Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-02 10:35:19 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.2% (3d) | Alignment: 14% (1 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | DIX 0.469 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.88 call-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +4.6B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 51% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -3.6% growth pessimism Β· real yield 2.44% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.74 normal, SPY/DXY -0.23 normal, SPY/TNX -0.36 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.49 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.4 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 149 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.70 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 24 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d -0.3% stable, MOVE 78 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.63% benign, NFCI -0.558 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β dark pool, gamma, and correlations flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 7 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds. Watch for: breadth expansion above 55% (bullish resolution).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 80/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.469; GEX positive at 4.6B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.4 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $765.54 | 50 SMA $754.71 | 200 SMA $710.66 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $755.93
- QQQ: $709.59 | 50 SMA $710.98 | 200 SMA $656.08 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $707.21
- IWM: $293.45 | 50 SMA $297.13 | 200 SMA $271.79 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $292.58
- VIX: 15.43 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.792%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $765.54 | 38.41 | 26.9 | $755.93 | Neutral | 0.91 |
| QQQ | $709.59 | 38.20 | 38.0 | $707.21 | Neutral | 0.97 |
| IWM | $293.45 | 28.88 | 17.8 | $292.58 | Bearish | 2.13 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.43 | 59.89 | 17.6 | $11.07 | Neutral | 0.96 |
| TNX | 47.92 | 60.63 | 31.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $402.35 | 45.07 | 41.8 | $399.27 | Neutral | 0.78 |
| DXY | 99.56 | 41.12 | 23.6 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $58.90 | 46.71 | 14.2 | $41.00 | Neutral | 0.70 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.469
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.58B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.63% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.98%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.40% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.3%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.8%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 46
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.2%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.6%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 100.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 77.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 73.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 58.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 58.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 54.5% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 53.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 44.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 32.8% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 11.5% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $89.81 (5d: +7.5%)
- Brent Crude: $94.57 | Spread: $4.76
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1600/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.6700/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $64.05/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $64.75
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.58
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.744 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.235 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.361 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.495 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.88
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 890,330.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 779,796.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.88 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $127.8B
- Gamma Call Wall: $767 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $765.54)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.5% (as of 2026-08-26)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.79%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.02 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.56
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.37% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.35%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 24/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6730.9B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $950.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,779B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,856B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,023B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,659B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $76,695 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $140.08 (vs 20d avg 128.27, +1.9Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 5/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β structural repricing risk elevated.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.469, GEX +4.6B, HY OAS 2.63%, breadth 51%.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 149 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [INFO] Screener: 1 fresh PRIMED high-conviction name(s) for 2026-09-02 β CRWD (conviction 62/100, post_earnings_digestion, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 49% (n=9749)). Calibrated setups only; decision-support, not advice.
- [INFO] Screener: HPQ β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 65/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 49% (n=9749)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: CBOE β promotion-ready (3d on list, HIGH conviction 69/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5212)).
- [INFO] Screener: CRWD β promotion-ready (6d on list, HIGH conviction 62/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 49% (n=9749)).
- [INFO] Screener: CRWD β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 62/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 49% (n=9749)). Worth a look.
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.55%
- Median Return: +0.30%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-10-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β2.3% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β7.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β7.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (2):
[1] New Zealand Dollar: RBNZ cautious tightening path - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-rbnz-cautious-tightening-path-uob-202609021407 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 14:07:46 GMT
[2] Gold sellers cautious amidst weak ADP numbers, NFP on radar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-sellers-cautious-amidst-weak-adp-numbers-nfp-on-radar-202609021401 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 14:01:57 GMT
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 186 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 9 of 60 normal daily β 15.0% of normal
- Throughput: 18.3% of normal (1.9M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 437
- Oil Prices: Brent $88.24 (-4.82%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 58.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS459 (+818% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost