Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-01 15:50:35 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -1.1% (3d) | Alignment: 33% (2 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.468 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.09 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +5.0B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 51% β mixed participation |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -4.5% growth pessimism Β· real yield 2.42% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.69 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.25 normal, SPY/TNX -0.37 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.49 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.4 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 149 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.58 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 21 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.6% stable, MOVE 75 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.63% benign, NFCI -0.566 loose |
Divergence read: SPY slipping but gamma, inflation, and carry flash bullish against the risk-on tape β 4 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip. Watch for: breadth expansion above 55% (bullish resolution).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 77/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $91, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.468; GEX positive at 5.0B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.4 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: ELAN, PFE, EL
- Shorts: BBY, WTW
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 13% (n=199) | 3d 36% (n=199) | 5d 34% (n=199)
- Screener Board Record: 296 closed (hit rate 48%) Β· 165 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $761.02 | 50 SMA $754.36 | 200 SMA $710.27 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $755.89
- QQQ: $707.33 | 50 SMA $711.59 | 200 SMA $655.65 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $712.3
- IWM: $290.31 | 50 SMA $297.28 | 200 SMA $271.56 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $266.21
- VIX: 16.40 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.796%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $761.02 | 45.91 | 32.2 | $755.89 | Bearish | 2.79 |
| QQQ | $707.33 | 48.68 | 38.8 | $712.30 | Bearish | 3.05 |
| IWM | $290.31 | 36.97 | 23.1 | $266.21 | Bearish | 7.60 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.40 | 47.85 | 11.2 | $11.06 | Neutral | 1.02 |
| TNX | 47.96 | 57.40 | 36.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $396.62 | 54.97 | 37.0 | $344.38 | Bearish | 1.70 |
| DXY | 99.69 | 47.49 | 24.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $57.88 | 55.05 | 12.1 | $39.00 | Neutral | 1.19 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.468
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.03B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.63% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.98%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.41% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.3%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.8%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 46
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.2%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.6%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 100.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 77.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 73.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 58.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 58.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 54.5% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 53.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 44.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 32.8% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 11.5% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $90.56 (5d: +10.1%)
- Brent Crude: $95.08 | Spread: $4.52
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1500/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.7100/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $63.58/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $64.67
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.60
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.686 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.251 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.368 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.491 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 75.32
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,976,341.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,343,611.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.09 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $633.2B
- Gamma Call Wall: $772 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $761.02)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.5% (as of 2026-08-26)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.80%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.02 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.69
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.31% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.31%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.31%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 21/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6730.9B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $950.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,779B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,862B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,026B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,668B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,280 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $140.82 (vs 20d avg 127.01, +2.3Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $63.58/bbl (vs 20d avg 57.69, +2.4Ο), floor $35.00/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.468, GEX +5.0B, HY OAS 2.63%, breadth 51%.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 149 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] AI-1 provider drift: 4 consecutive AI-1 reads were NOT served by the configured primary 'opencode_go' (threshold 3). Served by: anthropic (model=claude-opus-4-8). The primary is failing silently β the read looks correct but the flat-subscription path is re-metering against the Anthropic credit. (refresh #5)
- [CRITICAL] AI-1 read is dead: 4 consecutive AI-1 reads could not be parsed (threshold 2). model=claude-opus-4-8 stop_reason=max_tokens. stop_reason=max_tokens means the reply was TRUNCATED β a reasoning model burning the output budget is the known cause; check OPENCODE_GO_REASONING_EFFORT / OPENCODE_GO_MAX_TOKENS. (refresh #6)
- [INFO] SPY (760.19) reclaimed ZGL (755.97) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] SPY (759.90) dropped below ZGL (766.00) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [INFO] Screener: 2 fresh PRIMED high-conviction name(s) for 2026-09-01 β HLNE (conviction 74/100, range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=5139)); CDNS (conviction 64/100, range_noise, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 49% (n=9660)). Calibrated setups only; decision-support, not advice.
- [INFO] Screener: VRT β promotion-ready (15d on list, HIGH conviction 63/100, regime capitulation, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=5139)).
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.56%
- Median Return: +0.30%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β2.3% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β7.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.4% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β7.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (1):
[1] Gold collapses as US-Iran strikes send Oil, US yields higher URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-collapses-as-us-iran-strikes-send-oil-us-yields-higher-202609011930 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 19:30:49 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[BREAKING] [1] IRGC says retaliation has begun, US attacks 'tighten lock' on Hormuz Time: 2026-09-01T19:35:01.163Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 185 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 3 of 60 normal daily β 3.5% of normal
- Throughput: 3.5% of normal (0.4M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $88.24 (-4.82%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 56.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS220 (+340% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost