2433k-202609041935 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 19:35:19 GMT
[6] Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions: $-39.4K vs $-44.5K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-cftc-aud-nc-net-positions-394k-vs-445k-202609041935 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 19:35:15 GMT
[7] United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions climbed from previous 123.4K to 129.9K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-cftc-oil-nc-net-positions-climbed-from-previous-1234k-to-1299k-202609041935 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 19:35:10 GMT
[8] Malaysia: Hawkish pause keeps options open - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/malaysia-hawkish-pause-keeps-options-open-dbs-202609041934 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 19:34:53 GMT
[9] Indian Rupee: Dollar inflows support INR but impulse may fade - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-dollar-inflows-support-inr-but-impulse-may-fade-ocbc-202609041932 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 19:32:00 GMT
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 188 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 8 of 60 normal daily β 13.3% of normal
- Throughput: 7.3% of normal (0.8M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 408
- Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 53.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS280 (+460% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.5 billion/day economic cost