Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-20 11:42:31 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 29% (2 aligned, 5 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE — Moderate divergence — several structural signals disagree with price

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	DIX 0.441 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.34 put-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	GEX +6.7B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Breadth 56% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Energy ELEVATED — watch for transmission but not yet bearish
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	Copper/Gold -8.0% growth collapse · real yield 2.41% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.53 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.08 normal, SPY/TNX -0.39 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.65 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 15.9 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 143 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.69 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Stagflation score 20 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	USD/JPY 5d -0.5% stable, MOVE 71 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	HY OAS 2.75% moderate, NFCI -0.559 loose

Divergence read: Moderate divergence — gamma, breadth, and inflation flash bullish while SPY tracks bearish. 5 of 7 signals disagree with price.

Market Status

Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 76/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 76 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.441) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 5 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.441; GEX positive at 6.7B (vol-suppressing); breadth falling to 56% (participation narrowing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.9 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $765.56 | 50 SMA $750.43 | 200 SMA $706.73 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $741.02
QQQ: $710.52 | 50 SMA $712.98 | 200 SMA $651.96 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $695.98
IWM: $297.93 | 50 SMA $296.07 | 200 SMA $269.38 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $299.55
VIX: 15.90 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.710%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$765.56	73.13	52.9	$741.02	Bearish	1.84
QQQ	$710.52	67.67	58.4	$695.98	Bearish	2.20
IWM	$297.93	64.40	26.2	$299.55	Bearish	2.06

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.90	36.15	45.5	$11.06	Neutral	0.94
TNX	47.10	49.05	39.8	-	-	-
GLD	$414.17	73.86	34.4	$390.50	Bearish	0.14
DXY	98.81	31.77	40.7	-	-	-
SLV	$61.67	69.14	13.8	$54.70	Bearish	0.24

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.441
DIX Signal: Neutral
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.69B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.75% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 1.00%
2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 56.1%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.6%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 269
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.7%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.2%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Energy	100.0%	0/0
Materials	87.5%	0/0
Health Care	85.7%	0/0
Communication Services	72.7%	0/0
Consumer Staples	69.2%	0/0
Financials	57.6%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	50.0%	0/0
Industrials	50.0%	0/0
Technology	41.7%	0/0
Real Estate	16.7%	0/0
Utilities	13.3%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: ELEVATED
WTI Crude: $86.52 (5d: +5.0%)
Brent Crude: $93.59 | Spread: $7.07
RBOB Gasoline: $3.0000/gal
Heating Oil: $4.3600/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $58.52/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $64.50
UNG (Nat Gas): $9.90

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.527	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.084	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.386	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.645	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 71.26
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 1,361,379.0
0DTE Put Volume: 1,825,519.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.34 (Heavy 0DTE Put Buying (Hedging))
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $244.0B
Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $765.56)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: +11,280 contracts (Z +2.32, as of 2026-08-11)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -4.4% (as of 2026-08-19)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.71%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.00 (Normal)
DXY: 98.81
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.30%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.32%
Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6760.0B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $964.0B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.3B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,796B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,923B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,075B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,794B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $71,568 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.645 with energy in ELEVATED — crude shock propagating into equities.
[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -8.0% — growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
[WARNING] SKEW at 143 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[INFO] SPY (765.75) reclaimed ZGL (741.02) — volatility dampening resumes.
[WARNING] SPY (766.62) dropped below ZGL (769.61) — expect amplified downside moves.
[INFO] Screener: 6 fresh PRIMED high-conviction name(s) for 2026-08-20 — RJF (conviction 74/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 48% (n=2059)); EL (conviction 74/100, post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 59% @10d (n=160)); TGT (conviction 69/100, post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 59% @10d (n=160)); AZO (conviction 69/100, range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=4033)); MRNA (conviction 67/100, range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=4033)); PDD (conviction 60/100, range_noise, calibrated failed_breakout hit-rate 50% (n=7443)). Calibrated setups only; decision-support, not advice.
[INFO] Screener: DECK — promotion-ready (10d on list, HIGH conviction 68/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=4033)).

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.35%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Industrial Production: 102.9939000000 | Prev: 102.7868000000

Earnings:

WMT: EPS Est. $0.68 (↓0.4% vs 30d)

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
Industrial Production: 2026-09-18

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑2.7% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓17.4% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑2.0% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓2.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.1% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (1):

[1] Bessent wants bigger bond buybacks, but markets barely blink URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/bessent-wants-bigger-bond-buybacks-but-markets-barely-blink-202608201527 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 15:27:44 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (1):

[BREAKING] [1] Bessent says US will impose 'toughest sanctions in history' on Iran Time: 2026-08-20T15:15:50.134Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 173 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 1 of 60 normal daily — 1.4% of normal
Throughput: 1.5% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 450
Oil Prices: Brent $95.29 (+3.09%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 50.0x normal
Tanker Rates: WS285 (+470% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost