Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-24 00:01:14 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.5% (3d) | Alignment: 83% (5 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.463 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.10 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +4.1B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 59% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | Copper/Gold -8.2% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.35% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.55 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.09 normal, SPY/TNX -0.39 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.78 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.1 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 144 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.70 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 23 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d -0.2% stable, MOVE 73 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.75% moderate, NFCI -0.559 loose |
Divergence read: Risk-on regime with gamma, breadth, and inflation leaning bullish, but growth expectations haven't signed on yet β rally is concentrated, watch for broadening.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 81/100 (Favorable) |
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.463; GEX positive at 4.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.1 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $766.40 | 50 SMA $750.94 | 200 SMA $707.13 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $765.98
- QQQ: $713.43 | 50 SMA $713.05 | 200 SMA $652.37 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $713.96
- IWM: $300.08 | 50 SMA $296.32 | 200 SMA $269.64 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $299.04
- VIX: 15.13 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.738%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $766.40 | 62.91 | 55.7 | $765.98 | Bearish | 2.23 |
| QQQ | $713.43 | 62.36 | 58.6 | $713.96 | Bearish | 2.83 |
| IWM | $300.08 | 59.41 | 29.1 | $299.04 | Neutral | 0.54 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.13 | 50.13 | 48.2 | $11.06 | Neutral | 0.95 |
| TNX | 47.38 | 44.95 | 41.5 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $422.26 | 80.08 | 34.2 | $399.26 | Neutral | 1.25 |
| DXY | 98.84 | 28.94 | 37.1 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $62.45 | 76.54 | 13.5 | $57.69 | Bearish | 0.34 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.463
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.09B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.75% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.00%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Healthy slope)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 58.6%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 72.5%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 89.5% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 81.8% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 81.5% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 78.9% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 66.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 61.0% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 60.3% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 50.8% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 43.3% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 38.5% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 13.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $86.64 (5d: +2.5%)
- Brent Crude: $93.87 | Spread: $7.23
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0200/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.3500/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $58.82/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $63.64
- UNG (Nat Gas): $9.99
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.548 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.089 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.387 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.784 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.40
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,187,829.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,495,027.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.10 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $511.7B
- Gamma Call Wall: $772 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $766.40)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -10,560 contracts (Z +1.84, as of 2026-08-18)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -4.4% (as of 2026-08-19)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.74%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.03 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.84
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.34% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.34%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.34%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 23/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6745.7B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $953.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,792B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,926B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,056B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,774B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $76,924 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~244h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~100h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~76h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~76h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: naaim_exposure has printed the same value (79.7) for 18 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is weekly (~5 trading day(s); freeze bar 10). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 29 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: acm_term_premium_10y has printed the same value (0.84) for 5 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: vix_backwardation_depth_pct has printed the same value (0.0) for 92 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_max_pain has printed the same value (735.0) for 38 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.35%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.9939000000 | Prev: 102.7868000000
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.09 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β17.4% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (β4.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.68 (β0.4% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (8):
[1] Crypto Market Overview: Bitcoin holds above $77,000 - PENGU and AAVE eye further gains URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-market-overview-bitcoin-holds-above-77-000-pengu-and-aave-eye-further-gains-202608240324 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 03:24:52 GMT
[2] Gold's glitter is here to stay as eyes turn to US inflation and Fed Chair Warsh URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/golds-glitter-is-here-to-stay-as-eyes-turn-to-us-inflation-and-fed-chair-warsh-202608240309 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 03:09:00 GMT
[3] Top 3 Price Prediction: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple - BTC, ETH and XRP pause as momentum indicators signal overbought conditions, massive rallies URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/top-3-price-prediction-bitcoin-ethereum-ripple-btc-eth-and-xrp-pause-as-momentum-indicators-signal-overbought-conditions-massive-rallies-202608240307 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 03:07:50 GMT
[4] EUR/USD uptrend pauses as buyers digest strong gains URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eur-usd-uptrend-pauses-as-buyers-digest-strong-gains-202608240301 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 03:01:27 GMT
[5] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD holds bullish below $70.00/two-month high set on Friday URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-holds-bullish-below-7000-two-month-high-set-on-friday-202608240254 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 02:54:03 GMT
[6] United States Dollar Index softens below 99.00 on US fiscal concerns
URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-softens-below-9900-on-us-fiscal-concerns-202608240248
Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 02:48:38 GMT
[7] Japanese Yen advances on BoJ rate hike bets, subdued US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-advances-on-boj-rate-hike-bets-subdued-us-dollar-202608240228 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 02:28:14 GMT
[8] Canadian Dollar bears seem hesitant as weak USD counters US-Canada trade war URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-bears-seem-hesitant-as-weak-usd-counters-us-canada-trade-war-202608240203 Published: Mon, 24 Aug 2026 02:03:55 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] Iraq to begin disarming factions after coalition exit in five weeks Time: 2026-08-24T02:39:00.000Z
[2] Only 4 commodity ships crossed Hormuz on Sunday - Reuters Time: 2026-08-24T01:58:00.000Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 177 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 1 of 60 normal daily β 1.7% of normal
- Throughput: 3.1% of normal (0.3M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 449
- Oil Prices: Brent $95.29 (+3.09%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 66.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS280 (+460% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost