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2026-W36

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-01 13:47:56 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -1.0% (3d) | Alignment: 33% (2 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β€” Moderate divergence β€” several structural signals disagree with price

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” DIX 0.468 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.08 balanced
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT GEX +5.0B strong suppression
Breadth βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Breadth 51% β€” mixed participation
Energy πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED Energy RISING β€” oil climbing, margin pressure building
growth_expectations πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED Copper/Gold -4.0% growth pessimism Β· real yield 2.42% restrictive
Correlations βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” SPY/VIX -0.66 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.23 normal, SPY/TNX -0.36 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.47 elevated
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 16.0 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 149 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.62 dealer stress
Inflation 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Stagflation score 21 β€” low inflation risk
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT USD/JPY 5d +0.5% stable, MOVE 75 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β€” hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT HY OAS 2.63% benign, NFCI -0.566 loose

Divergence read: SPY slipping but gamma, inflation, and carry flash bullish against the risk-on tape β€” 4 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip. Watch for: breadth expansion above 55% (bullish resolution).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 77/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $90, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.468; GEX positive at 5.0B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.0 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

  • Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

  • AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
  • Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $761.80 | 50 SMA $754.36 | 200 SMA $710.27 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $755.87
  • QQQ: $707.89 | 50 SMA $711.59 | 200 SMA $655.65 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $712.42
  • IWM: $290.78 | 50 SMA $297.28 | 200 SMA $271.56 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $297.52
  • VIX: 15.98 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.792%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $761.80 45.91 32.2 $755.87 Bearish 2.36
QQQ $707.89 48.68 38.8 $712.42 Bearish 2.67
IWM $290.78 36.97 23.1 $297.52 Bearish 7.01

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 15.98 47.85 11.2 $11.06 Neutral 1.06
TNX 47.92 57.40 36.7 - - -
GLD $398.32 54.97 37.0 $380.97 Bearish 1.53
DXY 99.68 47.25 24.3 - - -
SLV $58.39 55.05 12.1 $41.00 Neutral 1.08

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.468
  • DIX Signal: Moderate buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.03B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.63% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.98%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.41% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.3%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.8%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 46
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 32.2%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 41.6%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Energy 100.0% 0/0
Health Care 77.8% 0/0
Communication Services 73.7% 0/0
Financials 58.8% 0/0
Materials 58.3% 0/0
Consumer Staples 54.5% 0/0
Technology 53.8% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 44.1% 0/0
Industrials 32.8% 0/0
Real Estate 11.5% 0/0
Utilities 10.0% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: RISING
  • WTI Crude: $90.01 (5d: +9.4%)
  • Brent Crude: $94.49 | Spread: $4.48
  • RBOB Gasoline: $3.1400/gal
  • Heating Oil: $4.6900/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $63.57/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $64.65
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $10.46

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.657 elevated
SPY / DXY -0.233 normal
SPY / TNX -0.359 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.465 elevated

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 75.32
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 2,855,086.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 3,095,900.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.08 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $453.3B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $767 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $761.80)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
  • Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.5% (as of 2026-08-26)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
  • Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.79%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.02 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.68
  • Growth vs Value: 0.93
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.31% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.31%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.31%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 21/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6730.9B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $950.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $6.7B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,773B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,860B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,026B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,659B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,818 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $139.87 (vs 20d avg 127.01, +2.2Οƒ), floor $75.00 β€” potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
  • [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $63.57/bbl (vs 20d avg 57.69, +2.4Οƒ), floor $35.00/bbl β€” refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
  • [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.468, GEX +5.0B, HY OAS 2.63%, breadth 51%.
  • [WARNING] SKEW at 149 β€” elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
  • [INFO] Screener: 2 fresh PRIMED high-conviction name(s) for 2026-09-01 β€” HLNE (conviction 74/100, range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=5139)); CDNS (conviction 64/100, range_noise, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 49% (n=9660)). Calibrated setups only; decision-support, not advice.
  • [INFO] Screener: VRT β€” promotion-ready (15d on list, HIGH conviction 63/100, regime capitulation, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=5139)).
  • [INFO] Screener: NSC β€” promotion-ready (91d on list, HIGH conviction 68/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 47% (n=2688)).
  • [INFO] Screener: CDNS β€” new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 64/100, regime range_noise, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 49% (n=9660)). Worth a look.
  • [INFO] Screener: NDSN β€” promotion-ready (21d on list, HIGH conviction 63/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 47% (n=2688)).

Seasonality

  • Current Month: September
  • Average Return: -0.54%
  • Median Return: +0.30%
  • Hit Rate: 55%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
  • Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓0.9% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑2.3% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (↓7.3% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (↑5.4% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓7.1% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (1):

[1] US President Trump says US striking Iranian targets near Hormuz URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-president-trump-says-us-striking-iranian-targets-near-hormuz-202609011734 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 17:34:32 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (2):

[BREAKING] [1] Iran military source vows response 'several times larger' to US strikes - IRGC outlet Time: 2026-09-01T17:37:04.103Z

[BREAKING] [2] Trump says US carrying out 'large and powerful' strikes near Hormuz Time: 2026-09-01T17:29:57.276Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 185 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 5 of 60 normal daily β€” 5.0% of normal
  • Throughput: 5.0% of normal (0.5M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 350
  • Oil Prices: Brent $88.24 (-4.82%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 60.0x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS175 (+250% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $8.5 billion/day economic cost