Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-19 20:01:35 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.4% (3d) | Alignment: 14% (1 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.442 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.08 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +5.8B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 67% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy STABLE β no macro headwind from oil |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -7.3% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.41% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.50 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.06 normal, SPY/TNX -0.34 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.62 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 14.9 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 143 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.81 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 20 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d -0.8% stable, MOVE 71 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.75% moderate, NFCI -0.559 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 7 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 83/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 83 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.442) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.442; GEX positive at 5.8B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads widening (stress building). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.9 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $769.65 | 50 SMA $749.84 | 200 SMA $706.28 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $768.19
- QQQ: $718.00 | 50 SMA $712.98 | 200 SMA $651.51 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $695.96
- IWM: $301.88 | 50 SMA $295.72 | 200 SMA $269.09 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $299.41
- VIX: 14.89 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.653%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $769.65 | 77.22 | 54.4 | $768.19 | Neutral | 0.79 |
| QQQ | $718.00 | 74.80 | 61.2 | $695.96 | Bearish | 1.94 |
| IWM | $301.88 | 67.03 | 30.7 | $299.41 | Neutral | 0.98 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 14.89 | 27.18 | 47.4 | $11.06 | Neutral | 1.01 |
| TNX | 46.53 | 58.20 | 35.4 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $414.41 | 70.30 | 29.9 | $398.60 | Bearish | 0.19 |
| DXY | 98.79 | 20.53 | 47.0 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $60.40 | 67.53 | 13.5 | $46.00 | Bearish | 0.35 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.442
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.77B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.75% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.00%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.46% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 66.6%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.1%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 242
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.2%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 100.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 86.1% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 83.3% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 80.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 69.6% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 69.2% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 65.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 64.1% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 53.7% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 35.3% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 25.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: STABLE
- WTI Crude: $84.40 (5d: +3.9%)
- Brent Crude: $91.57 | Spread: $7.17
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9500/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.3200/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $58.68/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $63.58
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.01
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.503 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.062 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.342 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.623 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 71.26
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,239,252.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,508,162.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.08 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $518.9B
- Gamma Call Wall: $769 | Put Wall: $768 (Spot: $769.65)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: +11,280 contracts (Z +2.32, as of 2026-08-11)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -3.2% (as of 2026-08-12)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.65%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.95 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.79
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.28% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.30%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.32%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6760.0B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $964.0B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.3B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,796B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,923B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,075B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,794B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $69,352 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Leading indicator divergence: 3/5 leading signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β historically precedes repricing within 3-5 days.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -7.3% β growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 143 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 6/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β structural repricing risk elevated.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] Screener: ZBRA β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 67/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=4033)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: PANW β promotion-ready (6d on list, HIGH conviction 72/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=4033)).
- [INFO] Screener: NOV β promotion-ready (78d on list, HIGH conviction 61/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 48% (n=2059)).
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.37%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.9939000000 | Prev: 102.7868000000
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β17.4% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (β4.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (10):
[1] Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH jumps 18%, sparks over $1 billion in liquidations URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/ethereum-price-forecast-eth-jumps-18-sparks-over-1-billion-in-liquidations-202608192358 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 23:58:09 GMT
[2] US Treasury Department to buy back more longer-term bonds URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-treasury-department-to-buy-back-more-longer-term-bonds-202608192354 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 23:54:29 GMT
[3] Japan Imports (YoY) above expectations (26.5%) in July: Actual (27.8%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-imports-yoy-above-expectations-265-in-july-actual-278-202608192350 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 23:50:02 GMT
[4] Japan Exports (YoY) above forecasts (19.9%) in July: Actual (23.2%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-exports-yoy-above-forecasts-199-in-july-actual-232-202608192350 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 23:50:01 GMT
[5] US President Donald Trump announces "crushing economic operation" on Iran URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-president-donald-trump-announces-crushing-economic-operation-on-iran-202608192341 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 23:41:11 GMT
[6] Gold climbs above $4,500 as US Dollar, yields fall URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-climbs-above-4-500-as-us-dollar-yields-fall-202608192326 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 23:26:55 GMT
[7] Australian Dollar gains as Treasury buyback offsets hawkish Fed URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-gains-as-treasury-buyback-offsets-hawkish-fed-202608192321 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 23:21:00 GMT
[8] GBP/JPY Price Forecast: sellers take control below 50-day SMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-jpy-price-forecast-sellers-take-control-below-50-day-sma-202608192301 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 23:01:05 GMT
[9] Washington bought the Japanese Yen again without meaning to URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/washington-bought-the-japanese-yen-again-without-meaning-to-202608192228 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 22:28:58 GMT
[10] Pound Sterling's best level since May was made in Washington URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterlings-best-level-since-may-was-made-in-washington-202608192216 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 22:16:53 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Trump announces 'most crushing economic operation ever' against Iran Time: 2026-08-19T23:03:36.988Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 172 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 13 of 60 normal daily β 21.7% of normal
- Throughput: 20.9% of normal (2.1M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 350
- Oil Prices: Brent $93.26 (+0.56%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 50.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS200 (+300% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost