Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-24 09:45:09 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -0.0% (3d) | Alignment: 29% (2 aligned, 5 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE — Moderate divergence — several structural signals disagree with price

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	DIX 0.463 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.39 put-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	GEX +4.1B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Breadth 60% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	Copper/Gold -9.5% growth collapse · real yield 2.35% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.56 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.12 normal, SPY/TNX -0.35 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.77 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 16.0 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 144 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.44 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Stagflation score 23 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	USD/JPY 5d -0.1% stable, MOVE 73 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	HY OAS 2.75% moderate, NFCI -0.559 loose

Divergence read: SPY slipping but gamma, breadth, and inflation flash bullish against the risk-on tape — 5 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 74/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 5 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.463; GEX positive at 4.1B (vol-suppressing); breadth rising to 60% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.0 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $762.86 | 50 SMA $751.75 | 200 SMA $707.55 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $766.49
QQQ: $704.83 | 50 SMA $713.44 | 200 SMA $652.78 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $711.13
IWM: $298.50 | 50 SMA $296.68 | 200 SMA $269.91 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $300.72
VIX: 15.96 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.706%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$762.86	57.63	49.7	$766.49	Bearish	2.22
QQQ	$704.83	58.03	54.7	$711.13	Bearish	7.09
IWM	$298.50	55.91	29.1	$300.72	Bearish	2.24

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.96	45.81	41.9	$11.06	Neutral	0.94
TNX	47.06	55.56	40.9	-	-	-
GLD	$427.89	82.04	31.9	$410.50	Bearish	0.08
DXY	98.93	32.73	38.2	-	-	-
SLV	$62.47	77.76	11.2	$57.67	Bearish	0.24

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.463
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.09B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.75% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 1.00%
2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Healthy slope)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 59.8%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 73.6%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 493
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.2%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Energy	89.5%	0/0
Health Care	85.2%	0/0
Communication Services	78.9%	0/0
Consumer Staples	78.8%	0/0
Materials	70.8%	0/0
Financials	64.2%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	62.7%	0/0
Technology	52.3%	0/0
Real Estate	50.0%	0/0
Industrials	38.8%	0/0
Utilities	13.3%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: ELEVATED
WTI Crude: $85.85 (5d: +1.1%)
Brent Crude: $93.48 | Spread: $7.63
RBOB Gasoline: $3.0100/gal
Heating Oil: $4.3000/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $58.63/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $63.60
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.27

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.563	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.115	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.346	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.774	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.40
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 160,468.0
0DTE Put Volume: 223,681.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.39 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $29.3B
Gamma Call Wall: $770 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $762.86)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -10,560 contracts (Z +1.84, as of 2026-08-18)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -4.4% (as of 2026-08-19)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.71%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.99 (Normal)
DXY: 98.93
Growth vs Value: 0.92
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.34% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.34%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.34%
Stagflation Risk Score: 23/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6745.7B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $953.6B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,792B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,926B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,056B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,774B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $78,975 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.463, GEX +4.1B, HY OAS 2.75%, breadth 60%.
[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.774 with energy in ELEVATED — crude shock propagating into equities.
[WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -9.5% — growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
[WARNING] SKEW at 144 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[WARNING] SPY (764.58) dropped below ZGL (766.48) — expect amplified downside moves.
[WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~244h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.
[WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~100h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score — those surfaces are running on stale input.

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.33%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Industrial Production: 102.9939000000 | Prev: 102.7868000000

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.09 (↑0.4% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.9% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑2.2% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.2% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓6.8% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (2):

[1] The win rate vs risk-reward debate has a different answer on funded accounts URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/education/the-win-rate-vs-risk-reward-debate-has-a-different-answer-on-funded-accounts-202608241337 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 13:37:26 GMT

[2] Canada: Tariffs reshape outlook - RBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canada-tariffs-reshape-outlook-rbc-202608241334 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 13:34:51 GMT

Iran War News

No new Iran International updates since last report.

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 177 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 1 of 60 normal daily — 1.7% of normal
Throughput: 3.1% of normal (0.3M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 200
Oil Prices: Brent $95.29 (+3.09%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 66.7x normal
Tanker Rates: WS285 (+470% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.8 billion/day economic cost