Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-28 10:06:43 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.2% (3d) | Alignment: 75% (6 aligned, 2 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	DIX 0.451 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.95 balanced
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +6.7B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 56% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Copper/Gold -9.3% growth collapse · real yield 2.34% restrictive
Correlations	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	SPY/VIX -0.21 extreme, SPY/DXY -0.14 normal, SPY/TNX -0.46 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.58 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 14.6 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 144 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.93 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 22 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d +0.5% stable, MOVE 70 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.67% benign, NFCI -0.566 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally — gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (75% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 81/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.451; GEX positive at 6.7B (vol-suppressing); breadth rising to 56% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.6 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $771.07 | 50 SMA $753.39 | 200 SMA $709.41 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $769.11
QQQ: $718.81 | 50 SMA $712.19 | 200 SMA $654.71 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $712.46
IWM: $298.26 | 50 SMA $297.20 | 200 SMA $271.05 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $300.88
VIX: 14.61 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.686%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$771.07	47.40	40.2	$769.11	Neutral	0.81
QQQ	$718.81	48.49	48.0	$712.46	Neutral	0.72
IWM	$298.26	46.33	20.8	$300.88	Bearish	3.32

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	14.61	47.71	33.7	$11.06	Neutral	1.05
TNX	46.86	51.28	44.8	-	-	-
GLD	$417.70	68.12	32.2	$411.94	Neutral	1.49
DXY	99.21	36.11	20.5	-	-	-
SLV	$62.34	66.95	10.4	$48.00	Bearish	0.32

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.451
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.72B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.67% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.99%
2s10s Spread: 0.47% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 56.5%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 72.3%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 492
Mag 7 Concentration: 32.1%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.6%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Energy	94.7%	0/0
Health Care	79.6%	0/0
Materials	75.0%	0/0
Consumer Staples	69.7%	0/0
Communication Services	68.4%	0/0
Financials	61.2%	0/0
Technology	55.4%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	42.4%	0/0
Industrials	40.9%	0/0
Real Estate	30.8%	0/0
Utilities	16.7%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $82.52 (5d: -3.0%)
Brent Crude: $87.42 | Spread: $4.90
RBOB Gasoline: $3.0000/gal
Heating Oil: $4.1900/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $60.14/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $62.26
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.37

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.208	extreme
SPY / DXY	-0.143	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.462	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.58	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.86
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 444,467.0
0DTE Put Volume: 421,146.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.95 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $66.8B
Gamma Call Wall: $772 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $771.07)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -10,560 contracts (Z +1.84, as of 2026-08-18)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.5% (as of 2026-08-26)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.69%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.99 (Normal)
DXY: 99.21
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.31% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.33%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.35%
Stagflation Risk Score: 22/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6730.9B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $950.7B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.5B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,780B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,892B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,042B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,714B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $79,298 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.451, GEX +6.7B, HY OAS 2.67%, breadth 56%.
[WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -9.3% — growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
[WARNING] SKEW at 144 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~56h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~32h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~32h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=117887B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.39%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.9% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑2.3% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.61 (↓6.2% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.2% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.34 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓7.1% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (1):

[1] Germany: Growth recovery stays moderate - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-growth-recovery-stays-moderate-commerzbank-202608281352 Published: Fri, 28 Aug 2026 13:52:42 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (1):

[1] Iran says progress made on Russian gas transfer deal Time: 2026-08-28T13:52:07.479Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 181 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 12 of 60 normal daily — 20.0% of normal
Throughput: 20.0% of normal (2.1M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 185
Oil Prices: Brent $88.24 (-4.82%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 50.0x normal
Tanker Rates: WS476 (+852% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost