Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-24 15:51:06 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.1% (3d) | Alignment: 71% (5 aligned, 2 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	DIX 0.463 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.25 put-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +4.1B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 60% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Copper/Gold -9.7% growth collapse · real yield 2.35% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.56 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.12 normal, SPY/TNX -0.35 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.77 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 15.9 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 144 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.61 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 23 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d -0.1% stable, MOVE 73 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.70% benign, NFCI -0.559 loose

Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, breadth, and inflation leaning bullish, but dark pool and growth expectations haven't signed on yet — rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 78/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.463; GEX positive at 4.1B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads tightening (risk appetite improving). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.9 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Regime: low — Calm regime — balanced board
Longs: ELAN, KHC, PFE
Shorts: IBKR, WTW

Track Record

AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 13% (n=228) | 3d 36% (n=228) | 5d 32% (n=228)
Screener Board Record: 244 closed (hit rate 48%) · 157 open

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $763.52 | 50 SMA $751.75 | 200 SMA $707.55 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $765.91
QQQ: $706.89 | 50 SMA $713.44 | 200 SMA $652.78 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $710.94
IWM: $297.99 | 50 SMA $296.68 | 200 SMA $269.91 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $273.52
VIX: 15.86 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.704%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$763.52	57.63	49.7	$765.91	Bearish	2.40
QQQ	$706.89	58.03	54.7	$710.94	Bearish	2.48
IWM	$297.99	55.91	29.1	$273.52	Bearish	2.50

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.86	45.81	41.9	$11.05	Neutral	0.94
TNX	47.04	55.56	40.9	-	-	-
GLD	$426.56	82.04	31.9	$410.50	Bearish	0.08
DXY	99.02	34.78	39.6	-	-	-
SLV	$62.08	77.76	11.2	$57.67	Bearish	0.27

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.463
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.09B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.70% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 1.00%
2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Healthy slope)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 60.4%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 74.5%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.5%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Energy	89.5%	0/0
Health Care	85.2%	0/0
Communication Services	78.9%	0/0
Consumer Staples	78.8%	0/0
Materials	66.7%	0/0
Financials	66.2%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	61.0%	0/0
Real Estate	57.7%	0/0
Technology	49.2%	0/0
Industrials	40.3%	0/0
Utilities	13.3%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: ELEVATED
WTI Crude: $85.08 (5d: +0.2%)
Brent Crude: $92.12 | Spread: $7.04
RBOB Gasoline: $2.9700/gal
Heating Oil: $4.1800/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.60/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $63.11
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.15

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.559	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.118	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.352	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.769	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.40
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 3,043,494.0
0DTE Put Volume: 3,808,571.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.25 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $523.1B
Gamma Call Wall: $770 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $763.52)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -10,560 contracts (Z +1.84, as of 2026-08-18)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -4.4% (as of 2026-08-19)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.70%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.00 (Normal)
DXY: 99.02
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.34% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.34%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.34%
Stagflation Risk Score: 23/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6745.7B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $953.6B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,792B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,926B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,056B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,773B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $78,850 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.463, GEX +4.1B, HY OAS 2.70%, breadth 60%.
[WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -9.7% — growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
[WARNING] SKEW at 144 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[WARNING] SPY (762.90) dropped below ZGL (766.20) — expect amplified downside moves.
[INFO] SPY (763.28) reclaimed ZGL (755.96) — volatility dampening resumes.
[INFO] Screener: 1 fresh PRIMED high-conviction name(s) for 2026-08-24 — SON (conviction 71/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 50% (n=7895)). Calibrated setups only; decision-support, not advice.
[INFO] Screener: SON — promotion-ready (83d on list, HIGH conviction 71/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 50% (n=7895)).

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.33%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Industrial Production: 102.9939000000 | Prev: 102.7868000000

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.09 (↑0.6% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.9% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑2.3% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.2% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓6.8% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

No new articles found since last report.

Iran War News

Updates (3):

[1] Trump spoke with Pakistan's army chief amid Iran tensions - CNN Time: 2026-08-24T19:44:15.713Z

[BREAKING] [2] US not ruling out military force in Strait of Hormuz, Hegseth says Time: 2026-08-24T19:36:34.437Z

[3] Netanyahu says Iran tried to assassinate one of his sons Time: 2026-08-24T19:31:54.459Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 177 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 1 of 60 normal daily — 1.7% of normal
Throughput: 1.5% of normal (0.1M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 350
Oil Prices: Brent $95.29 (+3.09%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 40.0x normal
Tanker Rates: WS0 (-100% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost