Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-25 20:01:16 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.1% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (2 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.446 moderate, 0DTE PCR 0.99 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +5.5B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 60% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -7.3% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.40% restrictive |
| Correlations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.42 stretched, SPY/DXY -0.29 normal, SPY/TNX -0.34 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.66 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.4 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 143 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.54 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 21 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d -0.2% stable, MOVE 72 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.69% benign, NFCI -0.559 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 80/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 80 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.446) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.446; GEX positive at 5.5B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 60% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.4 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $765.89 | 50 SMA $752.26 | 200 SMA $707.99 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $765.38
- QQQ: $711.30 | 50 SMA $713.23 | 200 SMA $653.22 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $706.85
- IWM: $299.21 | 50 SMA $296.83 | 200 SMA $270.19 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $298.26
- VIX: 15.45 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.639%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $765.89 | 40.50 | 50.4 | $765.38 | Neutral | 1.00 |
| QQQ | $711.30 | 36.83 | 54.4 | $706.85 | Neutral | 0.71 |
| IWM | $299.21 | 43.35 | 30.2 | $298.26 | Neutral | 1.37 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.45 | 46.30 | 43.5 | $11.06 | Neutral | 1.11 |
| TNX | 46.39 | 58.69 | 41.9 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $428.07 | 82.23 | 31.7 | $407.00 | Bearish | 0.12 |
| DXY | 98.91 | 35.61 | 38.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $62.08 | 73.72 | 11.5 | $57.66 | Bearish | 0.29 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.446
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.47B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.69% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.00%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 59.9%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 72.4%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 491
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 84.2% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 83.3% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 78.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 71.9% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 70.8% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 66.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 60.3% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 49.2% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 41.5% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 16.7% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $81.11 (5d: -5.5%)
- Brent Crude: $85.86 | Spread: $4.75
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.8900/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.0600/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.65/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $62.06
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.23
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.424 | stretched |
| SPY / DXY | -0.295 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.337 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.655 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 71.92
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,314,209.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,281,899.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 0.99 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $505.2B
- Gamma Call Wall: $766 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $765.89)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -10,560 contracts (Z +1.84, as of 2026-08-18)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -4.4% (as of 2026-08-19)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.64%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.93 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.91
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.32% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.32%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.32%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 21/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6745.7B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $953.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,792B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,912B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,047B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,751B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $78,552 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -7.3% β growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 143 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [INFO] Screener: MLI β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 69/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=4598)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: FDS β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 66/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=4598)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: COO β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 73/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=4598)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: GPN β promotion-ready (33d on list, HIGH conviction 62/100, regime range_noise, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 50% (n=8457)).
- [INFO] SPY (765.92) reclaimed ZGL (765.46) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] SPY (765.36) dropped below ZGL (765.48) β expect amplified downside moves.
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.35%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 23218 | Prev: 23115.2
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.09 (β0.6% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β17.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β2.3% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.76 (β4.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β6.8% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (13):
[1] Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH rally calms after reclaiming $2,300 on-chain cost basis URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ethereum-price-forecast-eth-rally-calms-after-reclaiming-2-300-on-chain-cost-basis-202608252354 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 23:54:46 GMT
[2] Iran and Oman push talks for 'interim' reopening of Hormuz -- Bloomberg URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/iran-and-oman-push-talks-for-interim-reopening-of-hormuz-202608252343 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 23:43:09 GMT
[3] Gold advances above $4,650 on US Dollar weakness, Treasury bond buyback plans URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-advances-above-4-650-on-us-dollar-weakness-treasury-bond-buyback-plans-202608252327 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 23:27:51 GMT
[4] Australian Dollar rises after RBA hawkish minutes, inflation data eyed URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-rises-after-rba-hawkish-minutes-inflation-data-eyed-202608252304 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 23:04:10 GMT
[5] Tokyo bought the Japanese Yen a range, not a trend URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/tokyo-bought-the-japanese-yen-a-range-not-a-trend-202608252302 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 23:02:06 GMT
[6] Pound Sterling's six-month high has no British test this week URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterlings-six-month-high-has-no-british-test-this-week-202608252301 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 23:01:27 GMT
[7] America's selfβinflicted trade wound URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/americas-self-inflicted-trade-wound-202608252253 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 22:53:38 GMT
[8] Singapore Dollar: Consolidation risk after recent gains against US Dollar - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/singapore-dollar-consolidation-risk-after-recent-gains-against-us-dollar-ocbc-202608252237 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 22:37:00 GMT
[9] Australia CPI expected to show inflation easing in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-cpi-expected-to-show-inflation-easing-in-july-202608252230 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 22:30:00 GMT
[10] South Korea BOK Manufacturing BSI down to 81 in September from previous 82 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korea-bok-manufacturing-bsi-down-to-81-in-september-from-previous-82-202608252224 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 22:24:13 GMT
[11] Silver supply ordered today arrives in 2032 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/silver-supply-ordered-today-arrives-in-2032-202608252222 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 22:22:16 GMT
[12] GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Bulls hold 217.00 after trendline break URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-jpy-price-forecast-bulls-hold-21700-after-trendline-break-202608252214 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 22:14:08 GMT
[13] Mexican Peso holds below 16.95 as traders eye US data, Iran shift URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexican-peso-holds-below-1695-as-traders-eye-us-data-iran-shift-202608252202 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 22:02:03 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Iran parliament speaker ridicules US 'Economic D-Day' campaign Time: 2026-08-25T22:43:52.565Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 178 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 1 of 60 normal daily β 1.7% of normal
- Throughput: 1.5% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 401
- Oil Prices: Brent $95.29 (+3.09%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 66.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS475 (+850% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost