Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-02 11:24:28 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.2% (3d) | Alignment: 29% (2 aligned, 5 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.469 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.98 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +4.6B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 51% β mixed participation |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -3.8% growth pessimism Β· real yield 2.44% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.74 normal, SPY/DXY -0.24 normal, SPY/TNX -0.34 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.48 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.4 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 149 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.68 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 24 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d -0.4% stable, MOVE 78 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.65% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose |
Divergence read: SPY slipping but gamma, correlations, and inflation flash bullish against the risk-on tape β 5 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip. Watch for: breadth expansion above 55% (bullish resolution).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 78/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 5 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $91, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.469; GEX positive at 4.6B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.4 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: DLR, ELAN, PFE
- Shorts: BBY, WTW
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 13% (n=194) | 3d 36% (n=194) | 5d 34% (n=194)
- Screener Board Record: 304 closed (hit rate 48%) Β· 167 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $765.69 | 50 SMA $754.71 | 200 SMA $710.66 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $755.93
- QQQ: $708.94 | 50 SMA $710.98 | 200 SMA $656.08 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $707.19
- IWM: $292.81 | 50 SMA $297.13 | 200 SMA $271.79 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $292.55
- VIX: 15.45 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.800%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $765.69 | 38.41 | 26.9 | $755.93 | Neutral | 0.89 |
| QQQ | $708.94 | 38.20 | 38.0 | $707.19 | Neutral | 1.04 |
| IWM | $292.81 | 28.88 | 17.8 | $292.55 | Bearish | 2.28 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.45 | 59.89 | 17.6 | $11.07 | Neutral | 0.95 |
| TNX | 48.00 | 60.63 | 31.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $400.75 | 45.07 | 41.8 | $399.25 | Neutral | 0.87 |
| DXY | 99.51 | 40.37 | 23.9 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $58.66 | 46.71 | 14.2 | $41.00 | Neutral | 0.74 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.469
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.58B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.65% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.40% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.3%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.8%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 46
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.3%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.8%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 100.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 77.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 73.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 58.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 58.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 54.5% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 53.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 44.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 32.8% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 11.5% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $90.70 (5d: +8.6%)
- Brent Crude: $95.41 | Spread: $4.71
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1700/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.7300/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $64.28/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $64.78
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.68
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.742 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.245 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.343 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.479 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.88
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 1,310,328.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 1,280,711.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.98 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $198.4B
- Gamma Call Wall: $767 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $765.69)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.5% (as of 2026-08-26)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.80%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.03 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.51
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.37% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.35%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 24/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6730.9B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $950.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,779B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,859B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,060B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,699B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $76,875 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $141.0 (vs 20d avg 128.27, +2.1Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.469, GEX +4.6B, HY OAS 2.65%, breadth 51%.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 149 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [INFO] Screener: 1 fresh PRIMED high-conviction name(s) for 2026-09-02 β CRWD (conviction 62/100, post_earnings_digestion, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 49% (n=9749)). Calibrated setups only; decision-support, not advice.
- [INFO] Screener: HPQ β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 65/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 49% (n=9749)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: CBOE β promotion-ready (3d on list, HIGH conviction 69/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5212)).
- [INFO] Screener: CRWD β promotion-ready (6d on list, HIGH conviction 62/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 49% (n=9749)).
- [INFO] Screener: CRWD β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 62/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 49% (n=9749)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: FTNT β promotion-ready (9d on list, HIGH conviction 71/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5212)).
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.53%
- Median Return: +0.30%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-10-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β2.3% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β7.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β7.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
No new articles found since last report.
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Iran foreign minister meets senior Hamas official in Tehran Time: 2026-09-02T15:06:41.974Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 186 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 9 of 60 normal daily β 15.0% of normal
- Throughput: 15.0% of normal (1.5M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 70
- Oil Prices: Brent $88.24 (-4.82%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 55.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS185 (+270% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.8 billion/day economic cost