Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-20 17:03:44 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.6% (3d) | Alignment: 33% (2 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.441 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.31 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +6.7B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 54% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -8.2% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.41% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.55 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.11 normal, SPY/TNX -0.40 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.65 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.0 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 143 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.61 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 20 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d -0.3% stable, MOVE 73 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.73% moderate, NFCI -0.559 loose |
Divergence read: Moderate divergence β gamma, inflation, and carry flash bullish while SPY tracks bearish. 4 of 6 signals disagree with price. Watch for: breadth expansion above 55% (bullish resolution).
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 69/100 (Mixed) | Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.441; GEX positive at 6.7B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads tightening (risk appetite improving). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.0 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: ELAN, KHC, PFE
- Shorts: IBKR, WTW
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 14% (n=240) | 3d 36% (n=240) | 5d 32% (n=240)
- Screener Board Record: 226 closed (hit rate 46%) Β· 155 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $762.98 | 50 SMA $750.43 | 200 SMA $706.73 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $769.53
- QQQ: $711.09 | 50 SMA $712.98 | 200 SMA $651.96 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $695.97
- IWM: $297.67 | 50 SMA $296.07 | 200 SMA $269.38 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $299.44
- VIX: 16.01 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.696%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $762.98 | 73.13 | 52.9 | $769.53 | Bearish | 2.73 |
| QQQ | $711.09 | 67.67 | 58.4 | $695.97 | Bearish | 2.71 |
| IWM | $297.67 | 64.40 | 26.2 | $299.44 | Bearish | 2.29 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.01 | 36.15 | 45.5 | $11.06 | Neutral | 0.94 |
| TNX | 46.96 βΌ | 49.05 | 39.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $414.53 | 73.86 | 34.4 | $401.64 | Bearish | 0.14 |
| DXY | 98.87 | 28.27 | 45.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $61.52 | 69.14 | 13.8 | $56.37 | Bearish | 0.26 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.441
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.69B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.73% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.00%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 53.7%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.4%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 162
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 88.2% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 81.2% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 72.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 63.2% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 61.5% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 54.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 46.7% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 40.0% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 34.5% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 28.6% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 14.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $86.37 (5d: +4.8%)
- Brent Crude: $93.34 | Spread: $6.97
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0100/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.3700/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $59.09/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $63.75
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.01
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.547 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.106 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.396 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.646 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 73.18
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,078,943.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 4,035,264.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.31 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $542.5B
- Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $762.98)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: +11,280 contracts (Z +2.32, as of 2026-08-11)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -4.4% (as of 2026-08-19)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.70%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.99 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.87
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.30%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.32%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6745.7B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $953.6B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,796B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,923B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,075B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,794B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $72,603 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.646 with energy in ELEVATED β crude shock propagating into equities.
- [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -8.2% β growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 143 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] SPY (763.64) dropped below ZGL (769.40) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [INFO] SPY (763.33) reclaimed ZGL (740.99) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [INFO] Screener: 6 fresh PRIMED high-conviction name(s) for 2026-08-20 β RJF (conviction 74/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 48% (n=2059)); EL (conviction 74/100, post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 59% @10d (n=160)); TGT (conviction 69/100, post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 59% @10d (n=160)); AZO (conviction 69/100, range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=4033)); MRNA (conviction 67/100, range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=4033)); PDD (conviction 60/100, range_noise, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 50% (n=7443)). Calibrated setups only; decision-support, not advice.
- [INFO] Screener: DECK β promotion-ready (10d on list, HIGH conviction 68/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=4033)).
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.33%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.9939000000 | Prev: 102.7868000000
Earnings:
- WMT: EPS Est. $0.68 (β0.4% vs 30d)
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.09 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β17.4% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (β4.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (5):
[1] South Korea Producer Price Index Growth (MoM) down to -0.4% in July from previous 0% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korea-producer-price-index-growth-mom-down-to-04-in-july-from-previous-0-202608202100 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 21:00:02 GMT
[2] South Korea Producer Price Index Growth (YoY) declined to 7.7% in July from previous 8.6% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korea-producer-price-index-growth-yoy-declined-to-77-in-july-from-previous-86-202608202100 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 21:00:00 GMT
[3] US Treasury intervenes in bond market to drive yields lower URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/us-treasury-intervenes-in-bond-market-to-drive-yields-lower-202608202048 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 20:48:30 GMT
[4] $40 trillion debt black hole: Is a financial crisis coming? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/40-trillion-debt-black-hole-is-a-financial-crisis-coming-202608202046 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 20:46:55 GMT
[5] The $40 trillion national debt in perspective URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-40-trillion-national-debt-in-perspective-202608202044 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 20:44:28 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Bessent warns countries against remaining ties with Tehran Time: 2026-08-20T20:59:46.080Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 173 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 1 of 60 normal daily β 1.7% of normal
- Throughput: 1.7% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $95.29 (+3.09%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 56.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS285 (+470% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost