Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-31 09:16:31 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.4% (3d) | Alignment: 20% (1 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.459 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.99 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +4.5B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 54% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -8.2% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.34% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.59 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.18 normal, SPY/TNX -0.32 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.34 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.3 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 150 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.63 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 22 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.5% stable, MOVE 71 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.63% benign, NFCI -0.566 loose |
Divergence read: SPY slipping but gamma, inflation, and carry flash bullish against the risk-on tape β 4 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip. Watch for: breadth expansion above 55% (bullish resolution).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 80/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.459; GEX positive at 4.5B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.3 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: ELAN, PFE, EL
- Shorts: BBY, WTW
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 13% (n=205) | 3d 35% (n=205) | 5d 33% (n=205)
- Screener Board Record: 288 closed (hit rate 48%) Β· 158 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $767.13 | 50 SMA $753.96 | 200 SMA $709.85 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $755.96
- QQQ: $714.57 | 50 SMA $712.06 | 200 SMA $655.17 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $712.45
- IWM: $295.02 | 50 SMA $297.31 | 200 SMA $271.31 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $297.59
- VIX: 15.31 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.748%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $767.13 | 45.72 | 32.7 | $755.96 | Neutral | 1.19 |
| QQQ | $714.57 | 46.65 | 39.0 | $712.45 | Neutral | 0.94 |
| IWM | $295.02 | 41.96 | 22.6 | $297.59 | Bearish | 3.42 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.31 | 43.60 | 12.9 | $11.06 | Neutral | 1.06 |
| TNX | 47.48 βΌ | 52.20 | 45.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $407.66 | 54.17 | 38.5 | $404.66 | Neutral | 0.79 |
| DXY | 99.57 | 45.52 | 29.6 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $60.39 | 51.86 | 13.0 | $44.00 | Neutral | 0.60 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.459
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.48B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.63% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.98%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.39% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 54.5%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.5%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.1%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.6%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 94.7% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 78.9% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 77.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 69.7% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 66.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 61.8% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 53.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 47.5% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 38.8% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 19.2% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $85.71 (5d: +4.1%)
- Brent Crude: $88.23 | Spread: $2.52
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0500/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.2100/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $58.63/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $62.68
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.33
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.586 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.185 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.323 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.344 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 70.97
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.99 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $674.9B
- Gamma Call Wall: $772 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $767.13)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.5% (as of 2026-08-26)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.75%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.02 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.57
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.31% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.33%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.35%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 22/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6730.9B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $950.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,780B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,855B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,031B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,666B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $78,027 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.459, GEX +4.5B, HY OAS 2.63%, breadth 54%.
- [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -8.2% β growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 150 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [CRITICAL] AI-1 read is dead: 2 consecutive AI-1 reads could not be parsed (threshold 2). model=claude-opus-4-8 stop_reason=max_tokens. stop_reason=max_tokens means the reply was TRUNCATED β a reasoning model burning the output budget is the known cause; check OPENCODE_GO_REASONING_EFFORT / OPENCODE_GO_MAX_TOKENS.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~244h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~100h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~76h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.37%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β17.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β2.3% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.61 (β6.2% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.34 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β7.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (1):
[1] Silver rebounds, but Fed rate-hike threat hangs over the metal URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-rebounds-but-fed-rate-hike-threat-hangs-over-the-metal-202608311311 Published: Mon, 31 Aug 2026 13:11:23 GMT
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 184 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 3 of 60 normal daily β 5.0% of normal
- Throughput: 5.0% of normal (0.5M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 185
- Oil Prices: Brent $88.24 (-4.82%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 56.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS325 (+550% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost