Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-21 10:46:19 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.6% (3d) | Alignment: 29% (2 aligned, 5 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.462 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.23 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +4.9B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 57% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -7.4% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.35% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.54 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.09 normal, SPY/TNX -0.40 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.78 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.4 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 143 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.62 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 23 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d -0.2% stable, MOVE 73 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.73% moderate, NFCI -0.559 loose |
Divergence read: SPY slipping but gamma, breadth, and inflation flash bullish against the risk-on tape β 5 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 81/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 5 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.462; GEX positive at 4.9B (vol-suppressing); breadth rising to 57% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.4 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $764.74 | 50 SMA $750.94 | 200 SMA $707.13 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $762.69
- QQQ: $711.26 | 50 SMA $713.05 | 200 SMA $652.37 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $698.14
- IWM: $298.51 | 50 SMA $296.32 | 200 SMA $269.64 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $297.76
- VIX: 15.39 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.732%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $764.74 | 62.91 | 55.7 | $762.69 | Neutral | 1.31 |
| QQQ | $711.26 | 62.36 | 58.6 | $698.14 | Neutral | 1.46 |
| IWM | $298.51 | 59.41 | 29.1 | $297.76 | Neutral | 1.21 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.39 | 50.13 | 48.2 | $11.06 | Neutral | 0.94 |
| TNX | 47.32 | 44.95 | 41.5 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $420.52 | 80.08 | 34.2 | $408.95 | Bearish | 0.08 |
| DXY | 98.88 | 29.36 | 37.3 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $62.37 | 76.54 | 13.5 | $57.70 | Bearish | 0.26 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.462
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 4.91B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.73% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.00%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Healthy slope)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 57.4%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 73.8%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 493
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 89.5% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 84.2% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 81.5% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 70.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 66.7% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 58.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 54.2% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 50.8% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 48.0% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 43.3% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 16.7% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $86.68 (5d: +2.6%)
- Brent Crude: $93.93 | Spread: $7.25
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0600/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.4200/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $60.88/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $63.84
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.10
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.543 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.094 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.402 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.784 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.18
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 736,082.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 901,732.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.23 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $125.2B
- Gamma Call Wall: $770 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $764.74)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: +11,280 contracts (Z +2.32, as of 2026-08-11)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -4.4% (as of 2026-08-19)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.73%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.02 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.88
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.34% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.34%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.34%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 23/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6745.7B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $953.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,792B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,924B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,055B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,771B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $76,664 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.462, GEX +4.9B, HY OAS 2.73%, breadth 57%.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.784 with energy in ELEVATED β crude shock propagating into equities.
- [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -7.4% β growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 143 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] Screener: 2 fresh PRIMED high-conviction name(s) for 2026-08-21 β SAM (conviction 66/100, range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=4172)); AXTA (conviction 64/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 47% (n=2151)). Calibrated setups only; decision-support, not advice.
- [INFO] Screener: HSIC β promotion-ready (31d on list, HIGH conviction 62/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 47% (n=2151)).
- [INFO] Screener: SAM β promotion-ready (64d on list, HIGH conviction 66/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=4172)).
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.34%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.9939000000 | Prev: 102.7868000000
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.09 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β17.4% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (β4.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.68 (β0.4% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (5):
[1] US Dollar: Jackson Hole volatility over credibility - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-jackson-hole-volatility-over-credibility-td-securities-202608211443 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 14:43:09 GMT
[2] Euro: PMI strength supports against US Dollar - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-pmi-strength-supports-against-us-dollar-bbh-202608211428 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 14:28:04 GMT
[3] Japanese Yen strengthens against US Dollar as inflation backs BoJ rate hike bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-strengthens-against-us-dollar-as-inflation-backs-boj-rate-hike-bets-202608211423 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 14:23:31 GMT
[4] European gas: Storage gap supports high prices - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/european-gas-storage-gap-supports-high-prices-commerzbank-202608211419 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 14:19:27 GMT
[5] Bitcoin faces $80,000 test as thinner weekend liquidity looms URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-faces-80-000-test-as-thinner-weekend-liquidity-looms-202608211417 Published: Fri, 21 Aug 2026 14:17:24 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] Navy chief says enemy will not be allowed to approach Iranian territory Time: 2026-08-21T14:17:04.016Z
[2] Syria says Iran must acknowledge what it did to Syrians before ties improve Time: 2026-08-21T13:16:34.517Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 174 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 6 of 60 normal daily β 10.0% of normal
- Throughput: 10.2% of normal (1.1M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 295
- Oil Prices: Brent $95.29 (+3.09%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 56.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS365 (+630% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost