Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-25 09:15:56 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.0% (3d) | Alignment: 67% (6 aligned, 3 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | DIX 0.446 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.26 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +5.5B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 61% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | Copper/Gold -8.5% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.40% restrictive |
| Correlations | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.42 stretched, SPY/DXY -0.29 normal, SPY/TNX -0.35 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.71 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.8 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 146 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.60 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 21 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d -0.2% stable, MOVE 74 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.70% benign, NFCI -0.559 loose |
Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally β gamma, breadth, and energy align with SPY's uptrend (67% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 82/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 82 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.446) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.446; GEX positive at 5.5B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.8 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: ELAN, KHC, PFE
- Shorts: IBKR, WTW
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 13% (n=225) | 3d 35% (n=225) | 5d 32% (n=225)
- Screener Board Record: 254 closed (hit rate 49%) Β· 152 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $766.49 | 50 SMA $752.26 | 200 SMA $707.99 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $765.85
- QQQ: $712.02 | 50 SMA $713.23 | 200 SMA $653.22 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $706.72
- IWM: $299.40 | 50 SMA $296.83 | 200 SMA $270.19 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $300.71
- VIX: 15.80 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.649%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $766.49 | 40.50 | 50.4 | $765.85 | Bearish | 1.64 |
| QQQ | $712.02 | 36.83 | 54.4 | $706.72 | Neutral | 1.11 |
| IWM | $299.40 | 43.35 | 30.2 | $300.71 | Bearish | 2.23 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.80 | 46.30 | 43.5 | $11.06 | Neutral | 0.86 |
| TNX | 46.49 | 58.69 | 41.9 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $424.03 | 82.23 | 31.7 | $403.91 | Bearish | 0.16 |
| DXY | 98.98 | 36.59 | 38.8 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $61.07 | 73.72 | 11.5 | $55.48 | Bearish | 0.28 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.446
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.47B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.70% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.00%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 61.0%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 74.5%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 89.5% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 87.0% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 78.9% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 75.8% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 67.6% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 66.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 61.0% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 57.7% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 49.2% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 41.8% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 16.7% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $82.11 (5d: -4.3%)
- Brent Crude: $87.67 | Spread: $5.56
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9400/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.1500/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $58.31/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $63.11
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.15
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.425 | stretched |
| SPY / DXY | -0.293 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.353 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.707 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.98
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.26 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $538.1B
- Gamma Call Wall: $768 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $766.49)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -10,560 contracts (Z +1.84, as of 2026-08-18)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -4.4% (as of 2026-08-19)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.65%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.94 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.98
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.32% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.32%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.32%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 21/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6745.7B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $953.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,792B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,916B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,050B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,757B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $78,772 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -8.5% β growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 146 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~268h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~100h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~28h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.33%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 23155.2000000000 | Prev: 23055.6000000000
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.09 (β0.6% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β17.9% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β2.3% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (β4.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β6.8% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (2):
[1] US Dollar: Bond market supports cautious consolidation - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-bond-market-supports-cautious-consolidation-ing-202608251314 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 13:14:32 GMT
[2] Bessent is getting away with the threats against Iran in Operation Outcast URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/bessent-is-getting-away-with-the-threats-against-iran-in-operation-outcast-202608251303 Published: Tue, 25 Aug 2026 13:03:14 GMT
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 178 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 1 of 60 normal daily β 1.7% of normal
- Throughput: 1.0% of normal (0.1M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 372
- Oil Prices: Brent $95.29 (+3.09%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 58.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS450 (+800% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost