Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-26 10:46:09 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.1% (3d) | Alignment: 75% (6 aligned, 2 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	DIX 0.469 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.07 balanced
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +5.6B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 59% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Copper/Gold -6.5% growth collapse · real yield 2.38% restrictive
Correlations	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	SPY/VIX -0.20 extreme, SPY/DXY -0.09 normal, SPY/TNX -0.50 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.68 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 15.5 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 143 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.56 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 21 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d +0.7% stable, MOVE 72 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.69% benign, NFCI -0.566 loose

Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally — gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (75% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 78/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.469; GEX positive at 5.6B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 59% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.5 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $765.14 | 50 SMA $752.75 | 200 SMA $708.43 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $765.92
QQQ: $709.26 | 50 SMA $713.01 | 200 SMA $653.65 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $709.3
IWM: $298.55 | 50 SMA $296.96 | 200 SMA $270.46 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $300.31
VIX: 15.49 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.658%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$765.14	45.41	50.4	$765.92	Neutral	1.48
QQQ	$709.26	44.89	54.4	$709.30	Neutral	0.87
IWM	$298.55	49.02	29.8	$300.31	Bearish	1.96

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.49	47.88	43.5	$11.06	Neutral	0.93
TNX	46.58	52.21	46.8	-	-	-
GLD	$423.86	78.51	31.8	$401.10	Bearish	0.42
DXY	99.19	35.46	42.4	-	-	-
SLV	$61.78	70.15	11.6	$49.12	Bearish	0.41

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.469
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.62B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.69% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 1.00%
2s10s Spread: 0.47% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 59.2%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 72.5%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.5%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.0%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Health Care	87.0%	0/0
Energy	84.2%	0/0
Communication Services	78.9%	0/0
Consumer Staples	72.7%	0/0
Financials	67.6%	0/0
Materials	66.7%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	55.9%	0/0
Real Estate	50.0%	0/0
Technology	49.2%	0/0
Industrials	40.3%	0/0
Utilities	13.3%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $81.71 (5d: -7.0%)
Brent Crude: $86.68 | Spread: $4.97
RBOB Gasoline: $2.9600/gal
Heating Oil: $4.1400/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $59.13/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $62.56
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.45

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.201	extreme
SPY / DXY	-0.087	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.496	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.683	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 71.92
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 639,778.0
0DTE Put Volume: 684,836.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.07 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $101.4B
Gamma Call Wall: $770 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $765.14)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -10,560 contracts (Z +1.84, as of 2026-08-18)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -4.4% (as of 2026-08-19)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.66%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.96 (Normal)
DXY: 99.19
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.31% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.32%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
Stagflation Risk Score: 21/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6745.7B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $953.6B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,792B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,894B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,044B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,729B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $78,400 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.469, GEX +5.6B, HY OAS 2.69%, breadth 59%.
[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -6.5% — growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
[WARNING] SKEW at 143 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[INFO] Screener: 2 fresh PRIMED high-conviction name(s) for 2026-08-26 — SCHW (conviction 85/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=4598)); CELH (conviction 60/100, capitulation, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=4598)). Calibrated setups only; decision-support, not advice.
[INFO] Screener: SWK — promotion-ready (7d on list, HIGH conviction 62/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 47% (n=2436)).
[INFO] Screener: SCHW — new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 85/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=4598)). Worth a look.
[INFO] Screener: CELH — promotion-ready (68d on list, HIGH conviction 60/100, regime capitulation, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=4598)).

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.35%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 32486.066 | Prev: 31865.721

Earnings:

NVDA: EPS Est. $2.09 (↑0.6% vs 30d)

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.9% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑2.3% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.76 (↓4.1% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.2% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓6.8% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (8):

[1] Canadian Dollar falls despite Oil gains as trade tensions take center stage URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-falls-despite-oil-gains-as-trade-tensions-take-center-stage-202608261438 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 14:38:08 GMT

[2] United States EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change climbed from previous -0.537M to 0.027M in August 21 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-eia-heating-oil-stocks-change-climbed-from-previous-0537m-to-0027m-in-august-21-202608261432 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 14:32:07 GMT

[3] United States EIA Distillate Stocks Change down to -2.228M in August 21 from previous -1.53M URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-eia-distillate-stocks-change-down-to-2228m-in-august-21-from-previous-153m-202608261431 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 14:31:54 GMT

[4] United States EIA Gasoline Stocks Change fell from previous 0.688M to -2.536M in August 21 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-eia-gasoline-stocks-change-fell-from-previous-0688m-to-2536m-in-august-21-202608261431 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 14:31:31 GMT

[5] United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change came in at 0.095M, below expectations (1.9M) in August 21 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-eia-crude-oil-stocks-change-came-in-at-0095m-below-expectations-19m-in-august-21-202608261431 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 14:31:13 GMT

[6] Canada: Trade shock and GDP drag - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-trade-shock-and-gdp-drag-td-securities-202608261425 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 14:25:35 GMT

[7] Japanese Yen reverses earlier gains as US Dollar firms after PCE data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-reverses-earlier-gains-as-us-dollar-firms-after-pce-data-202608261418 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 14:18:59 GMT

[8] Running against the wind [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/running-against-the-wind-video-202608261415 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 14:15:17 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (1):

[1] Tehran says Persian media abroad could be military targets Time: 2026-08-26T14:13:53.735Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 179 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 3 of 60 normal daily — 5.0% of normal
Throughput: 5.0% of normal (0.5M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 250
Oil Prices: Brent $95.29 (+3.09%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 66.7x normal
Tanker Rates: WS250 (+400% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $8.5 billion/day economic cost