Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-27 11:01:34 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.6% (3d) | Alignment: 78% (7 aligned, 2 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	DIX 0.457 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.83 call-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +5.8B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 56% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Copper/Gold -8.3% growth collapse · real yield 2.32% restrictive
Correlations	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	SPY/VIX -0.19 extreme, SPY/DXY -0.03 normal, SPY/TNX -0.54 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.68 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 14.5 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 143 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.72 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 21 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d +0.3% stable, MOVE 69 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.70% benign, NFCI -0.566 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally — dark pool, gamma, and breadth align with SPY's uptrend (78% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 80/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.457; GEX positive at 5.8B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 56% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.5 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $770.48 | 50 SMA $752.97 | 200 SMA $708.91 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $765.98
QQQ: $718.92 | 50 SMA $712.36 | 200 SMA $654.15 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $709.44
IWM: $299.34 | 50 SMA $297.04 | 200 SMA $270.76 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $300.32
VIX: 14.48 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.653%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$770.48	46.99	50.5	$765.98	Neutral	0.60
QQQ	$718.92	47.37	52.9	$709.44	Bearish	0.37
IWM	$299.34	51.30	29.9	$300.32	Bearish	1.68

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	14.48	50.37	43.4	$11.06	Neutral	1.09
TNX	46.53	49.36	45.2	-	-	-
GLD	$421.13	71.35	32.2	$402.05	Neutral	0.53
DXY	99.15	40.40	36.0	-	-	-
SLV	$62.08	67.92	10.3	$48.00	Bearish	0.30

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.457
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.81B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.70% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 1.00%
2s10s Spread: 0.47% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 56.4%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.3%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 489
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.7%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Energy	100.0%	0/0
Health Care	77.8%	0/0
Communication Services	73.7%	0/0
Materials	70.8%	0/0
Consumer Staples	66.7%	0/0
Financials	59.7%	0/0
Technology	55.4%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	44.6%	0/0
Industrials	43.1%	0/0
Real Estate	38.5%	0/0
Utilities	13.3%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $82.30 (5d: -5.5%)
Brent Crude: $87.22 | Spread: $4.92
RBOB Gasoline: $2.9800/gal
Heating Oil: $4.0900/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $58.40/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $61.62
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.54

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.186	extreme
SPY / DXY	-0.033	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.537	stretched
SPY / Oil	-0.676	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.44
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 1,156,486.0
0DTE Put Volume: 961,155.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.83 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $163.2B
Gamma Call Wall: $770 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $770.48)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) · below 20d

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -10,560 contracts (Z +1.84, as of 2026-08-18)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.5% (as of 2026-08-26)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.65%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.97 (Normal)
DXY: 99.15
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.31% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.32%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
Stagflation Risk Score: 21/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6745.7B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $953.6B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.7B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,791B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,894B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,044B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,729B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $79,192 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.457, GEX +5.8B, HY OAS 2.70%, breadth 56%.
[WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -8.3% — growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
[WARNING] SKEW at 143 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[INFO] Screener: 3 fresh PRIMED high-conviction name(s) for 2026-08-27 — WDAY (conviction 68/100, post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pair_divergence hit-rate 46% (n=697)); TPR (conviction 64/100, range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=4655)); ELV (conviction 64/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 50% (n=8608)). Calibrated setups only; decision-support, not advice.
[INFO] Screener: ELV — new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 64/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 50% (n=8608)). Worth a look.
[INFO] Screener: TPR — new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 64/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=4655)). Worth a look.
[INFO] Screener: EL — promotion-ready (8d on list, HIGH conviction 68/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 56% @10d (n=215)).
[INFO] Screener: WDAY — new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 68/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pair_divergence hit-rate 46% (n=697)). Worth a look.

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.36%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.9% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑2.3% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.61 (↓6.2% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.2% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.34 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓7.1% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

No new articles found since last report.

Iran War News

No new Iran International updates since last report.

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 180 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 12 of 60 normal daily — 12.5% of normal
Throughput: 12.5% of normal (1.3M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 145
Oil Prices: Brent $88.24 (-4.82%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 56.7x normal
Tanker Rates: WS475 (+850% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost