Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-28 11:30:19 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.7% (3d) | Alignment: 75% (6 aligned, 2 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.451 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.96 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +6.7B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 56% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | Copper/Gold -9.3% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.34% restrictive |
| Correlations | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.23 extreme, SPY/DXY -0.07 normal, SPY/TNX -0.41 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.58 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 14.2 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 144 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 6.08 dealer fear |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 22 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.5% stable, MOVE 70 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.67% benign, NFCI -0.566 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally β gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (75% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 81/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.451; GEX positive at 6.7B (vol-suppressing); breadth rising to 56% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $774.92 | 50 SMA $753.39 | 200 SMA $709.41 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $769.03
- QQQ: $723.35 | 50 SMA $712.19 | 200 SMA $654.71 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $719.07
- IWM: $298.26 | 50 SMA $297.20 | 200 SMA $271.05 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $300.89
- VIX: 14.16 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.702%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $774.92 | 47.40 | 40.2 | $769.03 | Bearish | 0.43 |
| QQQ | $723.35 | 48.49 | 48.0 | $719.07 | Bearish | 0.42 |
| IWM | $298.26 | 46.33 | 20.8 | $300.89 | Bearish | 4.07 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 14.16 | 47.71 | 33.7 | $11.06 | Neutral | 1.09 |
| TNX | 47.02 βΌ | 51.28 | 44.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $418.50 | 68.12 | 32.2 | $411.99 | Neutral | 1.29 |
| DXY | 99.51 | 43.86 | 24.9 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $62.59 | 66.95 | 10.4 | $57.81 | Bearish | 0.30 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.451
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.72B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.67% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.47% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 56.5%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 72.3%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 492
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.1%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.6%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 94.7% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 79.6% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 75.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 69.7% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 68.4% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 61.2% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 55.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 42.4% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 40.9% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 30.8% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 16.7% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $83.21 (5d: -2.1%)
- Brent Crude: $88.31 | Spread: $5.10
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0300/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.2400/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $60.99/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $62.49
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.32
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.225 | extreme |
| SPY / DXY | -0.072 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.407 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.579 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.86
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 1,721,280.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 1,655,548.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.96 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $261.7B
- Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $766 (Spot: $774.92)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -10,560 contracts (Z +1.84, as of 2026-08-18)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.5% (as of 2026-08-26)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.70%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.97 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.51
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.31% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.33%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.35%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 22/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6730.9B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $950.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.5B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,780B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,892B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,042B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,714B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $79,298 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $60.99/bbl (vs 20d avg 57.35, +1.8Ο), floor $35.00/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] VVIX/VIX ratio at 6.1 β vol-of-vol outpacing VIX, uncertainty about uncertainty rising.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.451, GEX +6.7B, HY OAS 2.67%, breadth 56%.
- [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -9.3% β growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 144 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] Screener: 5 fresh PRIMED high-conviction name(s) for 2026-08-28 β FTNT (conviction 73/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=4760)); PANW (conviction 72/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 50% (n=8800)); ILMN (conviction 69/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=4760)); AOS (conviction 67/100, range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=4760)); NOV (conviction 61/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 50% (n=8800)). Calibrated setups only; decision-support, not advice.
- [INFO] Screener: NOV β promotion-ready (87d on list, HIGH conviction 61/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 50% (n=8800)).
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.39%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β17.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β2.3% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.61 (β6.2% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.34 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β7.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (4):
[1] Forecasting the upcoming week: Busy week with focus on the US labour market URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/forecasting-the-upcoming-week-busy-week-with-focus-on-the-us-labour-market-202608281523 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 15:23:03 GMT
[2] The Canadian Dollar falls on the best quarter since 2023 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/the-canadian-dollar-falls-on-the-best-quarter-since-2023-202608281521 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 15:21:51 GMT
[3] Dogecoin Price Forecast: DOGE pullback extends after August rally to three-month high URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/dogecoin-price-forecast-doge-pullback-extends-after-august-rally-to-three-month-high-202608281518 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 15:18:13 GMT
[4] Gold slides as Warsh hawkish tilt lifts US Dollar and US yields URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-slides-as-warsh-hawkish-tilt-lifts-us-dollar-and-us-yields-202608281517 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 15:17:46 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Bessent says US taking first step against Banque Misr UAE over Iran ties Time: 2026-08-28T15:13:57.558Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 181 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 3 of 60 normal daily β 5.0% of normal
- Throughput: 5.0% of normal (0.5M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $88.24 (-4.82%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 56.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS128 (+156% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.8 billion/day economic cost