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2026-W36

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-03 12:37:27 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +1.4% (3d) | Alignment: 71% (5 aligned, 2 divergent) Status: MIXED β€” Mixed β€” no clear signal consensus

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED DIX 0.465 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.85 call-heavy
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED GEX +6.1B strong suppression
Breadth βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Breadth 51% β€” mixed participation
Energy πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ— DIVERGENT Energy RISING β€” oil climbing, margin pressure building
growth_expectations πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ— DIVERGENT Copper/Gold -2.1% slowing Β· real yield 2.44% restrictive
Correlations 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED SPY/VIX -0.74 normal, SPY/DXY -0.36 normal, SPY/TNX -0.44 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.42 elevated
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 14.6 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 144 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.83 dealer stress
Inflation 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED Stagflation score 23 β€” low inflation risk
carry_risk βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” USD/JPY 5d -2.5% yen strengthening, MOVE 80 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED HY OAS 2.66% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose

Divergence read: Risk-on regime with dark pool, gamma, and correlations leaning bullish, but energy and growth expectations haven't signed on yet β€” rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 76/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $91, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.465; GEX positive at 6.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.6 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

  • Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

  • AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
  • Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $772.49 | 50 SMA $755.34 | 200 SMA $711.13 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $765.96
  • QQQ: $716.64 | 50 SMA $710.89 | 200 SMA $656.59 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $709.52
  • IWM: $295.00 | 50 SMA $297.10 | 200 SMA $272.08 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $295.99
  • VIX: 14.56 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.752%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $772.49 35.61 11.3 $765.96 Bearish 0.49
QQQ $716.64 31.38 21.4 $709.52 Bearish 0.46
IWM $295.00 34.88 10.9 $295.99 Neutral 1.47

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 14.56 52.82 20.0 $11.06 Neutral 1.32
TNX 47.52 β–² 65.66 23.2 - - -
GLD $411.69 52.30 42.3 $399.44 Bearish 0.46
DXY 98.89 32.96 35.8 - - -
SLV $60.57 52.59 14.0 $46.44 Bearish 0.37

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.465
  • DIX Signal: Moderate buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.06B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.66% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.99%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.40% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.3%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.8%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 47
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 32.6%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 42.0%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Energy 100.0% 0/0
Health Care 77.8% 0/0
Communication Services 73.7% 0/0
Financials 58.8% 0/0
Materials 58.3% 0/0
Consumer Staples 54.5% 0/0
Technology 53.8% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 44.1% 0/0
Industrials 32.8% 0/0
Real Estate 11.5% 0/0
Utilities 10.0% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: RISING
  • WTI Crude: $91.47 (5d: +9.7%)
  • Brent Crude: $95.60 | Spread: $4.13
  • RBOB Gasoline: $3.1200/gal
  • Heating Oil: $4.6100/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $60.43/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $65.14
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $10.44

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.736 normal
SPY / DXY -0.357 normal
SPY / TNX -0.437 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.419 elevated

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 79.71
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.18 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 2,810,914.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 2,393,195.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.85 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $402.0B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $772 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $772.49)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
  • Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.1% (as of 2026-09-02)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
  • Fragility Flags: Air Pocket high Β· Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.75%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.00 (Normal)
  • DXY: 98.89
  • Growth vs Value: 0.93
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.35% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.34%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 23/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6730.9B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $950.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.5B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,780B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,876B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,146B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,801B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $81,165 (Risk-on)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $142.23 (vs 20d avg 129.58, +2.1Οƒ), floor $75.00 β€” potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
  • [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.465, GEX +6.1B, HY OAS 2.66%, breadth 51%.
  • [WARNING] SKEW at 144 β€” elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
  • [INFO] Screener: RRC β€” promotion-ready (92d on list, HIGH conviction 66/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated precatalyst_coiling hit-rate 50% (n=2537)).
  • [INFO] Screener: RRC β€” new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 66/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated precatalyst_coiling hit-rate 50% (n=2537)). Worth a look.
  • [INFO] Screener: ODFL β€” promotion-ready (3d on list, HIGH conviction 62/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5259)).
  • [INFO] Screener: DG β€” promotion-ready (7d on list, HIGH conviction 62/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 56% @10d (n=218)).
  • [INFO] Screener: TTC β€” new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 68/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5259)). Worth a look.
  • [INFO] Screener: SJM β€” promotion-ready (8d on list, HIGH conviction 66/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 56% @10d (n=218)).

Seasonality

  • Current Month: September
  • Average Return: -0.48%
  • Median Return: +0.68%
  • Hit Rate: 60%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
  • Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓0.9% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑2.3% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (↓7.3% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (↑5.3% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓7.0% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (1):

[1] Cryptocurrencies price prediction: XRP, Ethereum & Bitcoin - American Wrap 03 September URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-xrp-ethereum-bitcoin-american-wrap-03-september-202609031627 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 16:27:19 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (1):

[1] Iran estimates war damage to fisheries at over $27 million Time: 2026-09-03T16:03:59.399Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 187 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 8 of 60 normal daily β€” 13.3% of normal
  • Throughput: 13.0% of normal (1.3M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 119
  • Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 60.0x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS285 (+470% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost