Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-21 17:03:27 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -0.5% (3d) | Alignment: 17% (1 aligned, 5 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE — Moderate divergence — several structural signals disagree with price

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	DIX 0.462 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.10 balanced
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	GEX +4.9B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Breadth 59% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	Copper/Gold -8.2% growth collapse · real yield 2.35% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.54 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.09 normal, SPY/TNX -0.40 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.79 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 15.1 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 143 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.70 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Stagflation score 23 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	USD/JPY 5d -0.2% stable, MOVE 73 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	HY OAS 2.75% moderate, NFCI -0.559 loose

Divergence read: SPY slipping but gamma, breadth, and inflation flash bullish against the risk-on tape — 5 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 76/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 5 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.462; GEX positive at 4.9B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads widening (stress building). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.1 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Regime: low — Calm regime — balanced board
Longs: ELAN, KHC, PFE
Shorts: IBKR, WTW

Track Record

AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 13% (n=231) | 3d 36% (n=231) | 5d 33% (n=231)
Screener Board Record: 244 closed (hit rate 48%) · 147 open

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $765.72 | 50 SMA $750.94 | 200 SMA $707.13 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $765.98
QQQ: $713.00 | 50 SMA $713.05 | 200 SMA $652.37 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $713.96
IWM: $299.99 | 50 SMA $296.32 | 200 SMA $269.64 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $299.04
VIX: 15.13 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.738%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$765.72	62.91	55.7	$765.98	Bearish	2.23
QQQ	$713.00	62.36	58.6	$713.96	Bearish	2.83
IWM	$299.99	59.41	29.1	$299.04	Neutral	0.54

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.13	50.13	48.2	$11.06	Neutral	0.95
TNX	47.38	44.95	41.5	-	-	-
GLD	$422.39	80.08	34.2	$399.26	Neutral	1.24
DXY	98.85	29.05	37.2	-	-	-
SLV	$62.42	76.54	13.5	$57.69	Bearish	0.34

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.462
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.91B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.75% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 1.00%
2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Healthy slope)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 58.6%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 72.5%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 495
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.5%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Energy	89.5%	0/0
Consumer Staples	81.8%	0/0
Health Care	81.5%	0/0
Communication Services	78.9%	0/0
Materials	66.7%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	61.0%	0/0
Financials	60.3%	0/0
Technology	50.8%	0/0
Industrials	43.3%	0/0
Real Estate	38.5%	0/0
Utilities	13.3%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: ELEVATED
WTI Crude: $86.74 (5d: +2.6%)
Brent Crude: $94.00 | Spread: $7.26
RBOB Gasoline: $3.0200/gal
Heating Oil: $4.3500/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $58.72/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $63.64
UNG (Nat Gas): $9.99

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.543	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.092	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.396	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.785	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.40
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 3,187,829.0
0DTE Put Volume: 3,495,027.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.10 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $511.7B
Gamma Call Wall: $770 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $765.72)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -10,560 contracts (Z +1.84, as of 2026-08-18)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -4.4% (as of 2026-08-19)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.74%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.03 (Normal)
DXY: 98.85
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.34% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.34%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.34%
Stagflation Risk Score: 23/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6745.7B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $953.6B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,792B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,923B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,053B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,768B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,476 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.462, GEX +4.9B, HY OAS 2.75%, breadth 59%.
[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.785 with energy in ELEVATED — crude shock propagating into equities.
[WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -8.2% — growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
[WARNING] SKEW at 143 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[WARNING] SPY (765.54) dropped below ZGL (765.96) — expect amplified downside moves.
[INFO] SPY (765.94) reclaimed ZGL (763.18) — volatility dampening resumes.
[INFO] Screener: 2 fresh PRIMED high-conviction name(s) for 2026-08-21 — SAM (conviction 66/100, range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=4172)); AXTA (conviction 64/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 47% (n=2151)). Calibrated setups only; decision-support, not advice.

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.35%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Industrial Production: 102.9939000000 | Prev: 102.7868000000

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
Retail Sales: 2026-09-16

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.09 (↑0.5% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.4% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.1% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.68 (↓0.4% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (1):

[1] South Korean Won: Cautious tightening path expected from BoK - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korean-won-cautious-tightening-path-expected-from-bok-dbs-202608212058 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 20:58:00 GMT

Iran War News

No new Iran International updates since last report.

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 174 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 1 of 60 normal daily — 1.7% of normal
Throughput: 1.7% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 449
Oil Prices: Brent $95.29 (+3.09%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 66.7x normal
Tanker Rates: WS520 (+940% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost