Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-04 09:30:53 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +1.0% (3d) | Alignment: 80% (4 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.454 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.95 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +8.6B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 52% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | Copper/Gold -2.2% slowing Β· real yield 2.45% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.77 normal, SPY/DXY -0.34 normal, SPY/TNX -0.42 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.50 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 14.0 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 151 high Β· VVIX/VIX 5.93 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 24 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | USD/JPY 5d -2.6% yen strengthening, MOVE 75 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.66% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose |
Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, correlations, and inflation leaning bullish, but growth expectations haven't signed on yet β rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 77/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.454; GEX positive at 8.6B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.0 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $772.13 | 50 SMA $756.14 | 200 SMA $711.63 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $770.97
- QQQ: $719.17 | 50 SMA $711.03 | 200 SMA $657.13 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $714.2
- IWM: $294.01 | 50 SMA $297.07 | 200 SMA $272.36 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $296.21
- VIX: 14.03 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.776%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $772.13 | 46.87 | 17.4 | $770.97 | Neutral | 0.87 |
| QQQ | $719.17 | 40.25 | 22.7 | $714.20 | Neutral | 0.77 |
| IWM | $294.01 | 34.02 | 10.7 | $296.21 | Bearish | 1.82 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 14.03 | 50.33 | 21.1 | $11.05 | Neutral | 1.37 |
| TNX | 47.76 | 56.96 | 26.0 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $404.75 | 54.98 | 37.1 | $402.77 | Neutral | 1.30 |
| DXY | 99.18 | 43.25 | 38.0 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $59.17 | 55.52 | 12.6 | $42.00 | Bearish | 0.45 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.454
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.62B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.66% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.43% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.5%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 68.3%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.9%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 94.7% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 79.6% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 78.9% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 69.1% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 62.5% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 56.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 45.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 41.2% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 23.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 19.4% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $90.23 (5d: +5.2%)
- Brent Crude: $94.47 | Spread: $4.24
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9400/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.4800/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $54.81/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $64.21
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.65
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.773 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.342 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.422 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.499 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 74.68
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.19 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 1,060.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 1,004.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.95 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $0.2B
- Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $772.13)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.1% (as of 2026-09-02)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.78%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.01 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.18
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.37% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.35%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 24/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6737.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $967.9B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,769B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,863B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,132B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,764B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $79,282 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.454, GEX +8.6B, HY OAS 2.66%, breadth 52%.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 151 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 38 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: vix_backwardation_depth_pct has printed the same value (0.0) for 101 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_max_pain has printed the same value (735.0) for 47 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_put_wall has printed the same value (740.0) for 45 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_call_wall has printed the same value (750.0) for 46 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_gamma_flip has printed the same value (746.563209577586) for 45 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.48%
- Median Return: +0.70%
- Hit Rate: 60%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 4.1 | Prev: 4.2
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-10-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β2.3% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β7.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β7.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (1):
[1] Japanese Yen steadies against US Dollar after strong NFP report URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-steadies-against-us-dollar-after-strong-nfp-report-202609041309 Published: Fri, 04 Sep 2026 13:09:07 GMT
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 188 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 3 of 60 normal daily β 3.3% of normal
- Throughput: 3.4% of normal (0.3M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 320
- Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 50.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS372 (+644% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $1.8 billion/day economic cost