Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-04 10:34:13 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.9% (3d) | Alignment: 80% (4 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | DIX 0.454 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.35 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +8.6B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 48% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +0.3% stable Β· real yield 2.45% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.77 normal, SPY/DXY -0.35 normal, SPY/TNX -0.42 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.47 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 14.1 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 151 high Β· VVIX/VIX 5.90 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 24 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | USD/JPY 5d -2.5% yen strengthening, MOVE 75 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.66% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose |
Divergence read: Cautious regime but gamma, correlations, and inflation are turning bullish β if dark pool confirm, this becomes a legitimate lean.
Market Status
Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 74/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 74 (Favorable) but regime is CAUTIOUS β breadth at 48% keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.454; GEX positive at 8.6B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 48% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.1 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $771.19 | 50 SMA $756.14 | 200 SMA $711.63 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $770.96
- QQQ: $719.56 | 50 SMA $711.03 | 200 SMA $657.13 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $714.21
- IWM: $295.79 | 50 SMA $297.07 | 200 SMA $272.36 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $296.35
- VIX: 14.07 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.762%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $771.19 | 46.87 | 17.4 | $770.96 | Neutral | 1.16 |
| QQQ | $719.56 | 40.25 | 22.7 | $714.21 | Neutral | 0.64 |
| IWM | $295.79 | 34.02 | 10.7 | $296.35 | Bearish | 1.81 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 14.07 | 50.33 | 21.1 | $11.05 | Neutral | 1.46 |
| TNX | 47.62 | 56.96 | 26.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $406.35 | 54.98 | 37.1 | $402.76 | Neutral | 1.05 |
| DXY | 99.14 | 42.61 | 37.6 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $59.72 | 55.52 | 12.6 | $43.00 | Neutral | 0.66 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.454
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.62B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.66% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.43% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 47.9%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 66.3%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.9%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 94.7% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 78.9% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 72.2% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 66.2% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 54.7% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 45.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 40.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 35.3% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 19.2% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 17.9% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $89.62 (5d: +4.5%)
- Brent Crude: $94.18 | Spread: $4.56
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9500/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.4700/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $55.56/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $64.03
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.71
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.767 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.348 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.42 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.465 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 74.68
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.19 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 663,356.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 893,539.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.35 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $120.1B
- Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $770 (Spot: $771.19)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.1% (as of 2026-09-02)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.76%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.00 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.14
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.37% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.35%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 24/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6737.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $967.9B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,769B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,870B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,132B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,771B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $79,470 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 151 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-ON to CAUTIOUS.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 38 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: vix_backwardation_depth_pct has printed the same value (0.0) for 101 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_max_pain has printed the same value (735.0) for 47 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_put_wall has printed the same value (740.0) for 45 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_call_wall has printed the same value (750.0) for 46 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_gamma_flip has printed the same value (746.563209577586) for 45 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.49%
- Median Return: +0.62%
- Hit Rate: 60%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 4.1 | Prev: 4.1
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-10-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β2.3% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β7.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β7.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (3):
[1] "Lower the rate or I'll stop trading": Trump pressures Fed after strong US jobs report URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/lower-the-rate-or-ill-stop-trading-trump-pressures-fed-after-strong-us-jobs-report-202609041410 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 14:10:55 GMT
[2] Blowout US jobs report hands Fed hawks something to chew on URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/blowout-us-jobs-report-hands-fed-hawks-something-to-chew-on-202609041406 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 14:06:57 GMT
[3] Canadian Dollar: Jobs weakness caps gains against US Dollar - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-jobs-weakness-caps-gains-against-us-dollar-td-securities-202609041406 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 14:06:57 GMT
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 188 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 8 of 60 normal daily β 13.3% of normal
- Throughput: 7.8% of normal (0.8M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 408
- Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 56.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS372 (+644% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost