Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-25 10:50:22 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 33% (3 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE — Strong divergence — structural signals broadly disagree with price

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	DIX 0.446 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.12 put-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	GEX +5.5B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Breadth 60% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Energy STABLE — no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	Copper/Gold -7.4% growth collapse · real yield 2.40% restrictive
Correlations	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	SPY/VIX -0.43 stretched, SPY/DXY -0.30 normal, SPY/TNX -0.33 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.67 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 15.8 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 146 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.53 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Stagflation score 21 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	USD/JPY 5d -0.2% stable, MOVE 74 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	HY OAS 2.70% benign, NFCI -0.559 loose

Divergence read: Strong divergence — gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 9 signals refuse to confirm the decline — reversal risk if structure holds.

Market Status

Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 78/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 78 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.446) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.446; GEX positive at 5.5B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 60% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.8 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $764.26 | 50 SMA $752.26 | 200 SMA $707.99 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $765.79
QQQ: $709.33 | 50 SMA $713.23 | 200 SMA $653.22 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $706.65
IWM: $298.77 | 50 SMA $296.83 | 200 SMA $270.19 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $300.63
VIX: 15.79 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.649%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$764.26	40.50	50.4	$765.79	Neutral	1.46
QQQ	$709.33	36.83	54.4	$706.65	Neutral	0.82
IWM	$298.77	43.35	30.2	$300.63	Bearish	1.80

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.79	46.30	43.5	$11.05	Neutral	1.00
TNX	46.49	58.69	41.9	-	-	-
GLD	$425.28	82.23	31.7	$401.04	Bearish	0.18
DXY	98.95	36.19	38.6	-	-	-
SLV	$61.59	73.72	11.5	$49.07	Bearish	0.33

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.446
DIX Signal: Neutral
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.47B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.70% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 1.00%
2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 60.0%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 73.5%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 487
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.5%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Energy	89.5%	0/0
Health Care	83.3%	0/0
Communication Services	78.9%	0/0
Consumer Staples	75.8%	0/0
Materials	66.7%	0/0
Financials	64.7%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	60.3%	0/0
Real Estate	58.3%	0/0
Technology	50.8%	0/0
Industrials	40.9%	0/0
Utilities	14.3%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: STABLE
WTI Crude: $82.73 (5d: -3.6%)
Brent Crude: $88.18 | Spread: $5.45
RBOB Gasoline: $2.9500/gal
Heating Oil: $4.1700/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $58.25/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $62.50
UNG (Nat Gas): $9.96

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.427	stretched
SPY / DXY	-0.297	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.326	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.666	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.98
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 923,998.0
0DTE Put Volume: 1,035,390.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.12 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $149.8B
Gamma Call Wall: $767 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $764.26)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) · below 20d

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -10,560 contracts (Z +1.84, as of 2026-08-18)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -4.4% (as of 2026-08-19)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.65%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.94 (Normal)
DXY: 98.95
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.32% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.32%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.32%
Stagflation Risk Score: 21/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6745.7B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $953.6B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,792B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,916B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,050B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,757B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $78,727 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -7.4% — growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
[WARNING] SKEW at 146 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[INFO] Screener: 3 fresh PRIMED high-conviction name(s) for 2026-08-25 — RLI (conviction 74/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=4530)); CACI (conviction 69/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=4530)); PRU (conviction 69/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=4530)). Calibrated setups only; decision-support, not advice.
[INFO] Screener: 680 name(s) exited the program (1094 exit event(s)) in the trailing 7d (2026-08-19 → 2026-08-25). Reasons: decayed 917, s2_evicted 148, tier_drop 28, horizon_elapsed 1. 736 never ripened, 0 unclassified.
[INFO] Screener: RLI — promotion-ready (84d on list, HIGH conviction 74/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=4530)).
[INFO] Screener: RLI — new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 74/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=4530)). Worth a look.
[INFO] Screener: PRU — promotion-ready (84d on list, HIGH conviction 69/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=4530)).
[INFO] Screener: PRU — new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 69/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=4530)). Worth a look.

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.35%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 23155.2000000000 | Prev: 23055.6000000000

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.09 (↑0.6% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.9% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑2.3% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.76 (↓4.1% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.2% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓6.8% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (5):

[1] Mexican Peso: Carry appeal faces crowding risk - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexican-peso-carry-appeal-faces-crowding-risk-mufg-202608251442 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 14:42:50 GMT

[2] Japanese Yen: BoJ September risk looms in flat range against US Dollar - Scotiabank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-boj-september-risk-looms-in-flat-range-against-us-dollar-scotiabank-202608251428 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 14:28:22 GMT

[3] ZEC Price Forecast: ZEC eyes $900 breakout as Grayscale launches first US-listed Zcash ETF URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/zec-price-forecast-zec-eyes-900-breakout-as-grayscale-launches-first-us-listed-zcash-etf-202608251423 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 14:23:58 GMT

[4] US Dollar: Credibility risks for USD - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-credibility-risks-for-usd-td-securities-202608251418 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 14:18:13 GMT

[5] Silver retreats ahead of US PCE data, but underlying support persists URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-retreats-ahead-of-us-pce-data-but-underlying-support-persists-202608251418 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 14:18:01 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (2):

[1] Pezeshkian says US seeks to exploit economic discontent in Iran Time: 2026-08-25T14:33:42.849Z

[2] China says trade with Iran should not be disrupted by US sanctions Time: 2026-08-25T14:08:46.726Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 178 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 1 of 60 normal daily — 1.7% of normal
Throughput: 0.7% of normal (0.1M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 401
Oil Prices: Brent $95.29 (+3.09%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 66.7x normal
Tanker Rates: WS385 (+670% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost