Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-19 14:02:29 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 17% (1 aligned, 5 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.442 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.06 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +5.8B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 67% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -7.1% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.44% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.51 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.06 normal, SPY/TNX -0.35 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.62 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.1 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 144 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.81 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 20 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d -0.6% stable, MOVE 75 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.75% moderate, NFCI -0.559 loose |
Divergence read: Moderate divergence β gamma, breadth, and inflation flash bullish while SPY tracks bearish. 5 of 6 signals disagree with price.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 80/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 80 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.442) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 5 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.442; GEX positive at 5.8B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads widening (stress building). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.1 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $770.11 | 50 SMA $749.84 | 200 SMA $706.28 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $769.28
- QQQ: $717.34 | 50 SMA $712.98 | 200 SMA $651.51 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $695.96
- IWM: $301.86 | 50 SMA $295.72 | 200 SMA $269.09 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $299.49
- VIX: 15.14 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.664%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $770.11 | 77.22 | 54.4 | $769.28 | Neutral | 0.92 |
| QQQ | $717.34 | 74.80 | 61.2 | $695.96 | Neutral | 1.43 |
| IWM | $301.86 | 67.03 | 30.7 | $299.49 | Neutral | 0.92 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.14 | 27.18 | 47.4 | $11.05 | Neutral | 0.97 |
| TNX | 46.64 | 58.20 | 35.4 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $411.90 | 70.30 | 29.9 | $389.35 | Bearish | 0.15 |
| DXY | 98.95 | 21.56 | 41.1 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $59.42 | 67.53 | 13.5 | $44.00 | Bearish | 0.34 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.442
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.77B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.75% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 1.00%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.52% (Healthy slope)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 66.6%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 71.1%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 247
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.7%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.2%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 100.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 86.1% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 83.3% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 80.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 69.6% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 69.2% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 65.1% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 64.1% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 53.7% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 35.3% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 25.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $85.09 (5d: +4.7%)
- Brent Crude: $92.18 | Spread: $7.09
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.9900/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.3400/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $59.39/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $63.72
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.20
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.508 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.062 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.348 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.621 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 74.98
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 2,530,617.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 2,682,273.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.06 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $401.4B
- Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $765 (Spot: $770.11)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: +11,280 contracts (Z +2.32, as of 2026-08-11)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -3.2% (as of 2026-08-12)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket none Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.66%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.96 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.95
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.27% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.30%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6760.0B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $964.0B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,796B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,863B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,036B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,695B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $68,644 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -7.1% β growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 144 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 5/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β structural repricing risk elevated.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] SPY (769.46) reclaimed ZGL (769.28) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] SPY (769.07) dropped below ZGL (769.29) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [INFO] Screener: 5 fresh PRIMED high-conviction name(s) for 2026-08-19 β IRM (conviction 77/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=3940)); EQIX (conviction 70/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=3940)); AVB (conviction 69/100, range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=3940)); MOG-A (conviction 68/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=3940)); ATI (conviction 67/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=3940)). Calibrated setups only; decision-support, not advice.
- [INFO] Screener: ANET β promotion-ready (7d on list, HIGH conviction 71/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=3940)).
- [INFO] Screener: OKTA β promotion-ready (6d on list, HIGH conviction 70/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 51% (n=3940)).
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.38%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.9939000000 | Prev: 102.7868000000
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-08-25
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-09-04
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β2.7% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β17.4% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (β4.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β2.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (1):
[1] Mexican Peso rallies to two-year high on US Treasury buyback URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexican-peso-rallies-to-two-year-high-on-us-treasury-buyback-202608191749 Published: Wed, 19 Aug 2026 17:49:35 GMT
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 172 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 1 of 60 normal daily β 1.4% of normal
- Throughput: 1.5% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 449
- Oil Prices: Brent $93.26 (+0.56%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 50.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS285 (+470% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost