Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-28 13:02:48 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -0.1% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (2 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE — Strong divergence — structural signals broadly disagree with price

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	DIX 0.451 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.04 balanced
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	GEX +6.7B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Breadth 56% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	Copper/Gold -8.0% growth collapse · real yield 2.34% restrictive
Correlations	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	SPY/VIX -0.21 extreme, SPY/DXY -0.16 normal, SPY/TNX -0.45 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.57 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 14.7 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 144 firm · VVIX/VIX 6.00 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Stagflation score 22 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	USD/JPY 5d +0.7% stable, MOVE 70 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	HY OAS 2.63% benign, NFCI -0.566 loose

Divergence read: Strong divergence — gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline — reversal risk if structure holds.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 76/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.451; GEX positive at 6.7B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads tightening (risk appetite improving). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.7 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $768.94 | 50 SMA $753.39 | 200 SMA $709.41 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $769.18
QQQ: $715.63 | 50 SMA $712.19 | 200 SMA $654.71 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $704.62
IWM: $296.07 | 50 SMA $297.20 | 200 SMA $271.05 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $300.82
VIX: 14.65 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.724%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$768.94	47.40	40.2	$769.18	Neutral	1.07
QQQ	$715.63	48.49	48.0	$704.62	Neutral	0.97
IWM	$296.07	46.33	20.8	$300.82	Bearish	8.77

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	14.65	47.71	33.7	$11.06	Neutral	1.05
TNX	47.24	51.28	44.8	-	-	-
GLD	$410.51	68.12	32.2	$402.13	Bearish	5.62
DXY	99.64	46.82	28.6	-	-	-
SLV	$60.47	66.95	10.4	$44.00	Neutral	0.72

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.451
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.72B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.63% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.98%
2s10s Spread: 0.47% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 55.6%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.9%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
Mag 7 Concentration: 32.2%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.7%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Energy	94.7%	0/0
Health Care	77.8%	0/0
Consumer Staples	72.7%	0/0
Communication Services	68.4%	0/0
Materials	66.7%	0/0
Financials	66.2%	0/0
Technology	53.8%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	44.1%	0/0
Industrials	38.8%	0/0
Real Estate	30.8%	0/0
Utilities	16.7%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $83.50 (5d: -1.8%)
Brent Crude: $88.30 | Spread: $4.80
RBOB Gasoline: $3.0700/gal
Heating Oil: $4.2500/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $61.96/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $62.58
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.31

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.21	extreme
SPY / DXY	-0.163	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.452	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.572	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.86
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 2,940,944.0
0DTE Put Volume: 3,064,947.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.04 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $461.7B
Gamma Call Wall: $772 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $768.94)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -10,560 contracts (Z +1.84, as of 2026-08-18)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.5% (as of 2026-08-26)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.72%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.00 (Normal)
DXY: 99.64
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.31% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.33%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.35%
Stagflation Risk Score: 22/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6730.9B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $950.7B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.5B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,780B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,892B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,042B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,714B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $78,191 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] Leading indicator divergence: 3/5 leading signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend — historically precedes repricing within 3-5 days.
[WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 6/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend — structural repricing risk elevated.
[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $61.96/bbl (vs 20d avg 57.35, +2.2σ), floor $35.00/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.451, GEX +6.7B, HY OAS 2.63%, breadth 56%.
[WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -8.0% — growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
[WARNING] SKEW at 144 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[WARNING] SPY (768.94) dropped below ZGL (769.18) — expect amplified downside moves.

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.38%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.9% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑2.3% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.61 (↓6.2% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.2% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.34 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓7.1% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

No new articles found since last report.

Iran War News

No new Iran International updates since last report.

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 181 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 5 of 60 normal daily — 8.3% of normal
Throughput: 8.3% of normal (0.8M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 319
Oil Prices: Brent $88.24 (-4.82%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 50.0x normal
Tanker Rates: WS450 (+800% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $1.8 billion/day economic cost