Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-21 11:31:14 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -0.5% (3d) | Alignment: 29% (2 aligned, 5 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE — Moderate divergence — several structural signals disagree with price

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	DIX 0.462 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.11 put-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	GEX +4.9B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Breadth 57% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	Copper/Gold -7.4% growth collapse · real yield 2.35% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.55 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.09 normal, SPY/TNX -0.40 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.79 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 15.3 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 143 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.63 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Stagflation score 23 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	USD/JPY 5d -0.2% stable, MOVE 73 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	HY OAS 2.73% moderate, NFCI -0.559 loose

Divergence read: SPY slipping but gamma, breadth, and inflation flash bullish against the risk-on tape — 5 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 81/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 5 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.462; GEX positive at 4.9B (vol-suppressing); breadth rising to 57% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.3 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $765.88 | 50 SMA $750.94 | 200 SMA $707.13 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $762.78
QQQ: $712.85 | 50 SMA $713.05 | 200 SMA $652.37 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $711.64
IWM: $299.21 | 50 SMA $296.32 | 200 SMA $269.64 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $297.74
VIX: 15.26 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.736%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$765.88	62.91	55.7	$762.78	Neutral	1.22
QQQ	$712.85	62.36	58.6	$711.64	Neutral	1.33
IWM	$299.21	59.41	29.1	$297.74	Neutral	0.97

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.26	50.13	48.2	$11.06	Neutral	0.95
TNX	47.36	44.95	41.5	-	-	-
GLD	$421.99	80.08	34.2	$399.23	Bearish	0.08
DXY	98.88	29.39	37.3	-	-	-
SLV	$62.69	76.54	13.5	$57.71	Bearish	0.23

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.462
DIX Signal: Moderate buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.91B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.73% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 1.00%
2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Healthy slope)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 57.4%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 73.8%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 493
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.5%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Energy	89.5%	0/0
Communication Services	84.2%	0/0
Health Care	81.5%	0/0
Materials	70.8%	0/0
Consumer Staples	66.7%	0/0
Financials	58.2%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	54.2%	0/0
Technology	50.8%	0/0
Real Estate	48.0%	0/0
Industrials	43.3%	0/0
Utilities	16.7%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: ELEVATED
WTI Crude: $86.82 (5d: +2.8%)
Brent Crude: $94.20 | Spread: $7.38
RBOB Gasoline: $3.0600/gal
Heating Oil: $4.4100/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $60.60/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $63.62
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.09

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.545	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.09	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.395	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.785	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.18
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 1,239,113.0
0DTE Put Volume: 1,377,222.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.11 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $200.4B
Gamma Call Wall: $770 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $765.88)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: +11,280 contracts (Z +2.32, as of 2026-08-11)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -4.4% (as of 2026-08-19)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.74%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.02 (Normal)
DXY: 98.88
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.34% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.34%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.34%
Stagflation Risk Score: 23/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6745.7B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $953.6B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,792B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,924B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,055B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,771B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $76,664 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.462, GEX +4.9B, HY OAS 2.73%, breadth 57%.
[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.785 with energy in ELEVATED — crude shock propagating into equities.
[WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -7.4% — growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
[WARNING] SKEW at 143 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[INFO] Screener: 2 fresh PRIMED high-conviction name(s) for 2026-08-21 — SAM (conviction 66/100, range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=4172)); AXTA (conviction 64/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 47% (n=2151)). Calibrated setups only; decision-support, not advice.
[INFO] Screener: HSIC — promotion-ready (31d on list, HIGH conviction 62/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 47% (n=2151)).
[INFO] Screener: SAM — promotion-ready (64d on list, HIGH conviction 66/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=4172)).

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.34%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Industrial Production: 102.9939000000 | Prev: 102.7868000000

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
Retail Sales: 2026-09-16

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.09 (↑0.5% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.4% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.1% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.68 (↓0.4% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (3):

[1] AUD/USD Price Forecast: Bulls eye 0.7200 as RSI nears overbought territory URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-price-forecast-bulls-eye-07200-as-rsi-nears-overbought-territory-202608211526 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 15:26:03 GMT

[2] Friday market check: The breakouts are talking URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/friday-market-check-the-breakouts-are-talking-202608211522 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 15:22:51 GMT

[3] EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: US Dollar falls apart, what's next? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eur-usd-weekly-forecast-us-dollar-falls-apart-whats-next-202608211521 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 15:21:42 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (1):

[1] Iran finalizes preferential trade deal with Oman amid US economic pressure Time: 2026-08-21T15:25:22.778Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 174 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 1 of 60 normal daily — 1.7% of normal
Throughput: 1.5% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 295
Oil Prices: Brent $95.29 (+3.09%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 56.7x normal
Tanker Rates: WS285 (+470% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost