Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-19 22:01:19 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.4% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (2 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.441 below 0.45 and falling β institutional buying drying up, 0DTE PCR 1.08 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +6.7B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 67% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -7.3% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.41% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.50 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.06 normal, SPY/TNX -0.34 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.62 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 14.9 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 143 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.81 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 20 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d -0.8% stable, MOVE 71 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.75% moderate, NFCI -0.559 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 83/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 83 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.441) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.441; GEX positive at 6.7B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads widening (stress building). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.9 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $769.65 | 50 SMA $749.84 | 200 SMA $706.28 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $768.19
- QQQ: $718.00 | 50 SMA $712.98 | 200 SMA $651.51 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $695.96
- IWM: $301.88 | 50 SMA $295.72 | 200 SMA $269.09 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $299.41
- VIX: 14.89 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.653%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $769.65 | 77.22 | 54.4 | $768.19 | Neutral | 0.79 |
| QQQ | $718.00 | 74.80 | 61.2 | $695.96 | Bearish | 1.94 |
| IWM | $301.88 | 67.03 | 30.7 | $299.41 | Neutral | 0.98 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 14.89 | 27.18 | 47.4 | $11.06 | Neutral | 1.01 |
| TNX | 46.53 | 58.20 | 35.4 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $414.41 | 70.30 | 29.9 | $398.60 | Bearish | 0.19 |
| DXY | 98.79 | 20.53 | 47.0 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $60.40 | 67.53 | 13.5 | $46.00 | Bearish | 0.35 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.441
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 6.69B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.75% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.00%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 66.6%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.1%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 242
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.2%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 100.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 86.1% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 83.3% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 80.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 69.6% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 69.2% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 65.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 64.1% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 53.7% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 35.3% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 25.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $84.40 (5d: +3.9%)
- Brent Crude: $91.57 | Spread: $7.17
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9500/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.3200/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $58.68/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $63.58
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.01
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.503 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.062 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.342 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.623 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 71.26
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,239,252.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,508,162.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.08 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $518.9B
- Gamma Call Wall: $769 | Put Wall: $768 (Spot: $769.65)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: +11,280 contracts (Z +2.32, as of 2026-08-11)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -3.2% (as of 2026-08-12)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.65%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.95 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.79
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.30%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.32%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6760.0B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $964.0B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.3B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,796B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,923B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,075B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,794B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $69,684 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Leading indicator divergence: 3/5 leading signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β historically precedes repricing within 3-5 days.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -7.3% β growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 143 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 6/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β structural repricing risk elevated.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Data integrity: volatility_regime is STALE (~3h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [INFO] Screener: ZBRA β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 67/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=4033)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: PANW β promotion-ready (6d on list, HIGH conviction 72/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=4033)).
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.37%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.9939000000 | Prev: 102.7868000000
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β17.4% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (β4.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (19):
[1] Australian Dollar declines following weak labor data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-declines-following-weak-labor-data-202608200155 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 01:55:24 GMT
[2] Australian Dollar reacts little to dismal jobs data; holds above weekly low vs weaker JPY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-reacts-little-to-dismal-jobs-data-holds-above-weekly-low-vs-weaker-jpy-202608200152 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 01:52:34 GMT
[3] Australia Part-Time Employment dipped from previous 47K to -32.2K in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-part-time-employment-dipped-from-previous-47k-to-322k-in-july-202608200133 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 01:33:33 GMT
[4] Australia Unemployment Rate s.a. registered at 4.5% above expectations (4.4%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-unemployment-rate-sa-registered-at-45-above-expectations-44-in-july-202608200130 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 01:30:02 GMT
[5] Australia Participation Rate in line with expectations (66.9%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-participation-rate-in-line-with-expectations-669-in-july-202608200130 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 01:30:02 GMT
[6] Australia Employment Change s.a. came in at -15.8K below forecasts (15K) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-employment-change-sa-came-in-at-158k-below-forecasts-15k-in-july-202608200130 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 01:30:01 GMT
[7] Australia Full-Time Employment down to 16.3K in July from previous 29.3K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-full-time-employment-down-to-163k-in-july-from-previous-293k-202608200130 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 01:30:01 GMT
[8] British Pound edges lower as USD steadies above three-month low; downside seems limited URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-edges-lower-as-usd-steadies-above-three-month-low-downside-seems-limited-202608200118 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 01:18:48 GMT
[9] WTI surges above $84.50 as Strait of Hormuz standoff escalate URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-surges-above-8450-as-strait-of-hormuz-standoff-escalate-202608200117 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 01:17:33 GMT
[10] HYPE soars 20% as Trump signals efforts to bring Hyperliquid to US market in White House meeting URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/hype-soars-20-as-trump-signals-efforts-to-bring-hyperliquid-to-us-market-in-white-house-meeting-202608200117 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 01:17:24 GMT
[11] PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7808 vs. 6.7854 previous URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pboc-sets-usd-cny-reference-rate-at-67808-vs-67854-previous-202608200115 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 01:15:29 GMT
[12] Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations increased to 4.9% in August from previous 4.7% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-consumer-inflation-expectations-increased-to-49-in-august-from-previous-47-202608200113 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 01:13:13 GMT
[13] China PBoC Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (3%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-pboc-interest-rate-decision-meets-forecasts-3-202608200112 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 01:12:59 GMT
[14] PBOC leaves Loan Prime Rates unchanged in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pboc-leaves-loan-prime-rates-unchanged-in-august-202608200107 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 01:07:29 GMT
[15] Euro edges lower below 1.1700 despite fading Fed hike odds URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-edges-lower-below-11700-despite-fading-fed-hike-odds-202608200103 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 01:03:21 GMT
[16] Japan Merchandise Trade Balance Total came in at Β₯-634.5B, above expectations (Β₯-680B) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-merchandise-trade-balance-total-came-in-at-y-6345b-above-expectations-y-680b-in-july-202608200017 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 00:17:16 GMT
[17] Japan Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance: Β₯-686B (July) vs Β₯-881.9B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-adjusted-merchandise-trade-balance-y-686b-july-vs-y-8819b-202608200016 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 00:16:59 GMT
[18] Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks increased to Β₯621.2B in August 14 from previous Β₯-368.5B URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-foreign-investment-in-japan-stocks-increased-to-y6212b-in-august-14-from-previous-y-3685b-202608200015 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 00:15:56 GMT
[19] Japan Foreign Bond Investment fell from previous Β₯1629.4B to Β₯1135.1B in August 14 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-foreign-bond-investment-fell-from-previous-y16294b-to-y11351b-in-august-14-202608200015 Published: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 00:15:44 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] US oil route could reduce need for concessions on Strait of Hormuz Time: 2026-08-20T01:08:09.428Z
[2] Trump misjudged Iran war, no closer to a deal, former US ambassador says Time: 2026-08-20T00:08:56.117Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 172 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 5 of 60 normal daily β 11.7% of normal
- Throughput: 5.0% of normal (0.5M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $93.26 (+0.56%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 56.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS285 (+470% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost