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2026-W36

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-03 18:03:21 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +1.4% (3d) | Alignment: 80% (4 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED β€” Mixed β€” no clear signal consensus

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” DIX 0.465 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.96 balanced
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED GEX +6.1B strong suppression
Breadth βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Breadth 52% β€” mixed participation
Energy πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ— DIVERGENT Energy RISING β€” oil climbing, margin pressure building
growth_expectations βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Copper/Gold -1.4% neutral Β· real yield 2.44% restrictive
Correlations 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED SPY/VIX -0.76 normal, SPY/DXY -0.34 normal, SPY/TNX -0.41 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.42 elevated
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 14.3 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 151 high Β· VVIX/VIX 5.85 dealer stress
Inflation 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED Stagflation score 23 β€” low inflation risk
carry_risk βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” USD/JPY 5d -2.2% yen strengthening, MOVE 75 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED HY OAS 2.66% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose

Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, correlations, and inflation leaning bullish, but energy haven't signed on yet β€” rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 76/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $92, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.465; GEX positive at 6.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.3 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

  • Regime: low β€” Calm regime β€” balanced board
  • Longs: DLR, ARWR, PFE
  • Shorts: VTRS, RJF

Track Record

  • AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 13% (n=186) | 3d 37% (n=186) | 5d 35% (n=186)
  • Screener Board Record: 328 closed (hit rate 48%) Β· 158 open

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $772.47 | 50 SMA $755.34 | 200 SMA $711.13 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $762.8
  • QQQ: $716.67 | 50 SMA $710.89 | 200 SMA $656.59 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $709.78
  • IWM: $294.89 | 50 SMA $297.10 | 200 SMA $272.08 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $296.34
  • VIX: 14.32 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.762%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $772.47 35.61 11.3 $762.80 Neutral 0.63
QQQ $716.67 31.38 21.4 $709.78 Neutral 0.53
IWM $294.89 34.88 10.9 $296.34 Bearish 2.04

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 14.32 52.82 20.0 $11.05 Neutral 1.35
TNX 47.62 65.66 23.2 - - -
GLD $410.31 52.30 42.3 $399.34 Bearish 0.49
DXY 99.00 39.87 39.4 - - -
SLV $60.57 52.59 14.0 $57.29 Bearish 0.38

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.465
  • DIX Signal: Moderate buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.06B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.66% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.99%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.43% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.7%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 68.3%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 32.5%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 41.9%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Energy 94.7% 0/0
Health Care 79.6% 0/0
Communication Services 78.9% 0/0
Financials 69.1% 0/0
Materials 62.5% 0/0
Technology 56.9% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 45.8% 0/0
Consumer Staples 42.4% 0/0
Real Estate 23.1% 0/0
Industrials 19.4% 0/0
Utilities 10.0% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: RISING
  • WTI Crude: $91.67 (5d: +9.9%)
  • Brent Crude: $95.82 | Spread: $4.15
  • RBOB Gasoline: $3.1600/gal
  • Heating Oil: $4.6000/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $61.21/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $64.62
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $10.49

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.76 normal
SPY / DXY -0.337 normal
SPY / TNX -0.407 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.416 elevated

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 74.68
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.19 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 4,226,930.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 4,048,764.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.96 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $639.9B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $772.47)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
  • Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.1% (as of 2026-09-02)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
  • Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.76%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.02 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.00
  • Growth vs Value: 0.93
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.35% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.34%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 23/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6737.2B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $967.9B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.7B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,779B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,885B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,150B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,814B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $81,441 (Risk-on)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $142.09 (vs 20d avg 129.58, +2.1Οƒ), floor $75.00 β€” potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
  • [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.465, GEX +6.1B, HY OAS 2.66%, breadth 52%.
  • [WARNING] SKEW at 151 β€” elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
  • [INFO] Screener: 2 fresh PRIMED high-conviction name(s) for 2026-09-03 β€” PK (conviction 73/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5373)); ODFL (conviction 62/100, range_noise, calibrated pair_divergence hit-rate 48% (n=816)). Calibrated setups only; decision-support, not advice.
  • [INFO] Screener: NTNX β€” promotion-ready (93d on list, HIGH conviction 66/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated positioning_extreme hit-rate 38% (n=47)).
  • [INFO] Screener: GAP β€” promotion-ready (42d on list, HIGH conviction 66/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated positioning_extreme hit-rate 38% (n=47)).
  • [INFO] Screener: DOCU β€” promotion-ready (42d on list, HIGH conviction 63/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated positioning_extreme hit-rate 38% (n=47)).
  • [INFO] Screener: ODFL β€” new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 62/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5373)). Worth a look.
  • [INFO] Screener: ELV β€” promotion-ready (10d on list, HIGH conviction 66/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated precatalyst_coiling hit-rate 51% (n=2634)).

Seasonality

  • Current Month: September
  • Average Return: -0.48%
  • Median Return: +0.69%
  • Hit Rate: 60%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
  • Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
  • Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-10-02

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓0.9% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑2.3% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (↓7.3% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (↑5.3% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓7.0% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (7):

[1] The Japanese Yen finally rallies on something Tokyo did not pay for URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/the-japanese-yen-finally-rallies-on-something-tokyo-did-not-pay-for-202609032155 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 21:55:53 GMT

[2] Banxico's Heath says rate cuts can wait as core inflation persists URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/banxicos-heath-says-rate-cuts-can-wait-as-core-inflation-persists-202609032153 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 21:53:27 GMT

[3] Mexican Peso rescued by Waller's dovish tilt, appreciates ahead of NFP URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexican-peso-rescued-by-wallers-dovish-tilt-appreciates-ahead-of-nfp-202609032142 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 21:42:47 GMT

[4] Singapore: PMI points to transitory weakness - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/singapore-pmi-points-to-transitory-weakness-uob-202609032141 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 21:41:00 GMT

[5] The British Pound bounces on a hike argument that lost 6-3 in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/the-british-pound-bounces-on-a-hike-argument-that-lost-6-3-in-july-202609032140 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 21:40:25 GMT

[6] Dow Jones Industrial Average rallies into a payrolls print it cannot win URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-industrial-average-rallies-into-a-payrolls-print-it-cannot-win-202609032139 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 21:39:07 GMT

[7] Indonesian Rupiah: Depreciation trend persists as oil shock weighs - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesian-rupiah-depreciation-trend-persists-as-oil-shock-weighs-mufg-202609032113 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 21:13:49 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (6):

[1] Baghaei says Qatar document confirms Iran strikes targeted US sites Time: 2026-09-03T21:57:30.007Z

[2] Yemeni forces clash with Iran-backed Houthis - Al Arabiya Time: 2026-09-03T21:47:32.371Z

[3] Jordan, Bahrain kings call for halt to Iran-US escalation Time: 2026-09-03T21:02:24.264Z

[4] Vance says Iran's control of Strait of Hormuz 'effectively gone' Time: 2026-09-03T20:49:21.162Z

[5] King Charles says Iran conflict is 'going backwards' - Daily Mail Time: 2026-09-03T20:42:28.000Z

[6] Oman rejects Iran's Hormuz fee proposal despite IRGC claim - NY Post Time: 2026-09-03T20:12:34.106Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 187 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 8 of 60 normal daily β€” 13.3% of normal
  • Throughput: 5.0% of normal (0.5M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 465
  • Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 56.7x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS220 (+340% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.1 billion/day economic cost