Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-02 09:30:51 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.7% (3d) | Alignment: 29% (2 aligned, 5 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.469 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.96 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +4.6B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 51% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -2.9% slowing Β· real yield 2.44% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.72 normal, SPY/DXY -0.22 normal, SPY/TNX -0.35 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.48 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.1 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 149 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.63 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 24 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.2% stable, MOVE 78 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.63% benign, NFCI -0.558 loose |
Divergence read: SPY slipping but gamma, correlations, and inflation flash bullish against the risk-on tape β 5 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip. Watch for: breadth expansion above 55% (bullish resolution).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 74/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 5 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.469; GEX positive at 4.6B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.1 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $762.12 | 50 SMA $754.71 | 200 SMA $710.66 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $761.85
- QQQ: $706.34 | 50 SMA $710.98 | 200 SMA $656.08 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $707.27
- IWM: $291.37 | 50 SMA $297.13 | 200 SMA $271.79 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $297.45
- VIX: 16.09 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.788%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $762.12 | 38.41 | 26.9 | $761.85 | Neutral | 1.34 |
| QQQ | $706.34 | 38.20 | 38.0 | $707.27 | Neutral | 1.23 |
| IWM | $291.37 | 28.88 | 17.8 | $297.45 | Bearish | 3.67 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.09 | 59.89 | 17.6 | $11.07 | Neutral | 0.89 |
| TNX | 47.88 | 60.63 | 31.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $400.00 | 45.07 | 41.8 | $399.30 | Neutral | 1.25 |
| DXY | 99.72 | 44.04 | 23.4 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $58.81 | 46.71 | 14.2 | $41.00 | Neutral | 0.99 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.469
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.58B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.63% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.98%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.40% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.3%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.8%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 46
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.0%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 100.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 77.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 73.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 58.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 58.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 54.5% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 53.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 44.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 32.8% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 11.5% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $89.72 (5d: +7.4%)
- Brent Crude: $94.43 | Spread: $4.71
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1900/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.6700/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $64.98/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $64.45
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.58
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.723 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.222 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.355 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.477 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.88
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 276.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 542.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.96 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $0.1B
- Gamma Call Wall: $763 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $762.12)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.5% (as of 2026-08-26)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.79%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.01 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.72
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.37% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.35%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 24/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6730.9B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $950.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,779B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,856B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,023B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,659B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $76,702 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] 0DTE put/call ratio at 1.96 β extreme hedging activity.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $139.52 (vs 20d avg 128.27, +1.8Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.469, GEX +4.6B, HY OAS 2.63%, breadth 51%.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 149 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [INFO] SPY (762.12) reclaimed ZGL (761.85) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] SPY (761.76) dropped below ZGL (761.85) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~52h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.55%
- Median Return: +0.30%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-10-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β2.3% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β7.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.4% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β7.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (6):
[1] Silver rebounds above $64 as weak US jobs data challenges hawkish Fed bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-rebounds-above-64-as-weak-us-jobs-data-challenges-hawkish-fed-bets-202609021313 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 13:13:45 GMT
[2] Silver depends on two Metals that just fell URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/silver-depends-on-two-metals-that-just-fell-202609021313 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 13:13:34 GMT
[3] Euro stays under pressure against US Dollar despite softer ADP data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-stays-under-pressure-against-us-dollar-despite-softer-adp-data-202609021313 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 13:13:22 GMT
[4] European Central Bank: Dovish hike path as energy drives inflation - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/european-central-bank-dovish-hike-path-as-energy-drives-inflation-ing-202609021310 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 13:10:50 GMT
[5] Singapore Manufacturing PMI up to 51.5 in August from previous 51.4 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/singapore-manufacturing-pmi-up-to-515-in-august-from-previous-514-202609021304 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 13:04:45 GMT
[6] Cryptocurrencies Price Prediction: Ripple, Bitcoin & Crypto - European Wrap 2 September URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-ripple-bitcoin-crypto-european-wrap-2-september-202609021303 Published: Wed, 02 Sep 2026 13:03:33 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] CENTCOM denies targeting civilians after Iran reports wedding strike Time: 2026-09-02T13:13:13.892Z
[2] US strikes on Iran aimed to foil plot against Hormuz undersea cables - Al Arabiya Time: 2026-09-02T13:08:56.402Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 186 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 3 of 60 normal daily β 5.0% of normal
- Throughput: 5.0% of normal (0.5M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 437
- Oil Prices: Brent $88.24 (-4.82%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 50.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS325 (+550% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost