Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-03 10:40:46 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.9% (3d) | Alignment: 83% (5 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.465 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.88 call-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +6.1B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 51% β mixed participation |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold -1.7% neutral Β· real yield 2.44% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.74 normal, SPY/DXY -0.25 normal, SPY/TNX -0.38 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.44 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.0 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 144 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.77 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 23 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | USD/JPY 5d -2.5% yen strengthening, MOVE 80 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.65% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose |
Divergence read: Risk-on regime with dark pool, gamma, and correlations leaning bullish, but energy haven't signed on yet β rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 77/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $92, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.465; GEX positive at 6.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.0 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $768.23 | 50 SMA $755.34 | 200 SMA $711.13 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $755.87
- QQQ: $711.72 | 50 SMA $710.89 | 200 SMA $656.59 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $708.97
- IWM: $293.90 | 50 SMA $297.10 | 200 SMA $272.08 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $296.55
- VIX: 14.97 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.762%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $768.23 | 35.61 | 11.3 | $755.87 | Neutral | 0.89 |
| QQQ | $711.72 | 31.38 | 21.4 | $708.97 | Neutral | 0.78 |
| IWM | $293.90 | 34.88 | 10.9 | $296.55 | Bearish | 2.15 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 14.97 | 52.82 | 20.0 | $11.06 | Neutral | 1.25 |
| TNX | 47.62 | 65.66 | 23.2 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $409.67 | 52.30 | 42.3 | $399.62 | Bearish | 0.49 |
| DXY | 99.01 | 34.31 | 31.8 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $59.94 | 52.59 | 14.0 | $43.00 | Bearish | 0.43 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.465
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.06B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.65% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.40% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.3%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.8%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 47
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.0%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 100.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 77.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 73.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 58.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 58.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 54.5% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 53.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 44.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 32.8% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 11.5% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $92.22 (5d: +10.6%)
- Brent Crude: $96.57 | Spread: $4.35
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9600/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.6600/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $55.90/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $65.47
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.65
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.742 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.249 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.381 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.436 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 79.71
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.19 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 1,119,929.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 986,906.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.88 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $161.8B
- Gamma Call Wall: $768 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $768.23)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +2.1% (as of 2026-09-02)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.76%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.01 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.01
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.35% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.34%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 23/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6730.9B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $950.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.5B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,780B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,876B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,146B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,801B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $78,764 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $143.21 (vs 20d avg 129.58, +2.3Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.465, GEX +6.1B, HY OAS 2.65%, breadth 51%.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 144 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [INFO] Screener: RRC β promotion-ready (92d on list, HIGH conviction 66/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated precatalyst_coiling hit-rate 50% (n=2537)).
- [INFO] Screener: RRC β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 66/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated precatalyst_coiling hit-rate 50% (n=2537)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: ODFL β promotion-ready (3d on list, HIGH conviction 62/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5259)).
- [INFO] Screener: DG β promotion-ready (7d on list, HIGH conviction 62/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 56% @10d (n=218)).
- [INFO] Screener: TTC β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 68/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5259)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: SJM β promotion-ready (8d on list, HIGH conviction 66/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 56% @10d (n=218)).
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.50%
- Median Return: +0.45%
- Hit Rate: 60%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-10-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β2.3% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β7.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β7.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (7):
[1] Euro gains against US Dollar as Waller tempers Fed rate-hike bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-gains-against-us-dollar-as-waller-tempers-fed-rate-hike-bets-202609031410 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 14:10:07 GMT
[2] Swiss Franc: Hot inflation and SNB path - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-hot-inflation-and-snb-path-bbh-202609031407 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 14:07:31 GMT
[3] United States ISM Services Prices Paid: 72.6 (August) vs 70.3 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-ism-services-prices-paid-726-august-vs-703-202609031400 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 14:00:01 GMT
[4] United States ISM Services PMI came in at 55.4, above forecasts (54.3) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-ism-services-pmi-came-in-at-554-above-forecasts-543-in-august-202609031400 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 14:00:01 GMT
[5] United States ISM Services Employment Index climbed from previous 47.4 to 47.8 in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-ism-services-employment-index-climbed-from-previous-474-to-478-in-august-202609031400 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 14:00:01 GMT
[6] United States ISM Services New Orders Index climbed from previous 57.2 to 60.9 in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-ism-services-new-orders-index-climbed-from-previous-572-to-609-in-august-202609031400 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 14:00:00 GMT
[7] Gold: Longer-term landscape improves - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-longer-term-landscape-improves-td-securities-202609031358 Published: Thu, 03 Sep 2026 13:58:45 GMT
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 187 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 6 of 60 normal daily β 10.0% of normal
- Throughput: 5.0% of normal (0.5M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 350
- Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 50.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS380 (+660% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost