Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-31 22:01:22 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.4% (3d) | Alignment: 17% (1 aligned, 5 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | DIX 0.468 above 0.45 and rising β institutions accumulating, 0DTE PCR 1.15 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +5.0B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 51% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -7.4% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.42% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.58 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.17 normal, SPY/TNX -0.32 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.38 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 14.9 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 149 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.78 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 21 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.4% stable, MOVE 75 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.60% benign, NFCI -0.566 loose |
Divergence read: SPY slipping but dark pool, gamma, and inflation flash bullish against the risk-on tape β 5 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip. Watch for: breadth expansion above 55% (bullish resolution).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 80/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 5 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX rising to 0.468 (institutional accumulation increasing); GEX positive at 5.0B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads tightening (risk appetite improving). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.9 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $767.39 | 50 SMA $753.96 | 200 SMA $709.85 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $755.71
- QQQ: $716.85 | 50 SMA $712.06 | 200 SMA $655.17 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $712.4
- IWM: $293.90 | 50 SMA $297.31 | 200 SMA $271.31 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $297.64
- VIX: 14.92 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.758%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $767.39 | 45.72 | 32.7 | $755.71 | Bearish | 1.74 |
| QQQ | $716.85 | 46.65 | 39.0 | $712.40 | Neutral | 0.80 |
| IWM | $293.90 | 41.96 | 22.6 | $297.64 | Bearish | 4.62 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 14.92 | 43.60 | 12.9 | $11.06 | Neutral | 1.19 |
| TNX | 47.58 | 52.20 | 45.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $408.16 | 54.17 | 38.5 | $404.57 | Neutral | 0.84 |
| DXY | 99.41 | 42.97 | 31.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $60.14 | 51.86 | 13.0 | $44.00 | Bearish | 0.49 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.468
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.03B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.60% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.97%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.41% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 51.3%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.8%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 13
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.1%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.6%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 100.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 77.8% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 73.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 58.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 58.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 54.5% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 53.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 44.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 32.8% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 11.5% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $86.31 (5d: +4.8%)
- Brent Crude: $88.53 | Spread: $2.22
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1100/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.4400/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $62.93/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $63.96
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.54
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.58 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.17 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.319 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.379 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 75.32
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,153,015.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,624,093.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.15 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $519.8B
- Gamma Call Wall: $772 | Put Wall: $767 (Spot: $767.39)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.5% (as of 2026-08-26)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.76%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.03 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.41
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.30% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.31%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.32%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 21/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6730.9B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $950.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $6.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,773B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,872B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,034B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,679B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $78,333 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.468, GEX +5.0B, HY OAS 2.60%, breadth 51%.
- [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -7.4% β growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 149 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Data integrity: volatility_regime is STALE (~1h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: pct_above_50sma is STALE (~7h old vs an expected max of ~6h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [INFO] Screener: VRT β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 62/100, regime capitulation, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=5139)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: PFG β promotion-ready (90d on list, HIGH conviction 68/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 47% (n=2688)).
- [INFO] Screener: AME β promotion-ready (4d on list, HIGH conviction 74/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=5139)).
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.36%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β17.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β2.3% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β7.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.3% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.4% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β7.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (15):
[1] Japanese Yen bulls seem hesitant amid fiscal woes, wide US-Japan rate gap URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-bulls-seem-hesitant-amid-fiscal-woes-wide-us-japan-rate-gap-202609010156 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 01:56:18 GMT
[2] Australia Current Account Balance registered at -27.22B above expectations (-30B) in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-current-account-balance-registered-at-2722b-above-expectations-30b-in-2q-202609010147 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 01:47:00 GMT
[3] 51.5: China's RatingDog Manufacturing PMI climbs in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/515-chinas-ratingdog-manufacturing-pmi-climbs-in-august-202609010146 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 01:46:16 GMT
[4] Australia Building Permits (YoY) rose from previous 8.9% to 9% in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-building-permits-yoy-rose-from-previous-89-to-9-in-july-202609010146 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 01:46:15 GMT
[5] China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.5, above expectations (50.9) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-ratingdog-manufacturing-pmi-came-in-at-515-above-expectations-509-in-august-202609010145 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 01:45:47 GMT
[6] Australia Building Permits (MoM) above expectations (-4.8%) in July: Actual (-3.6%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-building-permits-mom-above-expectations-48-in-july-actual-36-202609010130 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 01:30:01 GMT
[7] PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7809 vs. 6.7828 previous URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pboc-sets-usd-cny-reference-rate-at-67809-vs-67828-previous-202609010115 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 01:15:25 GMT
[8] Canadian Dollar consolidates vs USD as rising oil prices and Fed hike bets clash URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-consolidates-vs-usd-as-rising-oil-prices-and-fed-hike-bets-clash-202609010113 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 01:13:53 GMT
[9] WTI holds above $85.50 as Middle East risks tighten global supply URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-holds-above-8550-as-middle-east-risks-tighten-global-supply-202609010113 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 01:13:33 GMT
[10] Euro holds gains above 1.1600 ahead of Eurozone HICP inflation data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-holds-gains-above-11600-ahead-of-eurozone-hicp-inflation-data-202609010057 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 00:57:18 GMT
[11] Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI registered at 54.9, below expectations (55.1) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-jibun-bank-manufacturing-pmi-registered-at-549-below-expectations-551-in-august-202609010031 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 00:31:01 GMT
[12] South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 52.3 (August) vs previous 53.1 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korea-sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-523-august-vs-previous-531-202609010030 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 00:30:46 GMT
[13] Bitcoin holds near $80,000 amid cooling spot activity and stable institutional demand URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-holds-near-80-000-amid-cooling-spot-activity-and-stable-institutional-demand-202609010014 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 00:14:07 GMT
[14] South Korea Trade Balance came in at $34.75B, above expectations ($30.7B) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korea-trade-balance-came-in-at-3475b-above-expectations-307b-in-august-202609010010 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 00:10:01 GMT
[15] Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI climbed from previous 55.1 to 55.4 in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ireland-aib-manufacturing-pmi-climbed-from-previous-551-to-554-in-august-202609010009 Published: Tue, 01 Sep 2026 00:09:55 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] Iran tells UN Larak strike violated sovereignty, defends attacks on US bases Time: 2026-09-01T01:33:20.149Z
[2] Araghchi says US launched attacks from UAE territory Time: 2026-09-01T00:32:32.759Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 184 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 3 of 60 normal daily β 1.7% of normal
- Throughput: 1.7% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 350
- Oil Prices: Brent $88.24 (-4.82%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 33.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS275 (+450% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.1 billion/day economic cost