Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-20 20:01:27 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.6% (3d) | Alignment: 33% (2 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.441 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.31 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +6.7B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 54% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -8.2% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.41% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.55 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.10 normal, SPY/TNX -0.39 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.65 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.0 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 143 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.61 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 20 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d -0.2% stable, MOVE 73 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.73% moderate, NFCI -0.559 loose |
Divergence read: Moderate divergence β gamma, inflation, and carry flash bullish while SPY tracks bearish. 4 of 6 signals disagree with price. Watch for: breadth expansion above 55% (bullish resolution).
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 69/100 (Mixed) | Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.441; GEX positive at 6.7B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads tightening (risk appetite improving). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.0 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $762.90 | 50 SMA $750.43 | 200 SMA $706.73 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $769.53
- QQQ: $710.88 | 50 SMA $712.98 | 200 SMA $651.96 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $695.97
- IWM: $297.65 | 50 SMA $296.07 | 200 SMA $269.38 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $299.45
- VIX: 16.01 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.696%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $762.90 | 73.13 | 52.9 | $769.53 | Bearish | 2.73 |
| QQQ | $710.88 | 67.67 | 58.4 | $695.97 | Bearish | 2.71 |
| IWM | $297.65 | 64.40 | 26.2 | $299.45 | Bearish | 2.29 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.01 | 36.15 | 45.5 | $11.06 | Neutral | 0.93 |
| TNX | 46.96 βΌ | 49.05 | 39.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $414.50 | 73.86 | 34.4 | $401.64 | Bearish | 0.14 |
| DXY | 98.87 | 28.19 | 45.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $61.55 | 69.14 | 13.8 | $56.37 | Bearish | 0.26 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.441
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.69B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.73% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.00%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.50% (Healthy slope)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 53.7%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.4%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 162
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 88.2% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 81.2% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 72.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 63.2% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 61.5% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 54.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 46.7% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 40.0% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 34.5% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 28.6% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 14.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $86.21 (5d: +4.6%)
- Brent Crude: $93.15 | Spread: $6.94
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0100/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.3700/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $59.25/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $63.75
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.01
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.545 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.1 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.394 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.646 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.18
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,078,943.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,035,264.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.31 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $542.5B
- Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $762.90)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: +11,280 contracts (Z +2.32, as of 2026-08-11)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -4.4% (as of 2026-08-19)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.70%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.99 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.87
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.30%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.32%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6745.7B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $953.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,792B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,924B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,055B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,771B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $73,083 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Data integrity: pct_above_50sma is STALE (~7h old vs an expected max of ~6h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.646 with energy in ELEVATED β crude shock propagating into equities.
- [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -8.2% β growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 143 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] Screener: FLR β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 68/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=4172)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: TKO β promotion-ready (79d on list, HIGH conviction 63/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=4172)).
- [INFO] Screener: OKTA β promotion-ready (7d on list, HIGH conviction 73/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=4172)).
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.33%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.9939000000 | Prev: 102.7868000000
Earnings:
- WMT: EPS Est. $0.68 (β0.4% vs 30d)
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.09 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β17.4% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (β4.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (22):
[1] Bessent says US unlikely to resume large-scale Iran combat, steps up economic pressure URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/bessent-says-us-unlikely-to-resume-large-scale-iran-combat-steps-up-economic-pressure-202608202352 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 23:52:36 GMT
[2] Gold drifts higher above $4,500 on US Treasury buyback URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-drifts-higher-above-4-500-on-us-treasury-buyback-202608202337 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 23:37:16 GMT
[3] Japan National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) in line with expectations (1.8%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-national-cpi-ex-fresh-food-yoy-in-line-with-expectations-18-in-july-202608202333 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 23:33:59 GMT
[4] Japan National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY): 1.8% (July) vs 1.7% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-national-cpi-ex-food-energy-yoy-18-july-vs-17-202608202333 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 23:33:55 GMT
[5] Japan's National CPI climbs 2.0% YoY in July, Core CPI rises as expected URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japans-national-cpi-climbs-20-yoy-in-july-core-cpi-rises-as-expected-202608202332 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 23:32:02 GMT
[6] New Zealand Trade Balance NZD (MoM) dipped from previous $23M to $1.95M in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-trade-balance-nzd-mom-dipped-from-previous-23m-to-195m-in-july-202608202331 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 23:31:59 GMT
[7] Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY) up to 2% in July from previous 1.7% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-national-consumer-price-index-yoy-up-to-2-in-july-from-previous-17-202608202330 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 23:30:01 GMT
[8] New Zealand Trade Balance NZD (YoY) fell from previous $-3.74B to $-5.23B in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-trade-balance-nzd-yoy-fell-from-previous-374b-to-523b-in-july-202608202329 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 23:29:53 GMT
[9] Australia S&P Global Services PMI dipped from previous 53.6 to 52.9 in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-sp-global-services-pmi-dipped-from-previous-536-to-529-in-august-202608202329 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 23:29:19 GMT
[10] Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI unchanged at 52 in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-unchanged-at-52-in-august-202608202329 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 23:29:14 GMT
[11] Australia S&P Global Composite PMI down to 52.5 in August from previous 53.2 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-sp-global-composite-pmi-down-to-525-in-august-from-previous-532-202608202329 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 23:29:09 GMT
[12] GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Bulls eye 217.00 as rally extends URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-jpy-price-forecast-bulls-eye-21700-as-rally-extends-202608202327 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 23:27:30 GMT
[13] New Zealand Exports dipped from previous $8.09B to $7.39B in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-exports-dipped-from-previous-809b-to-739b-in-july-202608202325 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 23:25:52 GMT
[14] New Zealand Imports up to $9.34B in July from previous $8.07B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-imports-up-to-934b-in-july-from-previous-807b-202608202325 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 23:25:48 GMT
[15] New Zealand Imports dipped from previous $8.07B to $7.39B in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-imports-dipped-from-previous-807b-to-739b-in-july-202608202325 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 23:25:26 GMT
[16] Australian Dollar weakens as US yields rebound, PMIs fail to impress URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-weakens-as-us-yields-rebound-pmis-fail-to-impress-202608202315 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 23:15:34 GMT
[17] Australia's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI steadies at 52.0 in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australias-sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-steadies-at-520-in-august-202608202302 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 23:02:33 GMT
[18] United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence came in at -14, above forecasts (-18) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-gfk-consumer-confidence-came-in-at-14-above-forecasts-18-in-august-202608202302 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 23:02:04 GMT
[19] The Japanese Yen is the reason for its own hike URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/the-japanese-yen-is-the-reason-for-its-own-hike-202608202246 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 22:46:18 GMT
[20] The British Pound is buying an energy bill, not inflation URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/the-british-pound-is-buying-an-energy-bill-not-inflation-202608202245 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 22:45:03 GMT
[21] Euro fades below 1.1700 as US Dollar rebounds on yields URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-fades-below-11700-as-us-dollar-rebounds-on-yields-202608202230 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 22:30:09 GMT
[22] Dow Jones Industrial Average repays the Treasury's rally with interest URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-industrial-average-repays-the-treasurys-rally-with-interest-202608202222 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 22:22:54 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (3):
[1] Trump says Iran's capacity to build missiles, drones is 'very low' Time: 2026-08-20T23:18:38.525Z
[2] Vance says Iran could survive US economic pressure for months Time: 2026-08-20T22:58:57.718Z
[3] Iran-aligned Houthis say they struck targets in Saudi Arabia Time: 2026-08-20T22:06:59.812Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 173 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 3 of 60 normal daily β 1.7% of normal
- Throughput: 1.7% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 295
- Oil Prices: Brent $95.29 (+3.09%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 53.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS280 (+460% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost