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2026-W35

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-30 20:01:01 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -0.1% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (2 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β€” Strong divergence β€” structural signals broadly disagree with price

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT DIX 0.459 above 0.45 and rising β€” institutions accumulating, 0DTE PCR 0.99 balanced
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT GEX +4.5B strong suppression
Breadth βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Breadth 54% β€” mixed participation
Energy 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Energy STABLE β€” no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED Copper/Gold -7.3% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.34% restrictive
Correlations πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED SPY/VIX -0.21 extreme, SPY/DXY -0.17 normal, SPY/TNX -0.46 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.57 stretched
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 14.4 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 150 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 6.00 dealer stress
Inflation 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Stagflation score 22 β€” low inflation risk
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT USD/JPY 5d +0.7% stable, MOVE 71 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT HY OAS 2.63% benign, NFCI -0.566 loose

Divergence read: Strong divergence β€” dark pool, gamma, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β€” reversal risk if structure holds. Watch for: breadth expansion above 55% (bullish resolution).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 81/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show DIX rising to 0.459 (institutional accumulation increasing); GEX positive at 4.5B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads tightening (risk appetite improving). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.4 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

  • Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

  • AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
  • Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $769.41 | 50 SMA $753.39 | 200 SMA $709.41 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $768.41
  • QQQ: $716.32 | 50 SMA $712.19 | 200 SMA $654.71 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $704.3
  • IWM: $295.79 | 50 SMA $297.20 | 200 SMA $271.05 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $300.76
  • VIX: 14.43 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.720%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $769.41 47.40 40.2 $768.41 Neutral 0.93
QQQ $716.32 48.49 48.0 $704.30 Bearish 0.44
IWM $295.79 46.33 20.8 $300.76 Bearish 11.66

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 14.43 47.71 33.7 $11.05 Neutral 1.07
TNX 47.20 51.28 44.8 - - -
GLD $409.21 68.12 32.2 $419.35 Bearish 9.25
DXY 99.68 47.47 29.6 - - -
SLV $60.00 66.95 10.4 $44.00 Neutral 0.79

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.459
  • DIX Signal: Moderate buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.48B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.63% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.98%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.39% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 54.5%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.5%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 32.1%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 41.6%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Energy 94.7% 18/19
Communication Services 78.9% 15/19
Health Care 77.8% 42/54
Consumer Staples 69.7% 23/33
Materials 66.7% 16/24
Financials 61.8% 42/68
Technology 53.8% 35/65
Consumer Discretionary 47.5% 28/59
Industrials 38.8% 26/67
Real Estate 19.2% 5/26
Utilities 10.0% 3/30

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: STABLE
  • WTI Crude: $83.44 (5d: -1.9%)
  • Brent Crude: $88.29 | Spread: $4.85
  • RBOB Gasoline: $3.0500/gal
  • Heating Oil: $4.2400/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $61.32/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $62.68
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $10.33

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.208 extreme
SPY / DXY -0.171 normal
SPY / TNX -0.459 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.57 stretched

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 70.97
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 4,417,878.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 4,354,304.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.99 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $674.9B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $772 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $769.41)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
  • Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.5% (as of 2026-08-26)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.72%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.99 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.68
  • Growth vs Value: 0.93
  • Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: N/A
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.31% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.33%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.35%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 22/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6730.9B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $950.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,780B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,855B β–²
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,026B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,658B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,633 β–Ό (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 5/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β€” structural repricing risk elevated.
  • [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $61.32/bbl (vs 20d avg 57.35, +1.9Οƒ), floor $35.00/bbl β€” refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
  • [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.459, GEX +4.5B, HY OAS 2.63%, breadth 54%.
  • [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -7.3% β€” growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
  • [WARNING] SKEW at 150 β€” elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
  • [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β€” normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
  • [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β€” systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~193h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [INFO] Screener: NVDA β€” new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 62/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 49% (n=9083)). Worth a look.

Seasonality

  • Current Month: August
  • Average Return: +0.37%
  • Median Return: +1.41%
  • Hit Rate: 65%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
  • Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.9% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑2.3% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.61 (↓6.2% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.2% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.34 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓7.1% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (19):

[1] Japan Large Retailer Sales up to 2% in July from previous -1% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-large-retailer-sales-up-to-2-in-july-from-previous-1-202608302358 Published: Sun, 30 Aug 2026 23:58:43 GMT

[2] Japan Retail Trade s.a (MoM) increased to 2.4% in July from previous -4.1% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-retail-trade-sa-mom-increased-to-24-in-july-from-previous-41-202608302356 Published: Sun, 30 Aug 2026 23:56:10 GMT

[3] Japan Industrial Production (YoY): 4.1% (July) vs previous 4.9% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-industrial-production-yoy-41-july-vs-previous-49-202608302355 Published: Sun, 30 Aug 2026 23:55:26 GMT

[4] Japan Retail Trade s.a (MoM) up to -3.9% in July from previous -4.1% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-retail-trade-sa-mom-up-to-39-in-july-from-previous-41-202608302355 Published: Sun, 30 Aug 2026 23:55:25 GMT

[5] Japan Industrial Production (MoM) above forecasts (-0.6%) in July: Actual (0.1%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-industrial-production-mom-above-forecasts-06-in-july-actual-01-202608302355 Published: Sun, 30 Aug 2026 23:55:00 GMT

[6] Japan Retail Trade (YoY) above expectations (3%) in July: Actual (4%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-retail-trade-yoy-above-expectations-3-in-july-actual-4-202608302350 Published: Sun, 30 Aug 2026 23:50:06 GMT

[7] US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Japanese Yen moves 'pretty contained' and not disorderly URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-treasury-secretary-bessent-japanese-yen-moves-pretty-contained-and-not-disorderly-202608302347 Published: Sun, 30 Aug 2026 23:47:20 GMT

[8] Australian Dollar weakens to near 0.7150 as Fed's Warsh signals rate hikes, China's PMI data loom URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-weakens-to-near-07150-as-feds-warsh-signals-rate-hikes-chinas-pmi-data-loom-202608302332 Published: Sun, 30 Aug 2026 23:32:48 GMT

[9] South Korea Industrial Output Growth: 0.2% (July) vs previous 6.4% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korea-industrial-output-growth-02-july-vs-previous-64-202608302300 Published: Sun, 30 Aug 2026 23:00:26 GMT

[10] South Korea Industrial Output (YoY): 3.6% (July) vs previous 5.8% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korea-industrial-output-yoy-36-july-vs-previous-58-202608302300 Published: Sun, 30 Aug 2026 23:00:26 GMT

[11] South Korea Service Sector Output: -1.3% (July) vs previous 0.7% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korea-service-sector-output-13-july-vs-previous-07-202608302300 Published: Sun, 30 Aug 2026 23:00:25 GMT

[12] The $40 trillion debt is not America's only problem - Buy gold URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-40-trillion-debt-is-not-americas-only-problem-buy-gold-202608302254 Published: Sun, 30 Aug 2026 22:54:49 GMT

[13] Copper hits an all-time COT extreme as metals positioning reaches a critical test [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/copper-hits-an-all-time-cot-extreme-as-metals-positioning-reaches-a-critical-test-202608302249 Published: Sun, 30 Aug 2026 22:49:48 GMT

[14] How renewed AI optimism is placing 8,000 in sight for the S&P 500 in 2026 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/how-renewed-ai-optimism-is-placing-8-000-in-sight-for-the-sp-500-in-2026-202608302248 Published: Sun, 30 Aug 2026 22:48:09 GMT

[15] US military strikes Iranian rocket launchers in first attack in week URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-military-strikes-iranian-rocket-launchers-in-first-attack-in-week-202608302226 Published: Sun, 30 Aug 2026 22:26:31 GMT

[16] Weekly column: Warsh hawkish warning at Jackson Hole triggers equity pullback URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/weekly-column-warsh-hawkish-warning-at-jackson-hole-triggers-equity-pullback-202608301636 Published: Sun, 30 Aug 2026 16:36:48 GMT

[17] You're watching pre-market levels wrong [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/education/youre-watching-pre-market-levels-wrong-video-202608301633 Published: Sun, 30 Aug 2026 16:33:29 GMT

[18] SPX500USD price outlook: S&P 500 index navigating between arc levels. Potential continuation toward 7,790 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spx500usd-price-outlook-sp-500-index-navigating-between-arc-levels-potential-continuation-toward-7-790-202608301632 Published: Sun, 30 Aug 2026 16:32:08 GMT

[19] COT report - August 28, 2026 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/cot-report-august-28-2026-202608301628 Published: Sun, 30 Aug 2026 16:28:24 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (10):

[1] Bessent says US plans weekly Iran sanctions, starting with banks Time: 2026-08-30T23:55:16.890Z

[2] Jordan says it intercepted eight missiles Time: 2026-08-30T23:40:00.000Z

[3] Video appears to show Iranian missiles over Jordan Time: 2026-08-30T23:14:25.004Z

[BREAKING] [4] IRGC says it struck two US air bases in Jordan Time: 2026-08-30T22:57:09.577Z

[5] Iran denies Mehrabad Airport closure after US attack Time: 2026-08-30T22:53:56.395Z

[6] Iran attacking US forces in Jordan, Fox reporter says Time: 2026-08-30T22:30:35.536Z

[7] Fars News reports explosion at US air base in Qatar Time: 2026-08-30T22:25:19.753Z

[BREAKING] [8] Witness reports point to missile launches from western Iran Time: 2026-08-30T22:11:00.000Z

[9] Senior Iranian MP warns of 'devastating' response to Larak strike Time: 2026-08-30T21:59:59.581Z

[BREAKING] [10] IRGC-linked channel claims missile attacks on US warships, vessels Time: 2026-08-30T21:56:32.877Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 183 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 3 of 60 normal daily β€” 5.0% of normal
  • Throughput: 5.0% of normal (0.5M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 350
  • Oil Prices: Brent $88.24 (-4.82%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 53.3x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS475 (+850% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.9 billion/day economic cost