Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-20 13:23:54 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 33% (2 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.441 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.33 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +6.7B strong suppression |
| Breadth | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Breadth 54% β mixed participation |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -8.1% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.41% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.53 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.09 normal, SPY/TNX -0.39 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.64 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.8 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 143 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.68 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 20 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d -0.3% stable, MOVE 71 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.73% moderate, NFCI -0.559 loose |
Divergence read: Moderate divergence β gamma, inflation, and carry flash bullish while SPY tracks bearish. 4 of 6 signals disagree with price. Watch for: breadth expansion above 55% (bullish resolution).
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 69/100 (Mixed) | Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.441; GEX positive at 6.7B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads tightening (risk appetite improving). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.8 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $765.14 | 50 SMA $750.43 | 200 SMA $706.73 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $769.46
- QQQ: $711.28 | 50 SMA $712.98 | 200 SMA $651.96 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $695.99
- IWM: $297.50 | 50 SMA $296.07 | 200 SMA $269.38 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $299.52
- VIX: 15.80 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.702%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $765.14 | 73.13 | 52.9 | $769.46 | Bearish | 1.98 |
| QQQ | $711.28 | 67.67 | 58.4 | $695.99 | Bearish | 2.17 |
| IWM | $297.50 | 64.40 | 26.2 | $299.52 | Bearish | 2.17 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.80 | 36.15 | 45.5 | $11.06 | Neutral | 0.95 |
| TNX | 47.02 βΌ | 49.05 | 39.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $413.75 | 73.86 | 34.4 | $389.52 | Bearish | 0.16 |
| DXY | 98.91 | 29.43 | 45.9 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $61.59 | 69.14 | 13.8 | $54.65 | Bearish | 0.24 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.441
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.69B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.73% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.00%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 53.7%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.4%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 270
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 88.2% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 81.2% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 72.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 63.2% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 61.5% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 54.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 46.7% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 40.0% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 34.5% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 28.6% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 14.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $86.32 (5d: +4.8%)
- Brent Crude: $93.21 | Spread: $6.89
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9900/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.3500/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $58.30/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $63.99
- UNG (Nat Gas): $9.86
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.531 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.094 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.386 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.643 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 71.26
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 2,002,701.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 2,655,445.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.33 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $356.4B
- Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $765.14)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: +11,280 contracts (Z +2.32, as of 2026-08-11)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -4.4% (as of 2026-08-19)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.70%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.00 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.91
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.30%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.32%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6760.0B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $964.0B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.3B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,796B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,923B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,075B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,794B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $72,381 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.643 with energy in ELEVATED β crude shock propagating into equities.
- [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -8.1% β growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 143 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] SPY (766.31) dropped below ZGL (769.61) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [INFO] SPY (765.79) reclaimed ZGL (741.02) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [INFO] Screener: 6 fresh PRIMED high-conviction name(s) for 2026-08-20 β RJF (conviction 74/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 48% (n=2059)); EL (conviction 74/100, post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 59% @10d (n=160)); TGT (conviction 69/100, post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 59% @10d (n=160)); AZO (conviction 69/100, range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=4033)); MRNA (conviction 67/100, range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=4033)); PDD (conviction 60/100, range_noise, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 50% (n=7443)). Calibrated setups only; decision-support, not advice.
- [INFO] Screener: DECK β promotion-ready (10d on list, HIGH conviction 68/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=4033)).
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.35%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.9939000000 | Prev: 102.7868000000
Earnings:
- WMT: EPS Est. $0.68 (β0.4% vs 30d)
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β17.4% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (β4.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (4):
[1] A tenth of the Silver in electronics is heading to one buyer URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/a-tenth-of-the-silver-in-electronics-is-heading-to-one-buyer-202608201709 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 17:09:53 GMT
[2] New Zealand Dollar rises as RBNZ rate hike expectations strengthen URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-rises-as-rbnz-rate-hike-expectations-strengthen-202608201705 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 17:05:03 GMT
[3] Bitcoin holds key Elliott Wave support as bulls target $77,000 before possible $164,000-$337,000 cycle peak URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-holds-key-elliott-wave-support-as-bulls-target-77-000-before-possible-164-000-337-000-cycle-peak-202608201703 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 17:03:23 GMT
[4] Australian Dollar holds near highs as mixed data keeps RBA tightening bets alive URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-holds-near-highs-as-mixed-data-keeps-rba-tightening-bets-alive-202608201701 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 17:01:02 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] US to target Hezbollah with fresh sanctions over Iran ties - Reuters Time: 2026-08-20T17:11:19.204Z
[2] Qatar says Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb shipping must not be 'held hostage' Time: 2026-08-20T16:55:29.035Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 173 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 6 of 60 normal daily β 1.7% of normal
- Throughput: 1.7% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 150
- Oil Prices: Brent $95.29 (+3.09%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 56.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS285 (+470% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost