Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-24 15:30:22 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.2% (3d) | Alignment: 71% (5 aligned, 2 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	DIX 0.463 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.24 put-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +4.1B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 60% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Copper/Gold -9.6% growth collapse · real yield 2.35% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.56 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.12 normal, SPY/TNX -0.35 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.78 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 15.8 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 144 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.61 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 23 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d -0.2% stable, MOVE 73 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.75% moderate, NFCI -0.559 loose

Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, breadth, and inflation leaning bullish, but dark pool and growth expectations haven't signed on yet — rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 76/100 (Favorable) |

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.463; GEX positive at 4.1B (vol-suppressing); breadth rising to 60% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.8 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $764.06 | 50 SMA $751.75 | 200 SMA $707.55 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $766.11
QQQ: $707.76 | 50 SMA $713.44 | 200 SMA $652.78 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $711.09
IWM: $298.13 | 50 SMA $296.68 | 200 SMA $269.91 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $300.82
VIX: 15.78 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.704%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$764.06	57.63	49.7	$766.11	Bearish	2.21
QQQ	$707.76	58.03	54.7	$711.09	Bearish	2.26
IWM	$298.13	55.91	29.1	$300.82	Bearish	2.55

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.78	45.81	41.9	$11.05	Neutral	0.95
TNX	47.04	55.56	40.9	-	-	-
GLD	$425.79	82.04	31.9	$410.49	Bearish	0.09
DXY	99.03	34.85	39.6	-	-	-
SLV	$61.91	77.76	11.2	$57.71	Bearish	0.31

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.463
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.09B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.75% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 1.00%
2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Healthy slope)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 59.8%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 74.3%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.2%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Energy	89.5%	0/0
Health Care	83.3%	0/0
Communication Services	78.9%	0/0
Consumer Staples	78.8%	0/0
Materials	70.8%	0/0
Financials	67.6%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	61.0%	0/0
Technology	50.8%	0/0
Real Estate	46.2%	0/0
Industrials	40.3%	0/0
Utilities	13.3%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: ELEVATED
WTI Crude: $85.22 (5d: +0.3%)
Brent Crude: $92.33 | Spread: $7.11
RBOB Gasoline: $2.9700/gal
Heating Oil: $4.1800/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.46/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $63.12
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.15

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.557	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.115	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.355	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.775	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.40
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 2,934,150.0
0DTE Put Volume: 3,629,415.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.24 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $501.5B
Gamma Call Wall: $770 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $764.06)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -10,560 contracts (Z +1.84, as of 2026-08-18)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -4.4% (as of 2026-08-19)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.70%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.00 (Normal)
DXY: 99.03
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.34% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.34%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.34%
Stagflation Risk Score: 23/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6745.7B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $953.6B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,792B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,926B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,056B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,774B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $79,202 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.463, GEX +4.1B, HY OAS 2.75%, breadth 60%.
[WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -9.6% — growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
[WARNING] SKEW at 144 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[WARNING] SPY (762.90) dropped below ZGL (766.20) — expect amplified downside moves.
[INFO] SPY (763.28) reclaimed ZGL (755.96) — volatility dampening resumes.
[INFO] Screener: 1 fresh PRIMED high-conviction name(s) for 2026-08-24 — SON (conviction 71/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 50% (n=7895)). Calibrated setups only; decision-support, not advice.
[INFO] Screener: SON — promotion-ready (83d on list, HIGH conviction 71/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 50% (n=7895)).

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.34%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Industrial Production: 102.9939000000 | Prev: 102.7868000000

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.09 (↑0.4% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.9% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑2.2% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.2% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓6.8% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

No new articles found since last report.

Iran War News

Updates (2):

[1] Iran's president tells Pakistan's army chief US must change its tone towards Tehran Time: 2026-08-24T19:22:03.716Z

[2] Sanctions to remain main US action against Iran until after midterms - Axios Time: 2026-08-24T19:11:43.133Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 177 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 1 of 60 normal daily — 1.7% of normal
Throughput: 1.5% of normal (0.1M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 350
Oil Prices: Brent $95.29 (+3.09%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 40.0x normal
Tanker Rates: WS0 (-100% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost