Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-28 21:45:07 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.1% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (2 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | DIX 0.459 above 0.45 and rising β institutions accumulating, 0DTE PCR 0.99 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +4.5B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 54% β mixed participation |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -7.3% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.34% restrictive |
| Correlations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.21 extreme, SPY/DXY -0.17 normal, SPY/TNX -0.46 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.57 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 14.4 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 150 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 6.00 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 22 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.7% stable, MOVE 71 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.63% benign, NFCI -0.566 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β dark pool, gamma, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds. Watch for: breadth expansion above 55% (bullish resolution).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 81/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX rising to 0.459 (institutional accumulation increasing); GEX positive at 4.5B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads tightening (risk appetite improving). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.4 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $769.41 | 50 SMA $753.39 | 200 SMA $709.41 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $768.41
- QQQ: $716.32 | 50 SMA $712.19 | 200 SMA $654.71 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $704.3
- IWM: $295.79 | 50 SMA $297.20 | 200 SMA $271.05 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $300.76
- VIX: 14.43 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.720%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $769.41 | 47.40 | 40.2 | $768.41 | Neutral | 0.93 |
| QQQ | $716.32 | 48.49 | 48.0 | $704.30 | Bearish | 0.44 |
| IWM | $295.79 | 46.33 | 20.8 | $300.76 | Bearish | 11.66 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 14.43 | 47.71 | 33.7 | $11.05 | Neutral | 1.07 |
| TNX | 47.20 | 51.28 | 44.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $409.21 | 68.12 | 32.2 | $419.35 | Bearish | 9.25 |
| DXY | 99.68 | 47.47 | 29.6 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $60.00 | 66.95 | 10.4 | $44.00 | Neutral | 0.79 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.459
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.48B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.63% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.98%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.39% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 54.5%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.5%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.1%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.6%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 94.7% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 78.9% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 77.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 69.7% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 66.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 61.8% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 53.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 47.5% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 38.8% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 19.2% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $83.44 (5d: -1.9%)
- Brent Crude: $88.29 | Spread: $4.85
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0500/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.2400/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $61.32/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $62.68
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.33
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.208 | extreme |
| SPY / DXY | -0.171 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.459 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.57 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 70.97
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,417,878.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,354,304.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.99 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $674.9B
- Gamma Call Wall: $769 | Put Wall: $768 (Spot: $769.41)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -67,994 contracts (Z +0.86, as of 2026-08-25)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.5% (as of 2026-08-26)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.72%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.99 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.68
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.31% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.33%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.35%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 22/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6730.9B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $950.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,780B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,851B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,024B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,655B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,803 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~193h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 6/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β structural repricing risk elevated.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $61.32/bbl (vs 20d avg 57.35, +1.9Ο), floor $35.00/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.459, GEX +4.5B, HY OAS 2.63%, breadth 54%.
- [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -7.3% β growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 150 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] Screener: NVDA β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 62/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 49% (n=9083)). Worth a look.
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.37%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β17.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β2.3% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.61 (β6.2% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.34 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β7.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (3):
[1] South Korean Won: BoK tightening supports KRW against US Dollar - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korean-won-bok-tightening-supports-krw-against-us-dollar-commerzbank-202608282341 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 23:41:00 GMT
[2] Vietnam: Exports and consumption stay robust - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/vietnam-exports-and-consumption-stay-robust-dbs-202608282307 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 23:07:00 GMT
[3] South Korean Won: BoK front-loading hikes as KRW consolidates - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korean-won-bok-front-loading-hikes-as-krw-consolidates-commerzbank-202608282233 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 22:33:00 GMT
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 181 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 3 of 60 normal daily β 5.0% of normal
- Throughput: 3.0% of normal (0.3M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 275
- Oil Prices: Brent $88.24 (-4.82%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 50.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS385 (+670% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost