Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-26 09:02:58 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.1% (3d) | Alignment: 75% (6 aligned, 2 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.469 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.99 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +5.6B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 60% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy FALLING β oil decline, mild equity tailwind |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | Copper/Gold -8.7% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.40% restrictive |
| Correlations | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.20 extreme, SPY/DXY -0.07 normal, SPY/TNX -0.49 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.68 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.7 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 143 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.46 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 21 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.6% stable, MOVE 72 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.69% benign, NFCI -0.566 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals broadly confirm the risk-on rally β gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (75% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 77/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.469; GEX positive at 5.6B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.7 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: ELAN, KHC, PFE
- Shorts: BBY, WTW
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 13% (n=220) | 3d 35% (n=220) | 5d 32% (n=220)
- Screener Board Record: 264 closed (hit rate 48%) Β· 152 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $764.96 | 50 SMA $752.75 | 200 SMA $708.43 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $765.91
- QQQ: $708.00 | 50 SMA $713.01 | 200 SMA $653.65 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $709.31
- IWM: $298.51 | 50 SMA $296.96 | 200 SMA $270.46 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $300.21
- VIX: 15.70 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.656%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $764.96 | 45.41 | 50.4 | $765.91 | Neutral | 1.32 |
| QQQ | $708.00 | 44.89 | 54.4 | $709.31 | Neutral | 0.76 |
| IWM | $298.51 | 49.02 | 29.8 | $300.21 | Neutral | 1.42 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.70 | 47.88 | 43.5 | $11.06 | Neutral | 0.94 |
| TNX | 46.56 | 52.21 | 46.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $423.63 | 78.51 | 31.8 | $409.10 | Bearish | 0.27 |
| DXY | 99.05 | 31.95 | 40.1 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $61.83 | 70.15 | 11.6 | $57.70 | Bearish | 0.31 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.469
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.62B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.69% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.00%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.47% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 59.9%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 72.4%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 491
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 84.2% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 83.3% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 78.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 71.9% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 70.8% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 66.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 60.3% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 49.2% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 41.5% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 16.7% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: FALLING
- WTI Crude: $80.33 (5d: -8.5%)
- Brent Crude: $85.39 | Spread: $5.06
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9100/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.0500/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $57.85/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $62.06
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.23
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.202 | extreme |
| SPY / DXY | -0.071 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.491 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.681 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 71.92
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.99 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $505.2B
- Gamma Call Wall: $770 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $764.96)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -10,560 contracts (Z +1.84, as of 2026-08-18)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -4.4% (as of 2026-08-19)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.66%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.96 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.05
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.32% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.32%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.32%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 21/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6745.7B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $953.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,792B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,912B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,047B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,751B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $78,381 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.469, GEX +5.6B, HY OAS 2.69%, breadth 60%.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -8.7% β growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 143 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] SPY (765.80) dropped below ZGL (765.91) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~54h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~30h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.35%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): β³ Pending
Earnings:
- NVDA: EPS Est. $2.09 (β0.6% vs 30d)
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β17.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β2.3% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.76 (β4.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β6.8% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (16):
[1] Ripple Price Forecast: XRP bulls defend $1.40 amid growing on-chain activity URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ripple-price-forecast-xrp-bulls-defend-140-amid-growing-on-chain-activity-202608261300 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 13:00:00 GMT
[2] Gold slips as sticky US PCE inflation fails to boost Fed rate-hike expectations URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-slips-as-sticky-us-pce-inflation-fails-to-boost-fed-rate-hike-expectations-202608261259 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 12:59:41 GMT
[3] Euro comes under pressure against US Dollar after mixed US PCE data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-comes-under-pressure-against-us-dollar-after-mixed-us-pce-data-202608261257 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 12:57:38 GMT
[4] Canadian Dollar: Trade dispute risks weigh on Canada - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-trade-dispute-risks-weigh-on-canada-bny-202608261247 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 12:47:42 GMT
[5] United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) above forecasts (3.4%) in 2Q: Actual (3.7%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-core-personal-consumption-expenditures-qoq-above-forecasts-34-in-2q-actual-37-202608261238 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 12:38:37 GMT
[6] United States Durable Goods Orders ex Defense climbed from previous 0.3% to 1.3% in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-durable-goods-orders-ex-defense-climbed-from-previous-03-to-13-in-july-202608261238 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 12:38:09 GMT
[7] United States Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ) registered at 5.3% above expectations (5.1%) in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-personal-consumption-expenditures-prices-qoq-registered-at-53-above-expectations-51-in-2q-202608261237 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 12:37:06 GMT
[8] United States Gross Domestic Product Annualized meets expectations (1.5%) in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-gross-domestic-product-annualized-meets-expectations-15-in-2q-202608261236 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 12:36:51 GMT
[9] United States Gross Domestic Product Price Index came in at 6.4%, above forecasts (6.3%) in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-gross-domestic-product-price-index-came-in-at-64-above-forecasts-63-in-2q-202608261236 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 12:36:25 GMT
[10] United States Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation came in at 0.4% below forecasts (0.5%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-durable-goods-orders-ex-transportation-came-in-at-04-below-forecasts-05-in-july-202608261233 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 12:33:39 GMT
[11] United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) above forecasts (0.1%) in July: Actual (0.2%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-mom-above-forecasts-01-in-july-actual-02-202608261232 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 12:32:21 GMT
[12] United States Personal Spending in line with expectations (0.2%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-personal-spending-in-line-with-expectations-02-in-july-202608261232 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 12:32:00 GMT
[13] United States Personal Income (MoM) above expectations (0.3%) in July: Actual (0.4%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-personal-income-mom-above-expectations-03-in-july-actual-04-202608261231 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 12:31:37 GMT
[14] United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) above forecasts (3.6%) in July: Actual (3.7%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-yoy-above-forecasts-36-in-july-actual-37-202608261231 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 12:31:24 GMT
[15] United States Durable Goods Orders above expectations (0.7%) in July: Actual (1.1%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-durable-goods-orders-above-expectations-07-in-july-actual-11-202608261230 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 12:30:44 GMT
[16] United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) in line with expectations (3.3%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-core-personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-yoy-in-line-with-expectations-33-in-july-202608261230 Published: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 12:30:37 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement not yet finalized - Reuters Time: 2026-08-26T13:00:34.666Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 179 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 3 of 60 normal daily β 5.0% of normal
- Throughput: 5.0% of normal (0.5M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 350
- Oil Prices: Brent $95.29 (+3.09%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 56.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS285 (+470% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost