Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-01 11:49:26 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.6% (3d) | Alignment: 20% (1 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.468 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.95 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +5.0B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 51% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -4.0% growth pessimism Β· real yield 2.42% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.62 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.22 normal, SPY/TNX -0.33 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.42 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.2 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 149 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.72 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 21 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.5% stable, MOVE 75 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.60% benign, NFCI -0.566 loose |
Divergence read: SPY slipping but gamma, inflation, and carry flash bullish against the risk-on tape β 4 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip. Watch for: breadth expansion above 55% (bullish resolution).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 80/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.468; GEX positive at 5.0B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $764.45 | 50 SMA $754.36 | 200 SMA $710.27 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $755.81
- QQQ: $712.08 | 50 SMA $711.59 | 200 SMA $655.65 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $712.47
- IWM: $292.28 | 50 SMA $297.28 | 200 SMA $271.56 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $297.52
- VIX: 15.24 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.768%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $764.45 | 45.91 | 32.2 | $755.81 | Bearish | 1.58 |
| QQQ | $712.08 | 48.68 | 38.8 | $712.47 | Bearish | 1.60 |
| IWM | $292.28 | 36.97 | 23.1 | $297.52 | Bearish | 3.99 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.24 | 47.85 | 11.2 | $11.06 | Neutral | 1.15 |
| TNX | 47.68 | 57.40 | 36.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $400.70 | 54.97 | 37.0 | $380.97 | Bearish | 2.28 |
| DXY | 99.64 | 46.53 | 23.8 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $58.83 | 55.05 | 12.1 | $41.00 | Neutral | 1.00 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.468
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.03B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.60% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.97%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.41% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.3%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.8%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 46
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.1%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.5%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 100.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 77.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 73.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 58.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 58.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 54.5% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 53.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 44.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 32.8% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 11.5% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $88.16 (5d: +7.2%)
- Brent Crude: $92.54 | Spread: $4.38
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1000/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.6200/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $63.32/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $64.32
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.39
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.622 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.217 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.325 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.416 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 75.32
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 1,782,469.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 1,690,315.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.95 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $265.5B
- Gamma Call Wall: $767 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $764.45)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.5% (as of 2026-08-26)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.77%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.00 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.64
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.31% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.31%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.31%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 21/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6730.9B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $950.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $6.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,773B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,860B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,026B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,659B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,721 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $63.32/bbl (vs 20d avg 57.69, +2.3Ο), floor $35.00/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.468, GEX +5.0B, HY OAS 2.60%, breadth 51%.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 149 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [INFO] Screener: 2 fresh PRIMED high-conviction name(s) for 2026-09-01 β HLNE (conviction 74/100, range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=5139)); CDNS (conviction 64/100, range_noise, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 49% (n=9660)). Calibrated setups only; decision-support, not advice.
- [INFO] Screener: VRT β promotion-ready (15d on list, HIGH conviction 63/100, regime capitulation, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=5139)).
- [INFO] Screener: NSC β promotion-ready (91d on list, HIGH conviction 68/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 47% (n=2688)).
- [INFO] Screener: CDNS β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 64/100, regime range_noise, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 49% (n=9660)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: NDSN β promotion-ready (21d on list, HIGH conviction 63/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 47% (n=2688)).
- [INFO] Screener: RGEN β promotion-ready (91d on list, HIGH conviction 71/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=5139)).
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.55%
- Median Return: +0.30%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β2.3% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β7.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.4% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β7.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (3):
[1] Australian Dollar trades cautiously as Fed and RBA rate hike bets clash URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-trades-cautiously-as-fed-and-rba-rate-hike-bets-clash-202609011544 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 15:44:23 GMT
[2] Germany: Coalition risks and reform hurdles - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-coalition-risks-and-reform-hurdles-commerzbank-202609011538 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 15:38:00 GMT
[3] British Pound stalls as mixed US data keeps Fed hawkish bets alive URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-stalls-as-mixed-us-data-keeps-fed-hawkish-bets-alive-202609011533 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 15:33:09 GMT
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 185 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 3 of 60 normal daily β 5.0% of normal
- Throughput: 5.0% of normal (0.5M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 350
- Oil Prices: Brent $88.24 (-4.82%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 58.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS350 (+600% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost