Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-04 14:00:43 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.6% (3d) | Alignment: 80% (4 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | DIX 0.454 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.17 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +8.6B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 50% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +0.2% stable Β· real yield 2.45% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.76 normal, SPY/DXY -0.36 normal, SPY/TNX -0.43 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.47 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 14.2 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 151 high Β· VVIX/VIX 5.80 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 24 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | USD/JPY 5d -2.5% yen strengthening, MOVE 75 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.65% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose |
Divergence read: Cautious regime but gamma, correlations, and inflation are turning bullish β if dark pool confirm, this becomes a legitimate lean.
Market Status
Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 71/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 71 (Favorable) but regime is CAUTIOUS β breadth at 50% keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.454; GEX positive at 8.6B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 50% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $769.46 | 50 SMA $756.14 | 200 SMA $711.63 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $770.98
- QQQ: $717.19 | 50 SMA $711.03 | 200 SMA $657.13 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $714.29
- IWM: $295.24 | 50 SMA $297.07 | 200 SMA $272.36 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $296.41
- VIX: 14.20 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.778%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $769.46 | 46.87 | 17.4 | $770.98 | Bearish | 1.58 |
| QQQ | $717.19 | 40.25 | 22.7 | $714.29 | Neutral | 1.05 |
| IWM | $295.24 | 34.02 | 10.7 | $296.41 | Bearish | 3.03 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 14.20 | 50.33 | 21.1 | $11.05 | Neutral | 1.45 |
| TNX | 47.78 | 56.96 | 26.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $405.05 | 54.98 | 37.1 | $402.71 | Neutral | 1.06 |
| DXY | 99.16 | 42.97 | 37.9 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $59.55 | 55.52 | 12.6 | $43.00 | Neutral | 0.79 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.454
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.62B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.65% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.00%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.43% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 49.5%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 67.5%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.3%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.7%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 94.7% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 78.9% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 75.9% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 66.2% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 54.7% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 42.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 38.2% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 23.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 19.4% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $91.04 (5d: +6.2%)
- Brent Crude: $95.82 | Spread: $4.78
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.2000/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.5300/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $61.98/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $64.07
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.67
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.76 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.357 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.426 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.47 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 74.68
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.19 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 2,555,027.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 2,996,301.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.17 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $427.1B
- Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $770 (Spot: $769.46)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.1% (as of 2026-09-02)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.78%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.02 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.16
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.37% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.35%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 24/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6737.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $967.9B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,769B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,877B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,131B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,776B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $79,783 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $141.31 (vs 20d avg 130.74, +1.8Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 151 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] SPY (770.77) dropped below ZGL (770.94) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [INFO] SPY (771.14) reclaimed ZGL (770.94) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [INFO] Screener: 3 fresh PRIMED high-conviction name(s) for 2026-09-04 β ROP (conviction 67/100, range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5373)); DASH (conviction 66/100, range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5373)); APH (conviction 62/100, capitulation, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5373)). Calibrated setups only; decision-support, not advice.
- [INFO] Screener: RRC β promotion-ready (93d on list, HIGH conviction 68/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated precatalyst_coiling hit-rate 51% (n=2634)).
- [INFO] Screener: DASH β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 66/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5373)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: ROP β promotion-ready (43d on list, HIGH conviction 67/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5373)).
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.49%
- Median Return: +0.56%
- Hit Rate: 60%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 4.1 | Prev: 4.1
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-10-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β2.3% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β7.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β7.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (1):
[1] US Dollar Weekly Forecast: The Dollar had every reason to rally. Why didn't it? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/us-dollar-weekly-forecast-the-dollar-had-every-reason-to-rally-why-didnt-it-202609041749 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 17:49:02 GMT
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 188 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 8 of 60 normal daily β 7.0% of normal
- Throughput: 7.0% of normal (0.7M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 408
- Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 50.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS476 (+851% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $8.5 billion/day economic cost