Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-04 11:05:54 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.6% (3d) | Alignment: 80% (4 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | DIX 0.454 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.49 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +8.6B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 48% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +0.2% stable Β· real yield 2.45% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.77 normal, SPY/DXY -0.35 normal, SPY/TNX -0.42 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.47 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 14.3 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 151 high Β· VVIX/VIX 5.84 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 24 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | USD/JPY 5d -2.5% yen strengthening, MOVE 75 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.65% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose |
Divergence read: Cautious regime but gamma, correlations, and inflation are turning bullish β if dark pool confirm, this becomes a legitimate lean.
Market Status
Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 69/100 (Mixed) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.454; GEX positive at 8.6B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 48% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.3 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: DLR, ARWR, PFE
- Shorts: VTRS, RJF
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 13% (n=186) | 3d 37% (n=186) | 5d 35% (n=186)
- Screener Board Record: 328 closed (hit rate 48%) Β· 163 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $769.55 | 50 SMA $756.14 | 200 SMA $711.63 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $770.97
- QQQ: $717.83 | 50 SMA $711.03 | 200 SMA $657.13 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $714.16
- IWM: $295.15 | 50 SMA $297.07 | 200 SMA $272.36 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $296.37
- VIX: 14.29 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.778%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $769.55 | 46.87 | 17.4 | $770.97 | Neutral | 1.42 |
| QQQ | $717.83 | 40.25 | 22.7 | $714.16 | Neutral | 0.84 |
| IWM | $295.15 | 34.02 | 10.7 | $296.37 | Bearish | 2.51 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 14.29 | 50.33 | 21.1 | $11.05 | Neutral | 1.44 |
| TNX | 47.78 | 56.96 | 26.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $406.17 | 54.98 | 37.1 | $402.75 | Neutral | 1.11 |
| DXY | 99.11 | 42.05 | 37.3 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $59.52 | 55.52 | 12.6 | $43.00 | Neutral | 0.71 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.454
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.62B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.65% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.00%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.43% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 47.5%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 66.3%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.3%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.7%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 94.7% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 73.7% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 70.4% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 66.2% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 53.1% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 41.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 40.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 38.2% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 23.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 17.9% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $90.82 (5d: +5.9%)
- Brent Crude: $95.43 | Spread: $4.61
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9800/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.5200/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $55.90/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $64.14
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.70
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.766 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.352 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.425 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.473 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 74.68
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.19 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 947,879.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 1,410,910.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.49 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $181.5B
- Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $770 (Spot: $769.55)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.1% (as of 2026-09-02)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.78%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.02 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.11
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.37% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.35%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 24/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6737.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $967.9B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,769B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,873B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,129B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,770B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $78,930 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 151 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] SPY (770.45) dropped below ZGL (770.96) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [INFO] Screener: 3 fresh PRIMED high-conviction name(s) for 2026-09-04 β ROP (conviction 67/100, range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5373)); DASH (conviction 66/100, range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5373)); APH (conviction 62/100, capitulation, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5373)). Calibrated setups only; decision-support, not advice.
- [INFO] Screener: RRC β promotion-ready (93d on list, HIGH conviction 68/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated precatalyst_coiling hit-rate 51% (n=2634)).
- [INFO] Screener: DASH β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 66/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5373)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: ROP β promotion-ready (43d on list, HIGH conviction 67/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5373)).
- [INFO] Screener: ROP β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 67/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5373)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: SJM β promotion-ready (9d on list, HIGH conviction 63/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 56% @10d (n=218)).
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.50%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 60%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 4.1 | Prev: 4.1
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-10-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β2.3% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β7.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β7.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (3):
[1] EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: ECB to hike as Trump pushes for lower US rates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eur-usd-weekly-forecast-ecb-to-hike-as-trump-pushes-for-lower-us-rates-202609041457 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 14:57:11 GMT
[2] Swiss Franc loses ground upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-loses-ground-upbeat-us-nonfarm-payrolls-202609041453 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 14:53:06 GMT
[3] Canada: Gradual improvement outlook on labour market - RBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-gradual-improvement-outlook-on-labour-market-rbc-202609041452 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 14:52:00 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[BREAKING] [1] US targets Turkey-based entities in new Iran sanctions Time: 2026-09-04T14:12:00.000Z
[2] Iran army says recent operation marked shift to preemptive doctrine Time: 2026-09-04T13:19:31.465Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 188 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 8 of 60 normal daily β 13.3% of normal
- Throughput: 10.2% of normal (1.1M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 408
- Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 50.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS520 (+940% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $12.5 billion/day economic cost