Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-23 20:01:04 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.4% (3d) | Alignment: 14% (1 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | DIX 0.463 above 0.45 and rising β institutions accumulating, 0DTE PCR 1.10 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +4.1B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 59% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -8.2% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.35% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.55 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.09 normal, SPY/TNX -0.39 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.78 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.1 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 144 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.70 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 23 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d -0.2% stable, MOVE 73 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.75% moderate, NFCI -0.559 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β dark pool, gamma, and breadth flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 7 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 81/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.463; GEX positive at 4.1B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads widening (stress building). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.1 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $766.40 | 50 SMA $750.94 | 200 SMA $707.13 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $765.98
- QQQ: $713.43 | 50 SMA $713.05 | 200 SMA $652.37 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $713.96
- IWM: $300.08 | 50 SMA $296.32 | 200 SMA $269.64 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $299.04
- VIX: 15.13 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.738%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $766.40 | 62.91 | 55.7 | $765.98 | Bearish | 2.23 |
| QQQ | $713.43 | 62.36 | 58.6 | $713.96 | Bearish | 2.83 |
| IWM | $300.08 | 59.41 | 29.1 | $299.04 | Neutral | 0.54 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.13 | 50.13 | 48.2 | $11.06 | Neutral | 0.95 |
| TNX | 47.38 | 44.95 | 41.5 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $422.26 | 80.08 | 34.2 | $399.26 | Neutral | 1.25 |
| DXY | 98.84 | 28.94 | 37.1 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $62.45 | 76.54 | 13.5 | $57.69 | Bearish | 0.34 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.463
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.09B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.75% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.00%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Healthy slope)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 58.6%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 72.5%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 89.5% | 17/19 |
| Consumer Staples | 81.8% | 27/33 |
| Health Care | 81.5% | 44/54 |
| Communication Services | 78.9% | 15/19 |
| Materials | 66.7% | 16/24 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 61.0% | 36/59 |
| Financials | 60.3% | 41/68 |
| Technology | 50.8% | 33/65 |
| Industrials | 43.3% | 29/67 |
| Real Estate | 38.5% | 10/26 |
| Utilities | 13.3% | 4/30 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $86.64 (5d: +2.5%)
- Brent Crude: $93.87 | Spread: $7.23
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0200/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.3500/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $58.82/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $63.64
- UNG (Nat Gas): $9.99
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.548 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.089 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.387 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.784 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.40
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,187,829.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,495,027.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.10 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $511.7B
- Gamma Call Wall: $772 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $766.40)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -10,560 contracts (Z +1.84, as of 2026-08-18)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -4.4% (as of 2026-08-19)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.74%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.03 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.84
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: N/A
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.34% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.34%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.34%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 23/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6745.7B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $953.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,792B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,926B β²
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,056B β²
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,774B β
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,718 β² (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.463, GEX +4.1B, HY OAS 2.75%, breadth 59%.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.784 with energy in ELEVATED β crude shock propagating into equities.
- [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -8.2% β growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 144 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Data integrity: volatility_regime is STALE (~3h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: nfci is STALE (~193h old vs an expected max of ~193h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [INFO] SPY (766.40) reclaimed ZGL (765.98) β volatility dampening resumes.
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.35%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.9939000000 | Prev: 102.7868000000
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.09 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β17.4% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (β4.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.68 (β0.4% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (14):
[1] New Zealand Dollar edges lower below 0.6000 after weaker Retail Sales data
URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-edges-lower-below-06000-after-weaker-retail-sales-data-202608232339
Published: Sun, 23 Aug 2026 23:39:41 GMT
[2] Iran's Araghchi says new sanctions threatened by 'desperate' US will fail URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/irans-araghchi-says-new-sanctions-threatened-by-desperate-us-will-fail-202608232310 Published: Sun, 23 Aug 2026 23:10:17 GMT
[3] New Zealand Retail Sales fall 0.5% QoQ in Q2, vs 0.1 expected URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-retail-sales-fall-05-qoq-in-q2-vs-01-expected-202608232249 Published: Sun, 23 Aug 2026 22:49:41 GMT
[4] New Zealand Retail Sales ex Autos (QoQ) declined to 0.7% in 2Q from previous 1% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-retail-sales-ex-autos-qoq-declined-to-07-in-2q-from-previous-1-202608232248 Published: Sun, 23 Aug 2026 22:48:01 GMT
[5] New Zealand Retail Sales (QoQ) registered at -0.5%, below expectations (0.1%) in 2Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-retail-sales-qoq-registered-at-05-below-expectations-01-in-2q-202608232247 Published: Sun, 23 Aug 2026 22:47:32 GMT
[6] New Zealand Retail Sales (QoQ) above expectations (0.1%) in 2Q: Actual (0.7%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-retail-sales-qoq-above-expectations-01-in-2q-actual-07-202608232247 Published: Sun, 23 Aug 2026 22:47:15 GMT
[7] COT Report - August 21, 2026 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/cot-report-august-21-2026-202608232245 Published: Sun, 23 Aug 2026 22:45:15 GMT
[8] Weekly column: US debt tops forty trillion as treasury buybacks spark precious metals rally URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/weekly-column-us-debt-tops-forty-trillion-as-treasury-buybacks-spark-precious-metals-rally-202608231751 Published: Sun, 23 Aug 2026 17:51:35 GMT
[9] ATRenew reports another set of brilliant quarterly results URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/atrenew-reports-another-set-of-brilliant-quarterly-results-202608231747 Published: Sun, 23 Aug 2026 17:47:18 GMT
[10] 12 years trading Gold. What finally worked? [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/education/12-years-trading-gold-what-finally-worked-video-202608231745 Published: Sun, 23 Aug 2026 17:45:01 GMT
[11] NOVO_B price outlook: Novo Nordisk holds above 1 (100%) support ARC. Potential rebound toward 306.00 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/novo-b-price-outlook-novo-nordisk-holds-above-1-100-support-arc-potential-rebound-toward-30600-202608231743 Published: Sun, 23 Aug 2026 17:43:11 GMT
[12] Lean hogs reach an all-time COT extreme as the livestock complex turns bullish URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/lean-hogs-reach-an-all-time-cot-extreme-as-the-livestock-complex-turns-bullish-202608231741 Published: Sun, 23 Aug 2026 17:41:13 GMT
[13] Brits regret not buying Gold but didn't learn their lesson URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/brits-regret-not-buying-gold-but-didnt-learn-their-lesson-202608231739 Published: Sun, 23 Aug 2026 17:39:25 GMT
[14] India Gold market showing signs of recovery URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/india-gold-market-showing-signs-of-recovery-202608231738 Published: Sun, 23 Aug 2026 17:38:38 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (10):
[1] Yemeni government forces launch drone strikes on Houthi targets Time: 2026-08-23T23:28:07.102Z
[2] Araghchi hails Lebanese 'resistance' in meeting with Hezbollah lawmaker Time: 2026-08-23T22:55:00.000Z
[3] Bessent touts 'endgame' with Iran as US turns to economic war Time: 2026-08-23T22:17:00.000Z
[4] Iran threatens fines and seizure for ships violating Hormuz transit rules Time: 2026-08-23T21:24:00.000Z
[5] Hormuz traffic remains at reduced levels amid Iranian threats - UKMTO Time: 2026-08-23T20:35:00.000Z
[6] Support for US economic war against Iran is 'act of war,' Rezaei says Time: 2026-08-23T19:41:33.584Z
[7] Iran conflict will enter new phase soon, US House speaker says Time: 2026-08-23T17:44:00.553Z
[8] US military says 70 vessels redirected under Iran blockade Time: 2026-08-23T17:01:32.882Z
[9] Iran parliament panel advances plan to charge ships transiting Hormuz Time: 2026-08-23T15:22:06.818Z
[10] Video: 'We love you BB' sprayed on wall in Iran in support of Netanyahu Time: 2026-08-23T14:47:28.404Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 176 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 73 of 60 normal daily β 12.2% of normal
- Throughput: 12.2% of normal (1.3M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 280
- Oil Prices: Brent $95.29 (+3.09%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 66.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS285 (+470% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost