Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-01 20:01:07 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -1.0% (3d) | Alignment: 33% (2 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.468 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.09 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +5.0B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 51% β mixed participation |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -4.3% growth pessimism Β· real yield 2.44% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.68 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.24 normal, SPY/TNX -0.37 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.48 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.3 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 149 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.58 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 24 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.6% stable, MOVE 78 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.63% benign, NFCI -0.566 loose |
Divergence read: SPY slipping but gamma, inflation, and carry flash bullish against the risk-on tape β 4 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip. Watch for: breadth expansion above 55% (bullish resolution).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 76/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $91, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.468; GEX positive at 5.0B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.3 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $761.56 | 50 SMA $754.36 | 200 SMA $710.27 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $755.83
- QQQ: $707.53 | 50 SMA $711.59 | 200 SMA $655.65 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $708.99
- IWM: $290.55 | 50 SMA $297.28 | 200 SMA $271.56 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $297.51
- VIX: 16.34 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.796%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $761.56 | 45.91 | 32.2 | $755.83 | Bearish | 2.76 |
| QQQ | $707.53 | 48.68 | 38.8 | $708.99 | Bearish | 3.99 |
| IWM | $290.55 | 36.97 | 23.1 | $297.51 | Bearish | 6.99 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.34 | 47.85 | 11.2 | $11.06 | Neutral | 1.06 |
| TNX | 47.96 | 57.40 | 36.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $397.17 | 54.97 | 37.0 | $344.62 | Bearish | 1.78 |
| DXY | 99.67 | 47.02 | 24.1 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $57.97 | 55.05 | 12.1 | $39.00 | Neutral | 1.19 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.468
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.03B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.63% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.98%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.40% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.3%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.8%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 46
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.0%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 100.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 77.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 73.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 58.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 58.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 54.5% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 53.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 44.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 32.8% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 11.5% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $90.68 (5d: +10.3%)
- Brent Crude: $95.22 | Spread: $4.54
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1600/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.7100/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $63.74/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $64.77
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.58
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.675 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.243 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.367 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.485 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.88
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,074,508.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,455,069.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.09 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $649.8B
- Gamma Call Wall: $772 | Put Wall: $762 (Spot: $761.56)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.5% (as of 2026-08-26)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.80%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.02 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.67
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.37% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.35%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 24/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6730.9B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $950.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,779B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,856B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,023B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,659B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,438 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $141.0 (vs 20d avg 127.01, +2.4Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $63.74/bbl (vs 20d avg 57.69, +2.5Ο), floor $35.00/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.468, GEX +5.0B, HY OAS 2.63%, breadth 51%.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 149 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [INFO] Screener: AMH β promotion-ready (41d on list, HIGH conviction 65/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 47% (n=2709)).
- [INFO] Screener: GRMN β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 72/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5212)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: UNP β promotion-ready (91d on list, HIGH conviction 78/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5212)).
- [INFO] Screener: UNP β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 78/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=5212)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: INCY β promotion-ready (40d on list, HIGH conviction 62/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 47% (n=2709)).
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.55%
- Median Return: +0.30%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β2.3% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β7.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.4% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β7.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (9):
[1] US military confirms hits Iranian air defence and naval sites URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-military-confirms-hits-iranian-air-defence-and-naval-sites-202609012355 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 23:55:41 GMT
[2] Japan Monetary Base (YoY) came in at -15.7% below forecasts (-13.5%) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-monetary-base-yoy-came-in-at-157-below-forecasts-135-in-august-202609012350 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 23:50:52 GMT
[3] Gold slumps below $4,350 on higher US yields, hawkish Fed bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-slumps-below-4-350-on-higher-us-yields-hawkish-fed-bets-202609012328 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 23:28:14 GMT
[4] South Korea Consumer Price Index Growth (YoY) registered at 3.1%, below expectations (3.2%) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korea-consumer-price-index-growth-yoy-registered-at-31-below-expectations-32-in-august-202609012300 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 23:00:00 GMT
[5] South Korea Consumer Price Index Growth (MoM) came in at 0.2%, below expectations (0.3%) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korea-consumer-price-index-growth-mom-came-in-at-02-below-expectations-03-in-august-202609012300 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 23:00:00 GMT
[6] New Zealand Building Permits s.a. (MoM) dipped from previous -3.6% to -4.3% in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-building-permits-sa-mom-dipped-from-previous-36-to-43-in-july-202609012245 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 22:45:01 GMT
[7] Australian Dollar falls as US-Iran conflict lifts USD, GDP data eyed URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-falls-as-us-iran-conflict-lifts-usd-gdp-data-eyed-202609012239 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 22:39:26 GMT
[8] Chinese Yuan: Range-bound consolidation outlook against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/chinese-yuan-range-bound-consolidation-outlook-against-us-dollar-uob-202609012224 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 22:24:00 GMT
[9] EUR/USD Price Forecast: 200-day SMA caps Euro as Dollar firms URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-200-day-sma-caps-euro-as-dollar-firms-202609012204 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 22:04:15 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (7):
[1] Reports say serious damage to communications sites in Hormozgan Time: 2026-09-01T23:18:39.949Z
[2] Bahrain issues alert over potential threat, urges public to seek safety Time: 2026-09-01T23:14:09.480Z
[3] IRGC says ballistic missiles hit US drone hangars at Jordan base Time: 2026-09-01T23:08:52.052Z
[4] CENTCOM says US completes new strikes on IRGC targets in Iran Time: 2026-09-01T22:47:08.408Z
[5] Baghaei says Iran will respond 'with firmness' after reported Sirik wedding strike Time: 2026-09-01T22:42:39.410Z
[6] Bessent says US allies back campaign to 'asphyxiate' Iran's economy - NYT Time: 2026-09-01T22:16:10.779Z
[BREAKING] [7] Kuwait says air defenses responding to hostile drone attacks Time: 2026-09-01T22:12:30.636Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 185 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 9 of 60 normal daily β 15.0% of normal
- Throughput: 40.0% of normal (4.1M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 437
- Oil Prices: Brent $88.24 (-4.82%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 58.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS375 (+650% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost